Contributor: Bombykol, Wally
In their latest installment, the Sporting News put together a list of the top 50 players in baseball, as voted on by a panel of enlightened individuals. What resulted was a gigantic bacchanal of fallacy, fatuousness and fraudulence, the largest scam perpetuated on the American public since oral vitamin supplements. Needless to say, said list is achin' for evisceration. This critique utilizes only a few relatively basic statistics, most notably EqA, ISO, UZR, and B.P.'s BRAR and FRAR, thereby avoiding the ranking of players based solely on WORP's, VORP's and/or Win-Shares (each of which kicks ass, but can be looked up relatively easily by interested parties; also interesting, Mr. Bill James constituted exactly 1/100th of the panel). And it was undertaken to demonstrate one simple truth. One can easily dispatch of a panel of pundits (often former players and managers, "group-think[ers]" that reach their conclusions by means extraneous to the realm of logic), using nothing more than rationality. Critical thought is obviously of the utmost importance in analysis, a truth that should be completely intuitive, yet is all-to-often brushed aside in favor of gastrointestinal premonitions.
A wise man once was said, "your eyes can deceive you...don't trust them." It will now be demonstrated that the ability to hit a 95 mph fastball has dick to do with the analysis of a dynamic entity as beautifully intricate and complex as the game of baseball. (The run-down follows the S.N.'s list, though rankings from Minnfarction's "Top 50" list (which can be found, in its entirety at the bottom of the post), are contained within the parentheses following each player's name...)
In their latest installment, the Sporting News put together a list of the top 50 players in baseball, as voted on by a panel of enlightened individuals. What resulted was a gigantic bacchanal of fallacy, fatuousness and fraudulence, the largest scam perpetuated on the American public since oral vitamin supplements. Needless to say, said list is achin' for evisceration. This critique utilizes only a few relatively basic statistics, most notably EqA, ISO, UZR, and B.P.'s BRAR and FRAR, thereby avoiding the ranking of players based solely on WORP's, VORP's and/or Win-Shares (each of which kicks ass, but can be looked up relatively easily by interested parties; also interesting, Mr. Bill James constituted exactly 1/100th of the panel). And it was undertaken to demonstrate one simple truth. One can easily dispatch of a panel of pundits (often former players and managers, "group-think[ers]" that reach their conclusions by means extraneous to the realm of logic), using nothing more than rationality. Critical thought is obviously of the utmost importance in analysis, a truth that should be completely intuitive, yet is all-to-often brushed aside in favor of gastrointestinal premonitions.
A wise man once was said, "your eyes can deceive you...don't trust them." It will now be demonstrated that the ability to hit a 95 mph fastball has dick to do with the analysis of a dynamic entity as beautifully intricate and complex as the game of baseball. (The run-down follows the S.N.'s list, though rankings from Minnfarction's "Top 50" list (which can be found, in its entirety at the bottom of the post), are contained within the parentheses following each player's name...)
1. Albert Pujols (1)
Absolutely spot-on. Big Al has a career EqA of .344, posting a .367 clip in 2008 (a year in which he was 97 BRAR) and following it up with a .358 thus far in '09 (already 26 BRAR). Pujols shows tremendous plate discipline, routinely taking around 100 walks per year with O-Swing% (percentage of swings at pitches outside of the strike-zone) south of 20%; also, he rarely strikes out (a paltry 12 K thus far in '09, career K% of ~10%), made more impressive by his rarely putting the ball in play without authority. The consummate "pure" hitter, Pujols' tremendous power often goes overlooked and under-appreciated: in 2008, Al posted a .342 ISO (isolated power: SLG-BA), along with a LD% of 22.4% (a high number, contributing to what should be considered a slightly aberrational .346 BABIP, though his career mark sits at a sparkling .322). Additionally, Pujols posted a phenomenal 18.8 UZR in 2008, and ranks third amongst 1B with an 8.5 UZR/150 in '09 (trailing only Mark Teixeria and Joey Votto); 'Prince Albert' hasn't made more than eight errors in a season since 2005. As if that were not enough, scouts laud his baserunning ability
2. Alex Rodriguez (9)
Uh, no. A-Rod is a obviously a great hitter, although not without flaws (for example, a career BB% of 11%, and a Contact% (75.8% in '08) more reminiscent of Mark Reynolds than Joe Mauer); obviously, this is nit-picking for a player with a career EqA of .320, but when ranking the top 5-10 players in the game, differences tend to lie in relatively minor details. Here's a major detail, however: Rodriguez's UZR at 3B is routinely between +2.0 and -2.0, which is excluding the significant outlier of 2006, where he posted a terrible -11.8. Last season, A-Rod was a disappointing four runs below replacement at 3B, a far cry from the 35-44 FRAR seasons a significantly slimmer Rodriguez produced as a SS for Seattle. Being as A-Rod is no longer the superlative offensive force he once was, especially with lingering questions about his hip labrum, his complete package of offensive and defensive production does not merit top-five player status in 2009.
