Shakeup in the ATL: McLouth In, Gorkys Out

Contributor: Seamus

And with that, we have our first major trade news of the '09 season (that doesn't involve a high-profile hayseed pitcher blue-balling the White Sox); Nate McLouth has been traded to the Atlanta Braves for a package of Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton.  The Braves has certainly "utilized" a farm system that at one-point-or-another over the past three years included Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hanson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Heyward, Elvis Andrus, Jordan Schafer, Gorkys Hernandez, Gregor Blanco and youngsters Jeff Locke, Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran.  Of these players, only Heyward, Freeman and Teheran remain on Braves-affiliated minor league rosters.  Hanson, at long last, has been promoted to the big leagues, just in time to avoid a grade-A conniption fit from yours truly; soon he will reunite with CF Blanco, and eventually Schafer, who made the club out of spring training but has since been demoted.  Feliz, Saltalamacchia and Andrus, on the other hand, were dealt for approximately one year of Mark Teixeria, and later turned into Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.  And now Hernandez, Locke and Morton (a successful 25 year-old Triple-A pitcher who struggled in his first big league action ('08)), are headed to Pittsburgh in exchange for McLouth, a 27 year-old corner outfielder whose ludicrous 2008 Gold Glove award may see him miscast as a center fielder for another year or two (though I would guess he will play at least some left field for the Braves).  McLouth, a career .288 EqA hitter over three full[ish] seasons, is posting an impressive .299 EqA in 2009, though he has regressed from his aberrational 2008 numbers (.276/.356/.497) towards his career norms (.261/.339/.462) by posting a .256/.349/.470 thus far in '09, very good but hardly elite production.  McLouth's EqA is also helped by his penchent for stealing bases--and for rarely being caught (64 steals, caught only five times career).  Contracturally controlled through 2011, McLouth should help the Brave's stagnant offense in a way that off-season signee Garrett Anderson was simply incapable of at his advanced age.  In addition, it will remove some of the organizational pressure from the Braves player development people, as Jason Heyward (who was recently placed on the DL in Hi-A Myrtle Beach with a hip-flexor injury) can now take his sweet time to develop instead of being rushed to the big leagues as a band-aid fix for a floundering offense.  (Although, after holding Hanson down as long as they did, I doubt this would have ever become an issue.)

On the minor league side, the Braves farm system will suffer the departure of yet another highly-regarded prospect, Gorkys Hernandez, batting champion of both the Rookie Gulf Coast League and the Lo-A Midwest League since being stolen from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria heist.  To be fair, Hernandez is a CF lead-off type, a role the Braves currently have a surplus of suitors for.  Even after ineffective big leaguers Anderson, Francouer and Diaz are (presumably) shipped out of town, the Braves can still count on a McLouth, Schafer/Blanco, Heyward outfield in the coming years, not too shabby if future happenings approximate current player projections.  If they don't, however, this could well become another move the team regrets.  Assuming Schafer or Blanco sticks in center, Hernandez would have immediately become one of the premiere corner outfield defenders in all of baseball, and if center field were to open up (not outside the realm of possibility), Hernandez would also have been capable of manning that position admirably.  A true range rover with a strong, accurate throwing arm, Hernandez is everything you look for in an outfielder.  With the bat, however, Gorkys has struggled somewhat since his promotion to Hi-A Myrtle Beach, posing a .268/.348/.387 over a full slate of games in '08.  While it is not uncommon for youngsters to struggle offensively following a promotion, this particular stat line highlights one problem with Hernandez's game, a marked lack of power.  To his credit, he did steal 20 bases, nevertheless, concerns may have lingered that he would never have provided the power necessary to justify a corner-OF spot, assuming the talented Schafer remains in center.  And with an organizational surplus of similar players, losing Gorkys was a blow the Braves were willing to absorb.  Ditto Morton, who doesn't look to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation/mop-up guy with his unremarkable repertoire and makeup.  Jeff Locke would have caused me to hesitate, however.  Locke is a pitbull on the mound, whose awkward delivery (leading to an all-to-often inconsistent release point) can make it hard for opposing hitters to pick up on his low-to-mid nineties fastball.  True, Locke struggled last season for Lo-A Rome, but "telecast" numbers are of relatively little consequence for A-ball hurlers (if peripherals are okay), and with 113 SO to only 38 BB, Braves officials had to have liked what they saw, at least in-part.  Pirates GM Doug Littlefield certainly did.

  

Still, I can't help but wonder if the Pirates could have made out better in this deal.  Perhaps this is just conditioning (call it the "VanBenschoten-Bullington-[Moskos?]-effect"), as i have very little faith in anything Pirates mgmt does; whatever the case, this will most certainly be better than swapping Bay for An. LaRoche, Moss and Hansen, or Nady for Olendorf, Karstens and Tabata.  It's not that they got fleeced by any stretch of the imagination, but this is rather early in the season to trade a coveted asset like McLouth, especially considering he hasn't exactly been riding a hot-streak lately (or done anything of note to push his value up).  Then again, the market on "CF's" isn't exactly booming right now and, pending injury, doesn't look to heat up substantially in the future--try and think of a contender who both desperately needs a CF-upgrade and has the resources to pull off such a deal.  (One such team, the Mets desperately need a corner-outfielder and have plenty of money, but simply do not have the prospects to compete with Atlanta's package).  And, to be fair, McLouth is no longer a center fielder; perhaps the early consummation of this deal was simply an implicit recognition of this fact by Pirates mgmt; thus dealing McLouth while his value was falsely inflated (playing essentially out of position) becomes clever and devious.  Whatever the case, Littlefield has to be excited about his future outfield duo of Hernandez and recently recalled Andrew McCutcheon (more so if he manages to land a right fielder with some power (Bradon Moss: 144 AB/HR this year)).  Assuming retention of the LaRoche brothers, perhaps this bat will be that of Pedro Alvarez, currently posting a .240/.344/.448 line (50 G), with 9 HR and 41 driven-in for Lynchburg of the Carolina League...is it safe to assume he'll be roaming right field in PNC next season?  It hardly matters, as Pittsburgh is probably at least a few years away from contending (to break .500, that is); however it plays out, kudos to the Braves for promoting Hanson (finally); the righty will start his first game on Saturday versus the Brew Crew.  Hear, hear!

