Two stubborn decisions cost the Twins the AL Central crown last season. One was the prolonged demotion of Fransico Liriano following some early-season hiccups in his comeback from Tommy-John surgery. In lieu of Liriano, who was busy dominating his AAA competition (to the tune of a 10-2 record, 3.28 ERA and 113 K in 118.2 innings), the Twins were riding the Livan Hernandez express to an early offseason. Livan did "earn" ten victories (versus eight losses), but his peripheral stats were abominable; a 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and only 3.5 K/9. Liriano's AAA tune-up could easily have been cut in half; this, in concert with the release of Livan Hernandez (which happened anyways, though far too late in the season) would have certainly resulted in the Twins gaining the game of separation needed to edge the White Sox in the AL Central (in case you don't remember, they ended in a 89 W tie, forcing a one-game play-in in Chicago, which the Sox took 1-0 on a Thome moon shot).
The second decision that ultimately cost the Twins the playoffs was leaving Carlos Gomez in the lineup for the entirety of the season. Perhaps even worse than his extended stay in the lineup was his extended stay in the leadoff spot (.298 OPS), which he occupied during the early part of the year, prior to the Denard Span explosion. "Go-go" repaid the organizations faith in him by posting a .686 OPS in 577 AB's, and displaying questionable timing and marginal effectiveness as a base-stealer (75 SB%, 10% below the elusive "effective" SB% threshold). Gomez's EqA was a paltry .243 adjusted for the season, and his BRAA (batting runs above average, the # of runs better than a hitter w/a .260 EqA, given the same number of outs) was -12. And all this time, Jason Kubel (perhaps the Twins' third-best hitter, .284 EqA) was receiving inconsistent playing time at best.
In fairness to Gomez, he did grade out as the second-best defensive outfielder in the game, trailing only Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, by posted a 116 Zone Rating (16 runs above average) last year. In fact, when considering purely defensive contributions, Gomez was a very effective player last season (the only caveat being questionable decision making, leading to a high number of errors and ill-advised throws). In this way, he was integral to the surprising success of the Twins' young starting rotation. However, the Twins were not without another stellar defensive option in CF, Denard Span (who was manning a right-field spot that could have easily been handled by Kubel and, when healthy, Cudyer).
Its hard to buy the argument that the Twins were playing to win in 2008 by starting a player with a sub-.300 OBP. Rather, the company line will be that Gomez was taking the proverbial lumps, developing as a player and maturing as a person in the major leagues. Equally likely was that Twins management wanted quick returns on what many industry insiders considered a disappointing haul for Johan Santana, especially in light of the names that had been thrown around early in the process (Hughes, Lester, Ellsbury). From a player development perspective, playing 2008 in the results-based major leagues, even through long periods of offensive ineptitude, likely hindered Gomez's development, compared to what he should have been able to accomplish in double or triple-A. Further, adding another offensive black hole to a team that (at one point or another) featured Nick Punto, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe, Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher was something that the Twins could ill afford, especially when it took AB's away from Jason Kubel and fellow offensive savant Delmon Young.
This season, Gomez is off to a terrible start. And not just in the batters box, where he is currently hitting .103 (3 for 29, with 2 XBH). Gomez started off spring training by stating his desire to become a middle-of-the-order bat, a thirty home-run corner outfield type, essentially nullifying all of his most positive attributes as a baseball player. He backed up this claim by reporting to camp noticeably thicker in the midsection and legs; make no mistake, the added weight was muscle, but early returns are not good. Gomez appears to have lost some of the eye-popping explosiveness he displayed last season, especially when initially leaving the batters box. Additionally, this extra mass has not resulted in additional power. After posting a .360 SLG last year, squaring up the baseball certainly should have been an emphasis, however adding more loft to what was already an uppercut swing was clearly not the solution the Twins were hoping for, nor has it worked in the early-going (.207 SLG in '09).
To be fair, because of his defensive contributions, Gomez will remain an adequate player this season. Last year he was eight runs above replacement level offensively (BRAR) and a robust forty runs defensively (RAR). This dwarfed that of Delmon Young, 25 BRAR offensively while being essentially neutral defensively vs. a replacement (1 RAR), equating to approximately ten runs below average (-10 RAA). 46>>26, especially at a premium defensive position. (Perhaps a better way to read this is that Young is one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors, but with enough speed around him, he may be able to be hidden.) Additionally, Young played LF, downplaying his best defensive attribute, an 75-80 arm, which plays best in right. Denard Span occupied this right field spot, where he was 38 RAR (along with 30 BRAR), making him by far the most valuable asset in the Twins outfield. A highlight machine, Span's defensive productivity still compares very favorably to Gomez's. With Gardenhire seemingly intent on Michael Cuddyer manning right (and batting third or forth in Mauer's absence), and Delmon Young (LF) in need of AB's, Gomez's demotion would clear up the OF situation in the short-term.
Based on a purely statistical analysis, one might suggest that it is Young, not Gomez, who should be optioned to AAA. Delmon and Carlos are essentially the same age, but Young has an additional year of service time in the majors and, unlike Gomez, has very little left to prove at the minor league level (career .880 OPS). Additionally, Delmon Young was the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, a testament to his otherworldly natural gifts, and possesses the frame and brute strength to hit 20-25 HR from the right side of the plate (important to balance the left-handed power contributions of Mauer, Morneau and Kubel). His approach at the plate was no doubt broken last year (though he has finally resolved to pull the ball this season), and some have wondered whether he has a fundamental pitch-recognition problem. Nevertheless, at this point in time, he is closer to becoming a competent offensive performer than Gomez, especially as Gomez remains mired in a disturbing liminal state, uncertain of whether he is a speedster or a burgeoning power hitter. A month, maybe two, in a low pressure environment should help him sort out some of the problems that have arisen in the past year, and get him back on track to becoming the star his talent suggests he can be.