Ironically, another third baseman fits the top-5 player(s) in baseball bill much better than does A-Rod: Evan Longoria. Where does Longoria rank on Sporting News' list? Twentieth! That is pure ridiculousness, especially considering that is putting him behind the likes of Derek Jeter, Mo Rivera, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. He's currently cooking up a .339 EqA in 2009 (after posting a .301 as a rookie) with an ISO of .311, as well as sitting 23 BRAR and 13 FRAR (5.6 UZR '09, 14.9 in '08) for the young season. And he's driven in a ML-best 47 runs while lead-off man B.J. Upton flounders below the Mendoza-line.
3. Johan Santana (6)
This is not the proper forum to debate the relative value of position players versus pitchers; It's suffice to say that I have no problem with Santana's positioning on the list. I personally would have ranked him 2-3 spots lower, but the Mets ace has unequivocally established himself as the premier starter in today's game--this is merely an acknowledgment of that fact. What I do have a problem with, however, is the absence of a pair of Johan's teammates in the top ten: Carlos Beltran and David Wright. Wright is a lot like Longoria offensively, sans the stellar ISO (.221 career for Wright, including .232 in '08 and .178 in '09). Still, ISO is a statistic measuring the disparity between SLG and AVG, and Wright should continue to hit for a better AVG than Longoria. Wright's career average is .312 over 5+ seasons, and though his career slugging remains a rung or two below spectacular (.533), consecutive 90+ walk seasons have his career OPS sitting at a virile .926. The Mets' third sacker is also more accomplished on the basepaths than Longoria, although any athletic advantage this might suggest in and of itself does not necessarily carry over to the field (-4.3 career UZR, despite the lengthy highlight reel). (note: B.P. has Wright at 21 and 22 FRAR the last two full seasons, respectively, which is comparable to Longoria's 24 FRAR in his only full season.) At this point, Wright looks to have hit his ceiling; although he has plateaued at a very impressive level of production, the sky remains the limit for the younger Longoria, and he should get the nod as the superior player going forward.
Wright is very good, but not a top-five player in the league. Beltran, however, has been nothing less than that in 2009. This, along with his impressive all-around resume (over 10+ years of service time), places him firmly in the discussion of the most underrated great players of the past two decades. Various publications have graded Beltran as the best defensive CF in baseball over the past three seasons, a time period in which his UZR's have actually sunk below his career average (which, oddly enough, are not terribly special in and of themselves (8.8 in '08, Andruw Jones, by comparison, registered a 30.0 in '05)). Nevertheless, B.P.'s FRAR statistic has Beltran posting the stellar full season totals of 28, 35, 24 and 37 since signing on with the Mets, an average of 31 runs saved over a replacement-level player during the four-year window encompassing Beltran's age 28-31 seasons. During this time, Beltran has stolen 83 bases at an 85.6 % success rate, and seven of eight already in 2009. Remarkably, this is below his career stolen base rate of 88.1% (he has netted 282 SB through May 20, 2009)! All this from a switch-hitter who has scored 1,064 runs in 1,522 games while posting a career .293 EqA, including three consecutive seasons of .300+, and a .dazzling 370 clip thus far in '09. Like Wright, neither Beltran's career ISO (.211) nor his SLG (.499, though with three seasons near or above .550) jump out at you; no matter. Beltran is one of the game's most complete players, one whose success is not entirely contingent on a monstrous offensive output. The commonly misused five-tool distinction was invented for Beltran; a truly spectacular player.
4. Manny Ramirez (19)
I'll admit that I didn't see Ramirez as a P.E.D. guy. And perhaps he wasn't in his early days, possibly not even until his precipitous decline began in late-2006, a time in which the .275-.300+ ISO that had become his staple gave way to a .197 mark in 2007. All of this has been speculated about to an insane degree, so I won't convolute my forthcoming argument by offering up some hastily researched conspiracy theory rehash. What I will say, however, is that assuming that Ramirez's "Big Hurt Baseball"-esque production in Dodger blue was chemically-enhanced to some degree, the soon-to-be 37 year-old defensive black-hole (-15.3 UZR/150 in '09) is clearly not the fourth-best player in baseball. Nor does he deserve to be ranked twenty-four spots ahead of Miguel Cabrera (who has averaged 63.8 BRAR the past five years, and 11.2 FRAR), a player that profiles very similarly, and has garnered many a 'comp,' to Manny Ramirez (who has averaged 50.8 BRAR over the same span, including his LAD stats, & -2.8 FRAR). Do a little arithmetic, and the "Net"-RAR (BRAR + FRAR) for Cabrera is +75.0, substantially greater than Ramirez's +48.0; additionally, Cabrera is eleven years younger.