On ESPN's Pedroia Priapism, Boston Bukkake Bashes and the Onset of Minnfarction Mike Fontenot Bandwagoning

Contributor: Bombykol

It says a lot about ESPN's stranglehold on American sports culture that Dustin Pedroia is now a household name.  Yes, he was American League R.O.Y. in 2007.  Then again, so was Angel Berroa four years earlier; the former Royals shortstop has yet to attain such widespread recognition (because he's dreadfully shitty).  Pedroia is a very good major league baseball player, but he is hardly alone in that regard.  Fellow AL East second basemen Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano and Aki Iwamura are also very good big league players; in fact, all but Iwamura have handily out-performed Pedroia in 2009.  And none of them can claim to be the best second baseman in the American League--that distinction falls to Ian Kinsler.  Now, this is not intended to discredit Pedroia, it is rather meant to serve as a passive-aggressive lambasting of the East Coast sports media.  Pedroia does a lot of thing extremely well on a baseball field, still, players such as him come along relatively frequently.  They only garner substantial accolades, however, when they happen to land in a major media market.  Want evidence?  A "scrappy," former Red Sox second base prospect surfaced in the National League Central several years ago, whereupon he clobbered 53 doubles, won a batting title, and recently recorded a six-hit game.  If this had been Pedroia, the six hit outburst would have lead SportsCenter (and therefore superseded the Coors Light 'Six Pack of Questions' on "What's wrong with Papi?").  As it was, Freddy Sanchez's performance was little more than an afterthought...it didn't even earn comparable air-time to Jacoby Ellsbury's wholly uninteresting 12 put-out game, which any sane person would have let pass unnoticed just a few nights earlier.  And then yesterday afternoon, a player bearing an even greater semblance to Pedroia had what was essentially his break-out performance in an otherwise dismal '09.  He is a relative unknown, and as such, did not earn more than a mention on last night's Baseball Tonight.  Still, many would be surprised to know than on a per-AB basis, Mike Fontenot nearly matched Dustin Pedroia's production during his grossly-overrated, "banner" 2008 campaign.  How can this be, and how does Fontenot remain unknown outside of Wrigleyville (and Baton Rouge), owned in a measly 12.0% of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues?  More importantly, why is he still fighting for at bats with the likes of Aaron Miles, Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco?

Perhaps Fontenot's platoon days are nearing an end.  The 5'8" infielder (finally) showed signs of breaking out of his season-long slump yesterday, going two for three with a walk, two extra base hits and two RBI.  After the game, Lou Pinella announced that Fontenot would serve as the Cubs' regular third baseman in Aramis Ramirez's absence, a long overdue opportunity for the former LSU star to get consistent at-bats and, hopefully, to jump-start his season.  Assuming Fontenot does not play abhorrently in the coming days, he should rightfully assume complete control of the starting second base job once Ramirez returns; this is not to say that he will, as Pinella has used a variety of second-basemen in 2009 (including Miles (.204), Scales (.250), Blanco (.111) and former LSU double-play mate and current starting SS Ryan Theriot).

  

Meanwhile, in Boston, Dustin Pedroia pushed his season average to .328.  The aforementioned BoSox two-bagger won the AL MVP last year with an impressive, yet hardly-unparalleled season (think '07 Jimmy Rollins lite).  The East Coast media responded by collectively declaring the Red Sox second baseman a low-level deity, an unlikely love-child of Pete Rose and David Eckstein.  Now, Dustin is Fenway Royalty, Bean Town's guilded grinder, a talent-starved cardiomegaliac and God's own gift to baseball clichés (and balding 24 year olds).

Yet Fontenot, playing in a similarly adoring market (sans the omnipotent media presence), managed to fly under the radar, despite Pedroia-esque production over nearly 300 PA.  How can this be, with bulldogs like Jay Mariotti on the beat?  Cubs fans, continue drinking away your analytical reasoning skills; the rest of you, I believe a comparison is in order.  In comparing Fontenot to Pedroia, it would be nice to establish a relatively 'even' playing field (we could use per AB production, but that wouldn't be terribly enlightening outside of the comp itself).  Granted, Fontenot was (almost exclusively) a platoon-player last season, which nullifies the usefulness of a straight-up multiplicative extrapolation based on PA's (Mike logged only 25 PA versus left-handers all season).  Still, extrapolating out Fontenot's numbers based on his splits is not difficult, and it provides some illuminating truths in regards to his fundamental homologousness with Pedroia.

  

Pedroia’s 2008 PA allocation: 726 total; 545 vs. RHP, 181 vs. LHP

  

With this knowledge at hand, the question becomes 'how do we think Fontenot would have performed given 545 PA vs. RHP's and 181 PA vs. LHP's?  And to reach a quantitative answer, all that is needed are ratios.  This was as straight-forward as they come for Fontenot's production against righties, as his 259 PA's in 2008 provided an adequate sample-size for extrapolation (545/259 = 2.10x, our multiplicative factor for "counting stats").  His performance against lefties, however, required a larger number of plate-appearances than the 25 he logged in 2008 in order to guard against the prospect of random-chance anomalies.  To this end, Fontenot's career splits ('07-'09) were employed, consisting of 79 PA's versus southpaws (181/79 = 2.29x).

  

Fontenot’s selected PA allocation: 259 PA vs. RHP (’08), 79 PA vs. LHP (career)

  

2008 statistics vs. RHP (in 259 PA): 222 AB, 40 R, 67 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, 32 BB, 45 SO, .302 BA, .393 OBP, .518 SLG, .308 EqA

  

Extrapolated 2008 performace against RHP (per 545 PA): 466 AB, 84 R, 141 H, 40 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 79 BB, 95 SO, .302 BA, .393 OBP, .518 SLG

  

Career statistics vs. LHP (in 79 PA): 73 AB, 11 R, 18 H, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB, 21 SO, .245 BA, .305 OBP, .370 SLG

  

Extrapolated 2008 performance against LHP (per 181 PA): 167 AB, 25 R, 41 H, 13 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 18 RBI, 14 BB, 48 SO, .245 BA, .305 OBP, .370 SLG

  

We now can combine Fontenot's stats vs. righties and lefties into an integrated line for his hypothetical, 726 PA 2008 season.  Below is the comparison of Pedroia's MVP season and Fontenot's expanded '08 campaign:

  

Pedroia (2008, over 726 PA): 653 AB, 118 R, 213 H, 54 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, 1 CS, 50 BB, 52 SO, .326 AVG, .376 OBP, .493 SLG

  

Fontenot (adjusted for 726 PA): 633 AB, 109 R, 182 H, 53 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 93 BB, 143 SO, .288 BA, .378 OBP, .472 SLG

  

(Fontenot (2008, actual numbers): 284 PA, 243 AB, 42 R, 72 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, 34 BB, 51 SO, .395 OB, .514 SLG)

  

Thus, it becomes evident that at-bat for at-bat, Pedroia and Fontenot were very similar players in 2008.  Any advantage that Pedroia had by virtue of a higher batting average (30 more hits in only 20 additional AB's), would have been essentially nullified by Fontenot's superior patience at the plate (43 additional walks).  Pedroia did, however, produce better power numbers than Fontenot, but this should be taken with a giant grain of salt due to the 'Green Monster effect.'  Over the course of his career, Pedroia has hit a whopping 55 points higher in Fenway, to go with a 46-point bump in on-base average, and a dizzying increase of 88 SLG% points; this is in no small part due to a ridiculous .356 BABIP in Boston (again, a staggering 61 points higher than on the road).  In a more objective comparison, Pedroia grades-out as the better base-runner, although his both his '08 SB total and percentage were likely aberrational; Dustin has swiped a mere 15 bags in 218 contests held outside of the year 2008, and has been successful on only eight of twelve attempts this season.

