Stumbled upon this doosie from the May 14 edition of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, courtesy of Sid Hartman...
“As a group, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have not reached an acceptable standard through this season's first 34 games. On Wednesday night, Perkins blew leads of 3-0 and 4-2 and left trailing 5-4 in the sixth inning against Detroit.”
Math was always one of my favorite subjects. As such, I decided to sit down and do some number crunching in regards to the previous statement. In the game of baseball, it is impossible to lose leads of 3-0 and 4-2 in the same contest. Assuming the Twins did not somehow relinquish one of their own runs during the forth or fifth inning, the fact that one team stood at two runs means the Twins must have had four, thus remaining in the lead. If, instead, he is simply referring to the size of the cushion shrinking from three runs to two, then his argument stands, although it's incredibly stupid...I've noticed that pitchers tend to give up runs at one point or another in most starts.
Math was always one of my favorite subjects. As such, I decided to sit down and do some number crunching in regards to the previous statement. In the game of baseball, it is impossible to lose leads of 3-0 and 4-2 in the same contest. Assuming the Twins did not somehow relinquish one of their own runs during the forth or fifth inning, the fact that one team stood at two runs means the Twins must have had four, thus remaining in the lead. If, instead, he is simply referring to the size of the cushion shrinking from three runs to two, then his argument stands, although it's incredibly stupid...I've noticed that pitchers tend to give up runs at one point or another in most starts.
“The Twins bullpen was inhaling fumes through the final two months of last season. It received a boost from rookie Jose Mijares in September, but it would be a very naive organization that used a total of 10.1 innings to look at him as a guaranteed problem solver. Mark the Twins down as very naive.”
Jose Mijares was unlikely to repeat his 485 ERA+ from 2008; I'm guessing the Twins were aware of this. That said, Mijares posted a 2.21 ERA in the minors last season (Rookie, Adv-A, AA), slightly up from his 3.31 career mark, which also features sparkling HR and SO (per nine) rates of 1.0 and 10.7, respectively. Jose, one of the finest lefty specialists in the league, is likely to have a fine 2009. Certainly nothing we've seen thus far would suggest otherwise, considering he's thrown 37 pitches for the Twins this year and not allowed a run, after pitching 6.1 scoreless for AAA Rochester in April. Also, to suggest the Twins were pinning all their bullpen hopes on Mijares is incredibly naive. Nathan, Neshek, Gurreier and possibly even Crain rank ahead of him on the bullpen todom pole.
"On Febuary 9, they signed right-hander Luis Ayala. He lost a combined 10 games for the Washington Nationals and New York Mets as a reliever. The last time the Twins had a player lose that many games as a reliever was Ron Davis in 1984."
Ayala was a low-cost flier for Twins management, low risk, potentially high upside. However there was a reason Ayala was low cost: he was a very bad pitcher last year (ERA+ of 76, 1.454 WHIP, allowed 50% of inherited runners to score w/WSH). And his struggles have carried over to '09. But, as Det. Alonzo Harris astutely noted, "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove." To that end, let me offer up a multiple-choice question: Which of the following statements is/are correct?
(a) Luis Ayala did come at a discount. (b) Luis Ayala does have a career ERA of 3.54, including a run of 2.92, 2.69, 2.66, 3.19 in the four years leading up to last year. (c) Luis Ayala lost 12 games in a year when his ERA+ was 168. (d) Comparing wins and losses is a vacuous way of judging a pitcher's value. (e) Sid Hartman probably thinks Jamey Wright (8 W) was the second best set-up man in baseball in 2008. (f) All of the above.
If you answered (f), you are most likely correct. And you can mark Sid Hartman down as very naive.
(*note: The reason I did not pick the winningest relief pitcher for citation in option (e) was that Jose Arredondo lead all relievers in wins last year with 10, and he may well have been the game's best set-up man in '08. Chalk it up to coincidence (an assertion that works equally well for K-Rod's saves record last year). Also, Mike Scioscia's choice of Brian Fuentes as his closer, which I'd like to believe was based on the implicit acknowledgement of the arbitrariness of the "closer" role, was more likely a stupid miscalculation/assumption by a hugely overrated manager. Anyone who would bat Maicer Izturis third (career .375 SLG), while refusing to play Brandon Wood at all (career .901 minor-league OPS, 43 HR in '05), is not fit to manage a major league baseball team, no matter their credentials. Mike Scioscia is a big, floppy boob.)
