Contributor(s): Seamus, Bombykol, Athos, Migs
(*To be perfectly clear, this year's post-Strasburg draft is a complete crap-shoot, and a completely amaurotic shot in the dark after Ackley (most likely) goes second. What follows represents the way we would pick it, considering only what we consider to be the financial limitations of each team (thus White, Green and Purke slide past several potential [cash-strapped] suitors and out of the top ten). Also, recent reports have Gibson and Scheppers falling, perhaps even out of the first round (as well as Crow, though much less so); this probably should have prompted a re-ordering of our top-10, but as the draft starts in a couple of hours, it's hard to see the point. Plus, if Gibson and/or Schepps pan out the way we anticipate they will, this should only strengthen our 'told ya so' credentials. Oh well.)
(*To be perfectly clear, this year's post-Strasburg draft is a complete crap-shoot, and a completely amaurotic shot in the dark after Ackley (most likely) goes second. What follows represents the way we would pick it, considering only what we consider to be the financial limitations of each team (thus White, Green and Purke slide past several potential [cash-strapped] suitors and out of the top ten). Also, recent reports have Gibson and Scheppers falling, perhaps even out of the first round (as well as Crow, though much less so); this probably should have prompted a re-ordering of our top-10, but as the draft starts in a couple of hours, it's hard to see the point. Plus, if Gibson and/or Schepps pan out the way we anticipate they will, this should only strengthen our 'told ya so' credentials. Oh well.)
1. Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (RHP)
Reports of Stras throwing 103 mph are both apocryphal and ridiculous. 98-100 mph, however, is both likely and downright scary, as Strasburg's fastball displays unprecedented movement for a pitch of this speed (running hard away from right handers). Add this to a filthy slider sitting in the 90 mph range, and you have a pitcher that I expect to see in the major leagues before season's end, assuming a contract can be reached in a relatively timely manner. Just don't rush him--there is absolutely no reason to overly tax his invaluable arm, especially considering how many innings the youngster has already logged for SDSU.
(I'm very much looking forward to Strasburg's first start on FOX, in which the radar gun will probably read in the neighborhood of 108 mph...to which Joe Buck will reply, "Wow, 108! That's impressive stuff from the young man," and Tim McCarver will answer, "You said it, and I think that was his slider!")
2. Mariners: Aaron Crow (RHP)
The most commonly thrown-around comp for presumed #2 overall pick Dustin Ackley: Darin Erstad. Holy Jesus Christ monkeyballs, I hope they're referring to year 2000 Erstad, who was a veritable stud, not every other year Erstad, who was a big, floppy Ponginae scrotum, more reminiscent of Al Cowens than Todd Helton. Ackley has a beautifully compact swing, is short to the ball and displays ample enough bat speed to confidently predict power increases down the road. Still, despite plus foot-speed, I'm not sure I am completely sold on Ackley as a center fielder. At least not for the entirety of his twenties. This may be where the Erstad comp is most pertinent; likely a better first baseman than an outfielder, Darin remained capable of playing center late into his career, though he often proved to be more flashy than sterling. Quite simply, the range of either of these gentlemen is not overly impressive, nor is the arm strength (though it should be noted that Ackley underwent Tommy John surgery last season; how he recovers is anyone's guess). Bottom line: despite a pathetic offense, the Mariners recognize that the 2009 draft is all about pitching; of particular pertinence, the top of this year's class contains a plethora of young power arms that can help big league clubs real soon (though, as always, this is contingent on signability considerations).
3. Padres: Dustin Ackley (CF/1B)
Since I took up Crow's space talking about Ackley, I should mention a few things about Crow. A three pitch guy, Aaron sits in the low-to-mid 90's with the heater, which he complements with a sharp slider (low-80's, excellent tilt) and an infrequently utilized, slow-to-develop change. Drafted #9 overall in 2008 out of Mizzou, Crow is good enough to make the Nationals lament the day they failed to sign him. To put matters in perspective, then-GM Jim Bowden and Co. essentially passed on a Stras-Crow-Zimmerman 1-2-3 in 2010--not a bad set of building blocks for a young team moving forward. Pity, for despite Crow's awkward delivery (in which he violently hooks the elbow of his throwing arm), he could break into the majors as soon as this season. As for the Padres, Ackley is certainly capable of helping their anemic offense (ETA 2010), especially with the corpse of Brian Giles set to be jettisoned, Scott Hairston more suited for corner outfield duty, and Gwynn Jr. likely not talented enough to sustain success in the majors.
4. Pirates: Donavan Tate (OF)
Easily the best of a weak crop of HS position players, I'm guessing Pittsburgh rolls the dice here on the youngster as opposed to breaking bank for a second year in a row. Last year's negotiations with Scott Boras (Pedro Alvarez) had to have left a sour taste in the mouths of perpetually-penny-pinching Pirates mgmt; this kind of an amaurotic dice roll should put them right back in their comfort zone (ESPN's Keith Law has Tate outside the top 32!). HS arms Kyle Gibson and Zach Wheeler are also possibilities in this slot, but given Pittsburgh's disastrous record of drafting first round pitchers, the uber-athletic outfielder is the safer, and likely more intelligent pick at No. 4.