  

Now, it should be noted that Fontenot, strictly a platoon player, is likely to have slightly inflated numbers against southpaws.  This is because Fontenot is usually removed from the game when faced with a challenging lefty matchup.  When he is allowed to stand-in, it is likely that the situation is stacked in his favor, at least to a degree.  Take, for instance, a situation in which he is set to face a mediocre LH mop-up reliever (i.e. Glendon Rusch) in the eighth inning of a 12-1 blow-out, or a LH middle-reliever who has trouble getting left-handed batters out (i.e Dan Meyer); allowing Fontenot to bat in these situations increases his odds of success, as opposed to if he were forced to stand in against Pedro Feliciano.  Whereas Pedroia will certainly be in the lineup to face C.C. Sabathia when the Yankees come to town, Fontenot will be a cheerleader when the Cubs square off against Johan Santana; Pedroia is thus consistently being put in a more difficult situation to succeed (at least against left-handers) than is Fontenot.  It is difficult to ascertain what degree of inflation these intricacies engender, nevertheless, they are worth keeping in the back of your mind while examining the splits.

  

Moving on, extending the comparison to additional [select] statistics reveals further relationality between the two players:

  

Pedroia: .307 EqA, .336 BABIP (.328 career), .167 ISO, 120.00 RC

  

Fontenot: .308 EqA, .355 BABIP (.332 career), .210 ISO, 139.72 RC (adjusted for 726 PA)

  

Ditto the defensive statistics.  Fontenot, in addition to grading out as a superior defensive second baseman, also has the versatility and arm strength to play both short and third, further increasing his value (though it should be noted that Pedroia did come up as a SS):

  

Pedroia: (448 A, 6 E) 10.5 UZR/150, 7.4 RngR, 2.7 ErrR

  

Fontenot: (143 A, 1 E) 18.1 UZR/150, 3.4 RngR, 1.4 ErrR

  

Again, I will explicitly reiterate that which may not be obvious: my intent here is not to minimize Dustin Pedroia's credentials as a very good, although not-quite-elite major leaguer.  Rather, I'm simply attempting to uncover empirical evidence to support claims that the national media's bukakke party with the BoSox has gotten completely out of hand.  This is no fault of Pedroia's, he is simply the benefactor.  Nevertheless, in cities west of the Eastern Seaboard, there are many magnificent baseball players performing at extremely high levels and playing the game in a manor similar to Pedroira.  Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Freddy Sanchez, Alberto, Callaspo, Ian Kinsler, Orlando Hudson, Augie Ojeda, Mark Ellis...these guys are consummate professionals, each of them playing their respective tails off on a nightly basis, hustling out grounders, leaving their feet on defense and charging headfirst into any catcher bold enough to block the plate.  And these are just a few players at one position (second)!  So to Crasnik, Bryant, Shaughnassey and Co...  Get your heads out of your asses, pony up sixteen dollars for a month of MLB.TV, and start channeling your inner Lewis and Clark...I guarantee as you venture west into the great unknown, you'll be pleasantly surprised with what you find.

"The Price is Wrong, Bitch": Hanson Remains in Triple-A While Dave Electrifies in St. Pete (Plus, What to do with B.J.?)

Contributor: Seamus

Can we collectively agree that Tommy Hanson's ongoing presence on a minor league roster has crossed over into the realm of complete and utter absurdity?  In his last start, the 22 year-old went seven strong, giving up only five hits and one earned while striking out nine (2 BB).  This means that Hanson has allowed only ten earned in 60.2 innings this season (1.48 ERA), while registering 82 strikeouts (12.16 K/9) and issuing a measly 17 walks (2.52 BB/9).  Not to mention his qualitative attributes, most notably, the nastiest four-pitch repertoire in the minor leagues (a few scouts have even said 'some of the best stuff in all of baseball').  Atlanta is 5-5 in their past 10 games, and currently sit 3.5 GB of division-leading New York.  Call up your dynamic workhorse righty stallion prodigy, already!  Jesus tapdancing Christ.
 

David Price, on the other hand, was promoted to 'the show' after posting a 1-4, 3.93 in 34.1 innings (Triple-A), including 35 strikeouts (9.17 per nine) and eighteen walks (4.72 per nine); he lost his first start against Cleveland, going 3.1 innings and allowing two earned, while striking out six and walking five.  His second start was against the Twins, today (5/30) in Tampa; as I am typing, he has just been pulled after an impressive outing.  Easily his best performance of 2009, the brawny southpaw threw 101 pitches in 5.2, fanning eleven while walking only two.  Early-season reports of his velocity settling in the 91-92 mph range were either apocryphal or context-dependent, as Price routinely sat between 92 and 94 mph Saturady, and threw pitches #97 and #100 in excess of 96 mph (albiet on Fox's juiced radar gun).  Perhaps Price, during his time in the minors, was focusing on generating additional movement on his fastball at the expense of velocity, with the understanding that the onus of each start was on implementation (i.e integration of a change-up, mechanical tweaks), not results.  Whatever the reason, this start has to be encouraging for the Rays (although Price needs to find a way to be more economical with his pitches), and equally frustrating for Tommy Hanson, who should expect his call-up to come [yesterday].

Price, however, is not the only Rays prospect deserved of attention; Desmond Jennings, an uber-athletic center fielder for Double-A Montgomery, has been raking in the tough Southern League after having his 2008 season dismantled by injuries.  Jennings is boasting an impressive .370/.438/.597 line (24 XBH, plus 16 steals) for the Biscuits, noteworthy as current Rays CF B.J. Upton continues to experience the repercussions of a rushed return from serious shoulder injury.  Upton is currently posting a measly .228 EqA for the Rays, and surely will not remain in the lineup much longer if results do not improve; still, as of May 30, manager Joe Maddon has yet to drop him from the lead-off spot, let alone the lineup entirely, suggesting the Rays are still at least one step away from a benching/D.L. stint for the elder Upton brother.  Nevertheless, if and when the Rays decide that this is the best course of action, would they consider promoting Jennings?