Jose Mijares was unlikely to repeat his 485 ERA+ from 2008; I'm guessing the Twins were aware of this. That said, Mijares posted a 2.21 ERA in the minors last season (Rookie, Adv-A, AA), slightly up from his 3.31 career mark, which also features sparkling HR and SO (per nine) rates of 1.0 and 10.7, respectively. Jose, one of the finest lefty specialists in the league, is likely to have a fine 2009. Certainly nothing we've seen thus far would suggest otherwise, considering he's thrown 37 pitches for the Twins this year and not allowed a run, after pitching 6.1 scoreless for AAA Rochester in April. Also, to suggest the Twins were pinning all their bullpen hopes on Mijares is incredibly naive. Nathan, Neshek, Gurreier and possibly even Crain rank ahead of him on the bullpen todom pole.
"On Febuary 9, they signed right-hander Luis Ayala. He lost a combined 10 games for the Washington Nationals and New York Mets as a reliever. The last time the Twins had a player lose that many games as a reliever was Ron Davis in 1984."
Ayala was a low-cost flier for Twins management, low risk, potentially high upside. However there was a reason Ayala was low cost: he was a very bad pitcher last year (ERA+ of 76, 1.454 WHIP, allowed 50% of inherited runners to score w/WSH). And his struggles have carried over to '09. But, as Det. Alonzo Harris astutely noted, "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove." To that end, let me offer up a multiple-choice question: Which of the following statements is/are correct?
(a) Luis Ayala did come at a discount. (b) Luis Ayala does have a career ERA of 3.54, including a run of 2.92, 2.69, 2.66, 3.19 in the four years leading up to last year. (c) Luis Ayala lost 12 games in a year when his ERA+ was 168. (d) Comparing wins and losses is a vacuous way of judging a pitcher's value. (e) Sid Hartman probably thinks Jamey Wright (8 W) was the second best set-up man in baseball in 2008. (f) All of the above.
If you answered (f), you are most likely correct. And you can mark Sid Hartman down as very naive.
(*note: The reason I did not pick the winningest relief pitcher for citation in option (e) was that Jose Arredondo lead all relievers in wins last year with 10, and he may well have been the game's best set-up man in '08. Chalk it up to coincidence (an assertion that works equally well for K-Rod's saves record last year). Also, Mike Scioscia's choice of Brian Fuentes as his closer, which I'd like to believe was based on the implicit acknowledgement of the arbitrariness of the "closer" role, was more likely a stupid miscalculation/assumption by a hugely overrated manager. Anyone who would bat Maicer Izturis third (career .375 SLG), while refusing to play Brandon Wood at all (career .901 minor-league OPS, 43 HR in '05), is not fit to manage a major league baseball team, no matter their credentials. Mike Scioscia is a big, floppy boob.)
“On Wednesday, Ayala arrived after Perkins served up a two-run home run to put the Tigers up 5-4. Ayala stumbled through the sixth
Not allowing a run...
...and the Twins promptly scored three runs to go back ahead 7-5. Inspired by the lead, Ayala charged to the mound like an enraged rhino,
Which, if he had retired the next three batters in order, would have gotten him lauded for his fiery competitiveness (see: Rocker, John, circa '98-'00)...
...gave up a walk and a double and was replaced by Matt Guerrier. Guerrier's first pitch was hammered by Miguel Cabrera for a three-run home run. He received a strike-out when umpire Paul Schreiber called out Maggilo Ordonez on an ankle-high pitch. Detroit manager Jim Leyland stormed out to tell Schrieber what a lousy job he was doing on balls and strikes...though "lousy" was a kind adjective for Schreiber's work behind the plate.”
Just as "lousy" is a kind adjective to describe Hartman's recent work behind the keyboard. I think I'd go with "vapid."