5. Hanley Ramirez (3)
Getting warmer, pollsters. This is about where HanRam belongs, though you're still relatively underrating him by placing him below the likes of A-Rod and Manny. In fact Ramirez, an elite offensive force each of his three full seasons in the league, is a top-3 player when he's playing defense. This year, Ramirez is posting an impressive 18.6 UZR/150, tops in the league at the SS position (and the first positive ErrR (error runs above average) of his career). That number may not jive with the ol' eye test, but it nonetheless qualifies as "plus" defense, even in light of the small sample size encompassed. And considering Hanley's UZR's (and RngR's, range runs above average) since breaking into the league have read -6.0 (-1.0), -19.2 (-13.1), -0.7 (2.4), it also constitutes major improvement (remember that, when factoring in positional difficulty, a SS UZR in the 0 to -5 range is still quite 'valuable' (and roughly equivalent to a +10.0 UZR recorded at 1B)). Perhaps Ramirez will stick at the position longer than expected; if so, consider his place in the top five cemented.
Yet whether he sticks at short or not, Hanley remains an offensive monster, having posted 45, 71 and 70 BRAR's over the course of his career. These numbers are impressive for anyone, but staggering for a middle-infielder. Coming off the first .400+ OBP season of his career (featuring a career-high 92 BB), Ramirez appears to be continuing his improvement at the plate, although his overall offensive value has taken a slight hit by declining SB numbers both in terms of number of steals (51, 51, 35) and success rate. While this is what one expects from a burgeoning power hitter (Alex Rodriguez (1998): 46 SB), taken together, HanRam's "shortcomings" still place him behind...
6. Chase Utley (2)
A better hitter than his career .298/.378/.529 line would indicate, the last complete season in which Utley was fully healthy (2007) read .332/.410/.566. Some will remember that during the first half of last season, before suffering a then-undisclosed hip labral injury (which was operated on following the World Series), Utley was actually exceeding these lofty standards, finishing April with a .352/.427/.741 with 10 HR. By June second, those numbers read .320/.403/.680 with 20 HR and 50 RBI. Boasting perhaps the game's quickest wrists (and undoubtedly its most compact swing), Utley is an extra-base machine at a premium defensive position. A position he plays stupendously well, to the tune of a four-year FRAR-run of 45, 37, 34 and 37 going into 2009 (just for fun, his BRAR's over the same period read 52, 55, 62, 59, for "net" RAR's [BRAR + FRAR] of 97, 92, 96, 96). Over the same period, Utley has averaged a UZR of 15.75, pretty damn impressive for a second baseman. And Chase is a very effective base-stealer when electing to delve into thievery, having swiped 23 bases in 25 attempts the past two seasons. In lists such as these, the difference between 6 and 8 is generally assumed to be negligible; to this point, the fact that Utley is located merely two spots above Derek Jeter is a truly offensive display of ignorance...more on this later.
A better hitter than his career .298/.378/.529 line would indicate, the last complete season in which Utley was fully healthy (2007) read .332/.410/.566. Some will remember that during the first half of last season, before suffering a then-undisclosed hip labral injury (which was operated on following the World Series), Utley was actually exceeding these lofty standards, finishing April with a .352/.427/.741 with 10 HR. By June second, those numbers read .320/.403/.680 with 20 HR and 50 RBI. Boasting perhaps the game's quickest wrists (and undoubtedly its most compact swing), Utley is an extra-base machine at a premium defensive position. A position he plays stupendously well, to the tune of a four-year FRAR-run of 45, 37, 34 and 37 going into 2009 (just for fun, his BRAR's over the same period read 52, 55, 62, 59, for "net" RAR's [BRAR + FRAR] of 97, 92, 96, 96). Over the same period, Utley has averaged a UZR of 15.75, pretty damn impressive for a second baseman. And Chase is a very effective base-stealer when electing to delve into thievery, having swiped 23 bases in 25 attempts the past two seasons. In lists such as these, the difference between 6 and 8 is generally assumed to be negligible; to this point, the fact that Utley is located merely two spots above Derek Jeter is a truly offensive display of ignorance...more on this later.