  

The answer, unfortunately for prospect-lovers, is no; we fans will most likely have to wait until September to see Jennings on a big league roster, with 2010 being his likely ETA as a starter.  Rather, the Rays will likely apply a multitude of creative, band-aid fixes to their unsettled outfield in '09, and they certainly have enough warm bodies to produce an offensively competent three-man outfield on a nightly basis.  However, with Fernando Perez out for the season (multiple knee ligament tears), no obvious defensive replacements exist for Upton in center.  Carl Crawford, a tremendous athlete who was once recruited to run the point for UCLA and to man the option quarterback position for the Cornhuskers, could presumably slide over; Crawford has logged 54 career games in center over an eight year career, though he hasn't manned the middle for more than ten games in any season since 2004 (30 G).  Still, this may be the most logical solution for the Rays, who have a bevy of serviceable corner outfield options, namely utilityman Ben Zobrist, (formerly elite) SS prospect Reid Brignac, the Gabes (Gross and Kapler), and current Durham Bulls masher (and former Detroit Tiger) Matt Joyce, acquired in the Edwin Jackson trade this offseason (Jackson, by the way, has 4 wins and a 2.78 ERA in '09).  Joyce, who has produced a laudable .315/.408/.530 line this season in Triple-A (21 XBH), would likely be the first call-up, perhaps providing an opening for Jennings in Durham.  Joyce and Gross, who are both essentially right-handed platoon players at this point, could share time with Kapler (who has hit lefties at a .313 clip since un-retiring last season), although it is likely that the promotion of Joyce would lead to the end of Gross' tenure with the team.  Zobrist would thus occupy the other outfield position, and his .685 SLG in '09 indicates that he has more-than-enough brawn for the task, at least in the short-term, until Upton and/or Pat Burrell are healthy enough to contribute.

  

This week also saw the placement of SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Aki Iwamura on the D.L.  Bartlett will return, allowing Willy Aybar to assume utility-IF duties (assuming Zobrist is relegated to an outfield spot), but Iwamura is done for the season.  What this means is a time-share situation with Brignac at second base, at least until one man asserts dominance and wrestles the job from the other.  And I wouldn't count on that.  Defensively, the once-highly-regarded offensive SS prospect Brignac has the edge, as he has turned himself into a tremendous defensive player over the past several years.  Concurrently, however, his offense has suffered, as Brignac hit only .260 (AA) and .250 (AAA) respectively over his past two minor league campaigns.  Aybar, on the other hand, is a career .274 EqA hitter--not bad for a temporary 2B fix . Additionally, Aybar boasts a very good 14.1 UZR/150 at second, although this is over an inadequate sample-size of only 38 games (81 attempts).  Aybar's physique screams corner infield (he is listed at 5'11", 205...nope), and his numbers at both first and third suggest he could be an above-average defender at those spots for extended periods of time.  But second base is a position requiring a great-deal of lateral mobility, and for a two-sacker with a lot of meat on his bones, he doesn't exactly move like Ronnie Belliard.  A platoon seems the most prudent course of action, in this regard.  As for whether any of this will actually happen...  I don't blame the Rays for being a little trigger shy about placing starters on the D.L. (Burrell, Kasmir, Percival, Bartlett, Iwamura).  Still, Upton does not appear to be improving, and he is far too talented a hitter to attribute this to a mere slump, especially given the temporal proximity of his injury rehab to his struggles.  Critics of this approach will point to his monster October as evidence that the shoulder can withstand the rigors of major league baseball, after all, he did have all offseason to rehab, the shoulder should only be stronger.  In addition, Upton has improved his average by eight points over the past 15 games, while logging hits in four straight games, and eight of nine.  But injuries do not always progress in an idealized fashion.  And Upton's average is still only .200, hardly encouraging, especially since during this same 15-game stretch he has 23 strikeouts, including three turkeys, and only three XBH.  Upton may not be aggravating his injury by playing, but a stint on the 15 day D.L. may just give him the rest he needs to reboot his season; it's sure worth a try, the Rays won't compete in the A.L. East if B.J. imitates 2008 Michael Bourn all season.

Also lighting up the prospect wire, Matt Weiters debuts tonight.  And I am positively giddy.  I've only seen him a handful of times, but from what I can tell, Weiters is going to be an offensive force, tall and strong with a gorgeous swing and a genuine presence at the plate.  (Despite some reports to the contrary, the towering Weiters will--at least in the foreseeable future--be a more-than-competent defender in the Joe Mauer mold, though he hardly an athletic equal to the MN backstop).  He carries himself with the confidence and conviction of a ten-year vet, and his swing is simple, unadorned and extremely quick through the hitting zone from the right and a left sides.  More coming on the Orioles phenom in a week or two, no doubt.  In addition, it appears the Cubs have finally called-up Jake Fox this week, after growing tired of his bugs-bunny offensive explosion going to waste in AAA Iowa (.424/.503/.881, 17 HR, 51 RBI in 41 games).  I expect he wil play primarily third base in Aramis Ramirez's absence, with Fontenot taking over at second, however Fox could also spell Lee at his natural position of 1B, allowing Fontenot to see time at third and Aaron Miles to man second.  Other notable call-ups either (a) already consummated or (b) rumored to be on the imminent horizon: Texas' Derek Holland (a), Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen (b), Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez (a) and, possibly by weeks end, the Chicago White Stockings' Gordon Beckham (b).

An Epitaph for the 2009 Chicago White Sox

Contributor: Wally

Jake Peavy has rejected the proposed trade with the Chicago White Sox, and will make his next start tomorrow when the Padres take on the Cubs.  I learned this news while sitting in a sports bar, surrounded by 32" HD televisions and, needless to say, I was quite distraught.  Highlight reels of Peavy played on short, repeating loops, strikeout after strikeout, 93 mph two-seamers on the black followed by tightly rotating benders, knee-bucklers and fist-pumps.  Breaking-news bulletins popped up every few minutes, analyst-lead roundtable discussions ensued and statements from both Peavy and his agent scrolled across the SportsCenter crawl.  It was like asking a smoking hot girl out on a date, being told that she'd think about it, and then going out to eat with a bud.  Right after you had placed your order, aforementioned girl simultaneously bursts onto 15 television screens until she completely surrounds you--every way you look, there she is.  Topless.  And dancing, all while holding up a sign that says she's getting back together with her old boyfriend, a balding 26 year-old who, though popular in high school, has spent the past six years drinking malt liquor and working at the DMV.  And then, just to top it off, a guy from the bar, against whom you are competing for a promotion and a pay raise, comes over and starts beating the p*ss out of you, continuing to bludgeon you even as you roll around the floor, screaming in agony.  (I apologize in advance, but there's one more piece of bad new: your boss, who was seated two tables over, was impressed by your assailant's conviction, and is leaning towards giving him the spot.  Heard it through the grapevine...sorry.)