5. Baltimore Orioles: Jacob Turner (RHP)
Predicting Turner to go before Matzek, Wheeler and Gibson based on talent is debatable, but far-from absurd. If one bases this one signability, however, it could easily come to pass that Turner becomes the forth prep pitcher selected, perhaps even by a team outside of the top-ten. Nevertheless, after selecting Wieters and Matusz the past two seasons, Baltimore appears willing to spend above slot for quality youngsters, and they should have the money to throw at Turner, courtesy of their offseason Mark Teixeria bid settling facedown in the inner-harbor sediment. Turner would be a nice addition to the formidable stable of pitching talent in Baltimore's pipeline, which already features Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe.
6. San Fransisco: Tyler Matzek (LHP)
An industry consensus seems to be arising that S.F. will stay in state to select polished high school hurler Matzek, a well-built, four-pitch southpaw who sits in the low-90's with his fastball and the mid-80's with his plus slider. A big kid, Matzek throws with an excellent downhill plane, although his slow, loopy overhand curve may need to be tightened or ditched as he moves up the minor league ladder. A drop-and-drive guy, Matzek's mechanics look extremely advanced for his age, as does his frame, which is both broad and solid, especially in the lower body. As Bill James astutely notes, picking HS pitching prospects is not a science, rather a sloppy, blinded crapshoot; still, one has to like what Matzek has to offer, and I don't expect him to fall past S.F. at six.
7. Braves: Zach Wheeler (RHP)
Staying with the theme of selecting home-state HS pitchers, the Braves will be hard-pressed to pass up on Zach Wheeler, granted he is still on the board. I don't have Wheeler ranked higher than any of the projected 1-6 picks with the exception of Turner (though he profiles more similarly to a right-handed Matzek, albiet with a lower arm-slot); he is, however, substantially more signable. This makes him an option for any team picking in front of the Braves, should they get uncomfortable with a given player's price tag. A tall righty who generates easy velocity on his mid-90's heater with a long stride and a powerful drive off the rubber, Wheeler also features a slurve secondary pitch (in need of refinement) and a below-average changeup. As with all prep players, his time in the system will be longer than one would expect with a college arm, but with the college RHP pool so extremely shallow in '09, now is the time to gamble on a talented HS pitcher, especially given Atlanta's surplus of starting pitchers and Wheeler's advanced feel for his fastball.
8. Reds: Kyle Gibson (RHP)
Another small-market NL Central team who sprung for a high-profile collegiate slugger in '08 (Miami's Yonder Alonso), Cincinnati is expected to stick to slot this year, which most likely means picking from a relatively deep crop of arms. As I've already removed Turner, Matzek and Wheeler from the board, as well as outfielder Tate, Gibson is the next highest-ranked prep hurler on the list, and may well be Jocketty's choice. A polished righty who commands all three of his pitches (a plus fastball, a tight, late-breaking plus slider and a change), the biggest concerns with Gibson are medical, as he was recently found to have a stress fracture in his right forearm, though he should be fine and dandy after the allotted six week recovery time.
9. Tigers: Tanner Scheppers (RHP)
Detroit has never been afraid to spend on the draft, and this has paid off handsomely for them in recent years (see: Verlander, Justin; Porcello, Rick). Today's main feature: Tanner Scheppers, now featuring a clean bill of health courtesy of Dr. Thomas Yocum! After suffering a slight shoulder impingement last year, which knocked the presumed top-10 pick to the second round (PIT), Scheppers spent early 2009 with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League. I recently had the opportunity to see him throw, and bring it he did, sitting in the mid-90's with his fastball (topping out at 97 mph), while also featuring a two-plane curve (that he showed startlingly little command of) and a changeup, which was much better than advertised (as he threw it with good arm speed and located it on both sides of the plate). Some industry types have Scheppers' stock free-falling; I don't see it. Not much has changed in the past month for Tanner; being as talent evaluators likely are not basing their assessment on results in the Northern League, this finally-healthy prospective top-10 pick last season should make good on that promise this year.
10. Nationals: Bobby Borchering (3B/1B)
The second half of Washington's first round double-dip will be 100% about signability, as estimates put the bonus figures in the $20-50 million range for Mr. Strasburg. The talent pick here may be UNC righty Alex White (now with split-finger!). The actual pick will be a lesser-known prep player; perhaps a Wheeler type, if he were to fall, but more likely Everett Williams (of), Mike Givens (ss/rhp), Bobby Borchering (3b/1b) or the substantially-spendier Matt Purke (lhp), though they will not receive another compensatory pick if they fail to sign their No. 10 overall selection. If the collegiate ranks are the direction they wish to go, Kennesaw State's Chad Jennings (rhp) and Baylor reliever Kendal Volz (rhp) could be in play, with Jennings representing the significantly cheaper option, even as a SP.