  

Yesterday I stated that I was teetering on the precipice of a great abyss of apathy.  Well friends, today I would like to phlegmatically announce that I have taken that plunge.  The 2009 Chicago White Sox will show up to "The Cell" tomorrow D.O.A.  It's over, even in a muddled division.  In a matter of weeks, PECOTA's 72 W projection is going to look optimistic.  Again, I was blinded by my own fervor, only to have the metagrobolizing bitch of 'logic' put me right back in my place.

  

Anyone who knows me will guess (correctly) that this newfound indifference is a facade.  No matter.  Twins fans, I'm not going to give you the satisfaction of seeing me squirm for yet another year.  Now that Joe Mauer has completed his transmogrification into Ted Williams, throngs of hoodwinked optimists will stream into and out of the Metrodome each night, giggling and laughing as their team sacrifice bunts and situationally hits its way to a Central Division crown (and a hasty ALDS exit).  I will be left wandering the streets of Minneapolis, reciting my monody to the bums and nomads, crooning hushed epitaphs to the creatures of the night; and I will do it with the blatant overindulgence and brazen stentorianism that only 1980's power balladry can convey:

  

"When I was a child, I caught a fleeting glimpse, out of the corner of my eye.  I turned to look, but it was gone, I cannot put my finger on it now, the child is grown, the dream is gone.  I have become comfortably numb." (Gilmore)

Or maybe I'll just start rooting for the (now-Rickie Weeks-less) Milwaukee Brewers, although as I type, they're in the process of getting trounced by Mike Cuddyer and the Twins...go figure.

  

Returning to the defunct Peavy trade talks, at least the White Sox get to keep LH fireballer Aaron Poreda.  After the debacles that were the Sox careers of Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch, Dan Wright and Charlie Haegar, Lance Broadway (currently unfolding) and the trading-away of promising youngsters Brandon McCarthy, Fautino De Los Santos and Gio Gonzalez (twice) at some point or another over the past several seasons, it would be nice to see a top pitching prospect have some semblance of success in the Sox rotation.  And, so long as Sox mgmt isn't sold on D.J. Carasco (they're not), an empty spot will likely open up in the rotation at some point.  Just promise me there will be no more Jose Contreras.  Please, I've been through enough.

  

The Peavy deal remains on the table, and would be finalized within minutes were Peavy to waive his no-trade clause.  But this doesn't seem likely; even Ken Williams, architect of the deal from Chicago's side, told reporters "we're not exactly going to wait around for him."  Translation: time to start looking elsewhere for starting pitching, perhaps Cinncinati or Oakland, should their seasons' respective bottoms fall out.  During the offseason, Cinncinati discussed sending Homer Bailey to Chicago in exchange for the Sox's best hitter, Jermaine Dye.  Homer Bailey, once a can't miss wunderkid in the Josh Beckett mold, has begun to suffer from some serious prospect fatigue; there's only so much time a guy can remain in an organization's pipeline before fans and front office types alike begin to tire of potential, demanding instead, results.  Chicago, at this point, should not be looking to move Dye for anything other than a bevy of good prospects; dealing an offensively-challenged team's most formidable threat for a "win-now" type pitcher (read: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo) doesn't make much sense.  Oakland is harder to figure, but pitchers such as the surprising Dallas Braden (ugh) and Dana Eveland may be made available for the right combination of prospects.  Not exactly Jake Peavy...damn no trade clauses!

  

The first player in baseball to demand a no-trade clause was Andy Messersmith, in his 1975 contract re-negotiation with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  (It was after owner Peter O'Malley's refusal, and Messersmith's masterful, Cy Young-winning performance in '75 without a contract, that the historic "Seitz decision" was passed down, dictating that player's were to become free agents after playing a season without a contract in place, thus nullifying the old "reserve clause.")  Andy Messersmith: you sir, are a douchebag.  No-trade clauses are bullshit.  If you wish to earn in excess of ten million dollars annually, and the organization that is facilitating this ridiculousness deems that it is in its own best interest to move you to another team (where your salary will still be paid in full), then that's their right.  Also, let's get rid of opt-out clauses; there's absolutely no reason that A-Rod needed to opt-out of a contract that would have paid him $252 million over ten seasons in order to negotiate a contract that will now pay him $275 million over a renewed ten-year period.  $23 million dollars is exactly 8.3% of his current contract, or approximately what Rodriguez earned during the year 2003; this is a formidable amount of money, and a substantial raise that he certainly should have been entitled to...after the expiration of his first nauseatingly fatuous, asinine contract.  And, as long as we're (vaguely) on the subject, the next time a Nick Saban or Bobby Petrino-type wishes to simply walk out on his contractual obligation (that is, coaching a goddamn sports team for tens of millions of dollars), let's give them an ultimatum(*).  You have great lives, and jobs that most blue-collar workers would disembowel a kitten to land.  These jobs also happen to compensate you in the top percentile of all citizens of the United States.  So how about this; we'll call it the Larry Brown Law: *Honor your contract, or we will put you in jail until the time that it expires.  You want to leave for the NFL, Saban.  Go for it; we'll see how running LSU's football program stacks up against giving handjobs for cigarettes (my guess is 'quite unfavorably').

  

And so to Andy Messersmith, arbitrator Peter Seitz, Judge John Oliver, MLBPA chair Donald Fehr and uber-agent Scott Boras (and colleagues), I would like to wish upon you the contraction of non-lethal cases of dysentery H1N1: may you spend the next month on the toilet or in government quarantine, chotchbags.  Also, I'd like to offer my congratulations to the White Sox on their run yesterday.  Because a 20-0 loss would have been really embarrassing.

Mmm...Drown Me in the Sweet Waters of Your Envy, Twins Fans (And Cuck the Fubbies, Too)

Contributor: Wally

After losing 12 of 16, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the upstart Blue Jays (in which they scored a paltry eight runs), I was preparing myself to write an epitaph for the 2009 Chicago White Sox.  However, two consecutive wins against the rival Twins kept me merely toeing the precipice of beautiful indifference--that stressless, liminal void of rooting indolence and langour usually reserved for fans of the Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Twins ('71-August '87, '89-'90, '93-'00, '07) organizations.  Still, I was ready to succumb at the first sign of discord, to hurl my mortal fandom into this Utopian abyss of desensitization.  That is, until a heavenly chorus, under direction of archangel Peter (Gammons), lifted me from the proverbial ledge and--with tidings of Peavy--laid me softy to rest on the outfield turf of U.S. Cellular Field.

The Kenny Williams regime has a history of making "big splashes," usually front-line pitching acquisitions that have done little more than generate pre-season buzz amongst the fanbase.  First was Toronto ace David Wells, the overweight, gregarious crapulent, fresh off a 20-8, 4.11 ERA (123 ERA+) season in which he logged 226.1 innings and a retro-fabulous 9 CG.  Perhaps Boomer succumbed to arm fatigue in 2001, his first and only in Chicago, as he managed only a 5-7 record and 4.47 ERA in 100.2 innings.  Still Wells, renowned for his "rubber arm," was back to his old tricks in 2002, winning 19 games during the first of four consecutive 200+ inning seasons...for the Yankees.  (Mike Sirotka, on the other hand, was not so fortunate, as the majority of his right arm musculature had been surgically excised prior to the consummation of the initial Wells trade.)  Undeterred by the events of '01, Williams returned to the phone-lines in the offseason of '02, managing to land Pirtates' ace[ish] Todd Ritchie.  At the time, the shrewd move was actually lauded by pundits despite Ritchie's solid-but-unspectacular 2001 campaign in Pittsburgh (11-15, 4.47 (102 ERA+)), and a certain young boy's incessant, profanity-laced tirades to the contrary.  Ritchie rewarded the confidence of scouts and prognosticators alike by delivering a 5-15 record in 23 starts, all while finding time to post a 6.06 ERA (74 ERA+) and a truly abysmal 1.706 WHIP.  That was the beginning of the end for the lefty, as Ritchie mustered only an unsuccessful stint as a spot-starter for the '03 Brewers before being evacuated from the league through long-time American League sphincter Tampa Bay.

And so it came to pass that in the year 2003, White Sox management would make yet another bold maneuver, acquiring current five-starter and Buffalo Wild Wings Wall-of-Famer Bartolo Colon.  Unlike Wells, endurance did not prove to be a problem for Barty, as he logged a career-high 242 innings and a Wellsian 9 complete games (including a bevy of sub-45 degree, short-sleeved, bad-assed expositions).  Tenure with the team did prove to be a problem, however, as Colon departed the following off-season for Anaheim, whereupon he recorded 39 victories and a Cy Young Award before (i) breaking down, (ii) resurfacing with Boston (with noticeably reduced velocity and a noticeably more elephantine physique), and (iii) re-signing with Chicago for the 2009 season (yip-ee).  Finally showing signs of discouragement, Williams' next major move was of the relatively unpublicized variety: the extension of a non-roster invitation to Mexican starter Esteban Loaiza in spring training of 2004.  Loaiza, to his credit (and that of Don Cooper who, not surprisingly, added a cut-fastball to Esteban's repertoire), went on to reward the Sox with the best season of his career, a 21-9 effort, highlighted by a stellar 2.90 ERA, a career-high 207 strikeouts and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young Award balloting.  Regardless, Loaiza was gone by the following season's trade deadline (9-5, 4.86), shipped to the Yankees in exchange for 59 year-old Cuban expatriate Jose Contreras, who would go on to become Chicago's de facto playoff ace in 2005.  Before that could happen, however, Williams fetched himself another discount gem in '04, Seattle's former-ERA champion Freddy Garcia.  Together with Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and El Duque, the quintet lead Chicago to the 2005 World Series title (with a sparkling 11-1 postseason record), their first championship in 89 years.  2005 offseason acquisition Orlando Hernandez, while not needed as a starter in the '05 playoffs, did provide the Sox with a truly iconic moment, pitching out of a no-out, bases-loaded jam in the ALDS-clinching game in hostile Fenway Park.  His reward?  The following off-season, he was dealt (along with CF prospect Chris Young) to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Javier Vasquez.  The rest, they say, is history.  And by that, I mean that my doctor has advised me not to speak of Vasquez again, as doing so would put me at high risk of supraorbital vein rupture.  (In case you're interested, he's in Atlanta now, and frankly, I don't give a sh*t.)

Youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd aside (as their 'prospect sheen' had worn off far prior to each of their respective acquisitions), Jake Peavy constitutes the latest development in the Sox's ongoing search for high-profile pitching talent.  Now the only question is, will he waive his full no-trade clause and green-light the deal?

  

Jake Peavy will earn eleven million dollars this season.  He lives in San Diego, CA, where Acuweather.com projects the average temperature to be exactly 64 degrees for the next four days (until a spike to 67 on Tuesday); each day is expected to be mostly sunny, and why not?  From a baseball perspective, Peavy's ERA is nearly one whole run higher away from cavernous Petco Park, and Qualcom Stadium before it.  Peavy has spent his entire career with the Padres, and currently stands at 41-27 at home, with an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .219; on the road, he is 45-35 with a 3.80 ERA and a BAA of .246, still very good, but not as transcendently great as his home splits.  However, things may not be as ballpark-dependent as they initially seem.  Yes, Peavy's HR rate nearly doubles on the road, but more importantly (discounting balls put in play), Peavy strikes out fewer hitters and walks more on the road (9.52 K/9 @ home, 8.32 on the road; 2.59 BB/9 @ home, 3.27 BB/9 on the road).  Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I'd venture to say that much of this is likely unrelated to stadium dimensions and the psychological implications/emboldenment considerations resulting from pitching half of one's games in a noted pitcher's park.  Rather, other intricacies of road baseball--differing mound anatomy/slope, novel air conditions (effecting pitch break/control), hostile crowd noise, and generally less-familiar surroundings both leading up to (i.e sleep quality) and during the game--likely play prominently into this disparity, which (upon examining the sample set of all pitchers) is not uncommon, in-and-of itself.  No doubt a pitcher with a career GO/AO (ground-out to air-out) ratio of 0.98, although with a respectable HR/FB of 7.6%, will be justifiably nervous committing himself to pitch in the bandbox that is "The Cell" (Derek Lowe, by comparison, has a career GO/AO ratio of 1.73, HR/FB = 7.4 %).  Additionally, Peavy is a career .178 batter, .233 and .265 the past two years respectively, and has expressed (via his agent) a strong preference to remain in the National League.  So will he waive the no-trade clause?  The Padres are going nowhere, they have very little help in the pipeline, and their offense (save Adrian Gonzalez) is as anemic as any that has come along in the past decade.  Peter Gammons has reported that a call was placed to former-Friar and current ChiSox RP Scott Linebrink, who gave a ringing endorsement of both the organization and his polarizing manager.  If I had to put odds on it right now, I'd say 3:2 in favor of staying, although I hope I'm wrong.   If for no other reason, than so I can say:

"Mmm, the tears of unfathomable sadness...Twins fans, your tears are so sweet and cool on my tongue...drown me in the misty waterfalls of your sorrow, yes...YESSSSSS..."

On Future Sunrises Over Event Horizons

Contributor: Bombykol

According to the statistical savants at Baseball Prospectus, the Milwaukee Brewers have a 49.6% chance of making the playoffs: 30.4% as division champs, and 19.2% as the wild card.  Most of these percentage points are attributable to two factors: the offense, and the golden arm (&, recently, bat) of Yovani Gallardo.  The 50.4% chance they will miss the playoffs is mostly attributable to the other four arms in the Brewers rotation, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper.  While Bush has been surprisingly effective this year (2-0, 3.83), Parra, Suppan and Looper all have ERA+'s below 95 (100*LG ERA/ERA), WHIP's above 1.487 and SO/BB rates below 2.0.  Not exactly playoff material, especially considering that Dave Bush is essentially a league-average, .500 pitcher for his career, and he was markedly less than that last season during a strange home/road platoon with Seth McClung. 

Obviously the Brewers need pitching.  Badly.  But after last year's trade for C.C. Sabathia, in which Matt Laporta was dealt (along with Rob Bryson, Zack Jackson and Matt Brantley), they are startlingly short on tradeable assets, at least those of the "top prospect, nearly-ready-for-the-show" variety.  Two such guys, Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, are likely untouchable, and with Bret Lawrie moving out from behind the plate (to second base), the Brewer's duo of catching prospects (Angel Salmone and Jonathan Lucroy) is unlikely to be split up anytime soon.  So, to deal prospects or to play for the future?  It's a conundrum, and in the balance hangs the season of the '09 Brew Crew; pretty weighty stuff for GM Doug Melvin and Co.  One would assume all trade options are being pursued, yet is hamstringing the future for yet another band-aid fix really the best idea for this dynamic young group of hitters (& Gallardo)?

First, what do the Brewers have in terms of tradable assets at the big league level?  J.J. Hardy is currently struggling amidst the pressures of a contract year (he signed a one-year, 4.65 million dollar deal in January); being as his contract expires after the season, teams likely won't be chomping at the bit to acquire the (expensive) services of a .696 OPS hitter whom they would only control for four more months.  Likewise, Mike Cameron is in the last season of his current deal, a campaign that will net the 36 year-old ten million dollars.  Unlike Hardy, however, he has rewarded the organization's commitment in him by posting a .968 OPS and a team-high 16.2 VORP through May 16.  What's more, Cameron's name has been floated in trade discussions before, most prominently in off-season talks with the Yankees.  The essence of these talks were more economic than strategic, however, with the Brewers looking to unload Cameron's afore-mentioned whale of a contract, and the Yankees equally ready to rid themselves of the vastly overrated Melky Cabrera (who is currently under contract for one year & 1.4 million).  Recently recalled Mat Gamel may be option number three, but I wouldn't count on it; the prospect sheen is still very much on the 23 year-old third-sacker.  Gamel suffered through his share of struggles in the second half of last season (likely related to a then undisclosed elbow problem), but overall he still dismantled AA pitching to the tune of .329/.395/.537 (35 2B, 7 3B, 19 HR, 96 RBI).  What's more, he has parlayed that success into a monster 2009 (.336/.428/.647, 8 HR in 119 AB), and with inter-league play on the horizon, the defensive sieve has earned a call-up to serve as the team's DH in American League stadiums.  The bottom line is that Gamel is just too good to give up, especially considering the team traded fellow baby-bopper LaPorta last July, and neither Hardy nor Cameron is an attractive-enough chip to land the Crew the front-line starter they so desperately need.

Assuming J.J. Hardy is firmly entrenched at short, and with Rickie Weeks finally rewarding the organization's patience at second, one would assume that the Brewers would view a young, raw middle-infielder as a tradable commodity.  I've personally been slow to buy into the Alcides Escobar hype machine, although it should be noted that most industry insiders do not seem to echo this irresolution.  Known for his defensive prowess, Escobar put up impressive offensive numbers last year for AA Huntsville, posing a .328/.363/.434 with 179 H (34 XBH) to go with 31 SB (81% success rate).  His breakout did not carry into 2009 spring training, however, as pitchers routinely knocked the bat out of his hands with fastballs on the inner-half.  Escobar is strong  enough, with quick enough wrists, to handle that pitch, but he certainly needs to make some adjustments before he can be deemed big-league ready.  Right now his stride is too long at the plate, causing an unnecessary amount of movement in his hands during his load-phase; all this motion culminates in a slightly long swing, though his violent cuts do showcase tremendous bat speed.  And though he will likely never be a patient hitter, his pitch recognition skills leave much to be desired, as his .308 OBP this season (10 BB in 145 AB) in AAA Nashville will attest.  To Escobar's credit, he does possess one of the strongest infield arms in all of baseball, and is a lanky, soft-handed defensive maestro at the shortstop position.  Once he eliminates the careless errors that characteristically plague young middle infielders (see: Andrus, Elvis), he could take over Troy Tulowitzki's place as doyer of the short circuit.

If the Brewers retain Hardy at short (and with Weeks at second), Escobar could slot in at third next season.  While this is a possibility, it seems more likely they would move Hardy off of short (despite his 36 RAR their last season), or simply let him walk, as Escobar is an absolute wizard at the position.  Hardy could see time at third, also a good situation, which would facilitate Mat Gamel's move off the hot-corner to a corner OF spot (as his natural position of DH does not exist in the N.L.).  In this scenario, Corey Hart would likely take over in CF if he is retained, or Tony Gwynn Jr. if he is not.  Perhaps more logical still would be to move the defensively-challenged Weeks to the outfield.  If the team retains the services of Hart in RF, this would mean moving Weeks to center field; and while he certainly has the athleticism to pull off the switch, I'd be wary putting two converted infielders next to each other in the outfield (the other, of course, being Ryan Braun).  Many would likely jump to compare this harsh move to the Rays' switch of Upton from IF to center several years ago.  A more apt comparison might be the long-rumored, yet never-consummated switch of Ray Durham to CF (though he did trot out to the great green pasture for one inning in 2005).  The stout and muscular Weeks is much more similar to Durham athletically than he is to the lanky, graceful Upton, who frankly was born to play the outfield.  Weeks was not, though despite marked improvements and impressive range, its fairly apparent that he wasn't born to play infield either.  If attempted, this move would require a full offseason and spring training to pull off; nevertheless, a move to CF would free up a middle-infield spot for Escobar, with the defensive butcher that is Mat Gamel likely taking over hot corner responsibilities.

It's quite obvious, from their complete exclusion in the above scenarios, that I don't think highly of the Brewers' third base platoon of Billy Hall and Craig Counsell.  While Hall is hitting a respectable .278 this year, his BABIP is a robust .338; translation, he's a .220 hitter who has been obscenely lucky in the early going, and still his production has been only slightly above average (1.9 WARP3).  The ying to Hall's yang is Craig Counsell, he of World Series fame for both the Marlins ('97) and the Diamondbacks ('01).  Counsell, who looks as if he's toned town his batting stance from his early, opisthotonic days, nevertheless remains a career .246 EqA hitter, 69 runs below average over the course of 4670 PA (through May 16).  His BABIP in '09?  .360!  If these guys' seasons were any more artificial, they had might as well invest in some fake breasts.  Fortunately, Milwaukee has positioned itself to simply replace the Hall/Counsell platoon once the bottom inevitably falls out.  The team can survive half a season with Mat Gamel at third base, if for no other reason that to get his potent bat in the lineup.  It beats the hell out of the alternative.

Assuming history doesn't repeat itself, and the Brewers don't pull off a blockbuster trade of, say, Escobar, Lucroy, Parra, and some A-ballers for Indians reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (he of Brobdingnagian overratedness), one intriguing option still exists: the de facto "retention" of Ben Sheets.

Brewers fans have the right to be skeptical of this move, as Sheets has started 30+ games just once in the past four seasons, however a healthy Sheets is still one of the most dynamic pitching talents in baseball (his ERA+'s+ the past five seasons: 162, 128, 119, 117, 139).  Is a three-four month gamble on Sheets (who did go 13-9, with a 3.09 ERA and 158 K last season to go along with 5 CG) really any more risky than placing your playoff fate in the hands of Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper and Seth McClung?  Obviously, this is purely speculative, and an overwhelming possibility exists that Melvin wants nothing to do with the perpetually-injured Sheets at this point in time.  To complicate matters, rumors of Sheet's impending signing with the Texas Rangers have surfaced; this from the Rangers blog "Right Field Bleachers:"

"As Ben Sheets continues to recover from his most recent surgery that Milwaukee paid for, reports of Sheets sightings around Rangers facilities and rumors of what that might indicate are flowing onto baseball blogs as rapidly as menstrual blood flowed out of Big Ben’s tender and constantly sandy vagina for most of his Brewers tenure."

Manny Parra's last four starts have been pretty good (5.0+ IP, <3 ER); maybe that's the best Milwaukee will be able to do.  Here's to hoping Gallardo's arm--and girly, paper-thin, brittle anterior cruciate ligaments--hold up until October 4th...he shouldn't be needing them much past then anyhow.

An Unbashed to FJM: Part II (Mathematical Anomalies, Irate Rhinoceri and Who Shot Roger?)

Contributor: Wally

Stumbled upon this doosie from the May 14 edition of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, courtesy of Sid Hartman...

“As a group, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have not reached an acceptable standard through this season's first 34 games.  On Wednesday night, Perkins blew leads of 3-0 and 4-2 and left trailing 5-4 in the sixth inning against Detroit.” 

Math was always one of my favorite subjects.  As such, I decided to sit down and do some number crunching in regards to the previous statement.  In the game of baseball, it is impossible to lose leads of 3-0 and 4-2 in the same contest.  Assuming the Twins did not somehow relinquish one of their own runs during the forth or fifth inning, the fact that one team stood at two runs means the Twins must have had four, thus remaining in the lead.  If, instead, he is simply referring to the size of the cushion shrinking from three runs to two, then his argument stands, although it's incredibly stupid...I've noticed that pitchers tend to give up runs at one point or another in most starts.

“The Twins bullpen was inhaling fumes through the final two months of last season.  It received a boost from rookie Jose Mijares in September, but it would be a very naive organization that used a total of 10.1 innings to look at him as a guaranteed problem solver.  Mark the Twins down as very naive.” 

Jose Mijares was unlikely to repeat his 485 ERA+ from 2008; I'm guessing the Twins were aware of this.  That said, Mijares posted a 2.21 ERA in the minors last season (Rookie, Adv-A, AA), slightly up from his 3.31 career mark, which also features sparkling HR and SO (per nine) rates of 1.0 and 10.7, respectively.  Jose, one of the finest lefty specialists in the league, is likely to have a fine 2009.  Certainly nothing we've seen thus far would suggest otherwise, considering he's thrown 37 pitches for the Twins this year and not allowed a run, after pitching 6.1 scoreless for AAA Rochester in April.  Also, to suggest the Twins were pinning all their bullpen hopes on Mijares is incredibly naive.  Nathan, Neshek, Gurreier and possibly even Crain rank ahead of him on the bullpen todom pole.

"On Febuary 9, they signed right-hander Luis Ayala.  He lost a combined 10 games for the Washington Nationals and New York Mets as a reliever.  The last time the Twins had a player lose that many games as a reliever was Ron Davis in 1984."

Ayala was a low-cost flier for Twins management, low risk, potentially high upside.  However there was a reason Ayala was low cost: he was a very bad pitcher last year (ERA+ of 76, 1.454 WHIP, allowed 50% of inherited runners to score w/WSH).  And his struggles have carried over to '09.  But, as Det. Alonzo Harris astutely noted, "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove."  To that end, let me offer up a multiple-choice question: Which of the following statements is/are correct?

(a) Luis Ayala did come at a discount.  (b) Luis Ayala does have a career ERA of 3.54, including a run of 2.92, 2.69, 2.66, 3.19 in the four years leading up to last year.  (c) Luis Ayala lost 12 games in a year when his ERA+ was 168.  (d) Comparing wins and losses is a vacuous way of judging a pitcher's value.  (e) Sid Hartman probably thinks Jamey Wright (8 W) was the second best set-up man in baseball in 2008. (f) All of the above.

If you answered (f), you are most likely correct.  And you can mark Sid Hartman down as very naive.

(*note: The reason I did not pick the winningest relief pitcher for citation in option (e) was that Jose Arredondo lead all relievers in wins last year with 10, and he may well have been the game's best set-up man in '08.  Chalk it up to coincidence (an assertion that works equally well for K-Rod's saves record last year).  Also, Mike Scioscia's choice of Brian Fuentes as his closer, which I'd like to believe was based on the implicit acknowledgement of the arbitrariness of the "closer" role, was more likely a stupid miscalculation/assumption by a hugely overrated manager.  Anyone who would bat Maicer Izturis third (career .375 SLG), while refusing to play Brandon Wood at all (career .901 minor-league OPS, 43 HR in '05), is not fit to manage a major league baseball team, no matter their credentials.  Mike Scioscia is a big, floppy boob.)

“On Wednesday, Ayala arrived after Perkins served up a two-run home run to put the Tigers up 5-4.  Ayala stumbled through the sixth 

Not allowing a run... 

...and the Twins promptly scored three runs to go back ahead 7-5.  Inspired  by the lead, Ayala charged to the mound like an enraged rhino, 

Which, if he had retired the next three batters in order, would have gotten him lauded for his fiery competitiveness (see: Rocker, John, circa '98-'00)... 

...gave up a walk and a double and was replaced by Matt Guerrier.  Guerrier's first pitch was hammered by Miguel Cabrera for a three-run home run.  He received a strike-out when umpire Paul Schreiber called out Maggilo Ordonez on an ankle-high pitch.  Detroit manager Jim Leyland stormed out to tell Schrieber what a lousy job he was doing on balls and strikes...though "lousy" was a kind adjective for Schreiber's work behind the plate.” 

Just as "lousy" is a kind adjective to describe Hartman's recent work behind the keyboard.  I think I'd go with "vapid."