7. Roy Halladay (12)
I'm a little surprised voters gave Roy this much sugar; then again, when one watches only Boston and New York, one ends up seeing Toronto quite a bit. Halladay's average season (per 162 games, and including his relatively non-descript age 22-24 seasons, split between the rotation and the bullpen) is staggering: 230.0 IP (5 CG), 17-8, 3.48 ERA (including ERA+'s of 158, 145, 184, 143, 120 and 154 his past six full seasons, plus a 179 thus far in '09), 165 K, 52 BB and a 1.200 WHIP. Props to the panel for choosing "ol' reliable" over flavor-of-the-month studs Tim Lincecum (who doesn't possess a large enough sample size) and C.C. Sabathia (who has been completely exonerated from his lousy first-half performance in 2008 (1-5, 7.51 ERA going into his May 9 start v. TOR), which effectively killed Cleveland's playoff hopes).
8. Derek Jeter (51-60)
No no no no no. Seriously, this is asinine, boarder-line psychotic ludicrousness. Jeter does have a 14.3 VORP this year (promise it's the only time I'll use it), good for fifth-best amongst all shortstops. It also places S.N.'s eighth-best major leaguer in the middle of a Marco Scutaro (4) / Cristian Guzman (6) sandwich. Tarnishes the luster quite a bit, doesn't it? Either Sporting News stumbled upon some sort of quantum time vortex, which subsequently transported them back to the year 2004, or none of them have seen a Yankees game for the past two or three years. And to trump it all, Sporting News turned to Todd Jones for analysis and justification:
"When I look at Derek Jeter, I see a champion. A captain. A guy with the "it" factor. A guy who handles whatever comes his way with so much savvy and cool we just shake our heads."
Ironically, this topic was recently addressed in the 'Nutrition and Biochemistry' section of "The Journal for Sports Science and Medicine." Using a modified polygraph (in which electrodes were attached to the subject's forearm and axillary regions), researchers were finally able to quantify Jeter's glandular secretions of "It-factor-3." After isolation and examination, you know how many games this lipopolysaccharidic residue has won the Yankees since 1996? Zero. It has, however, proven to be a powerful pheromone for sports writers in heat.
"Jeter always seems to be in the middle of big moments because he is involved in every play."
You know who else has been involved in a majority of his team's plays this season? Padre's catcher Nick Hundley. (In fact, by Jones' logic, every starting catcher should immediately garner accolades for their degree of play-to-play involvement, which, by the way, is exemplary.) Since this makes no sense, he must be referring to the mental aspect of the game. I've watched Derek Jeter, and he does appear to be glancing in towards home during each and every delivery, as opposed to sitting cross-legged, picking at the outfield grass like Carlos Lee and Grady Sizemore have been known to do.
You know who else has been involved in a majority of his team's plays this season? Padre's catcher Nick Hundley. (In fact, by Jones' logic, every starting catcher should immediately garner accolades for their degree of play-to-play involvement, which, by the way, is exemplary.) Since this makes no sense, he must be referring to the mental aspect of the game. I've watched Derek Jeter, and he does appear to be glancing in towards home during each and every delivery, as opposed to sitting cross-legged, picking at the outfield grass like Carlos Lee and Grady Sizemore have been known to do.
"He always is directing, teaching, focusing and grinding."
He is, for lack of a better analogy, the Dalai Lama of professional baseball...twelfth son of the llama...gunga galunga.
Plus, who else foresaw the word "grinder" popping up at one point or another in this "argument?" More appropriate question, did anyone fail to?
For critique of the word, "grinder," I defer to the great Ken Tremendous, who defined it as "a nebulous buzzword; a synonym for a submarine sandwich." My Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series playing something their general manager would later describe as "grinderball." Sorry, try again. Or just admit you made that word up to convolute what really happened. You got lucky: be happy that your top five starting pitchers had simultaneous career-seasons to bail out a mediocre offense and slightly above-average defense. The word "grinderball" is absolute nonsense. You might as well have dubbed it "hystricine-ball," or "sarabande-ball," it would have just as much meaning. If there is such thing as a grinder (there isn't), Jeter certainly is not one. A grinder has to be lucky, and his success has to be transient, otherwise it would be attributable to skill. Bad players do not (in fact, cannot) grind their way to prolonged success. The best they can do is to trick gullible managers into continually writing their names onto lineup cards (see: Eckstein, David (career .259 EqA); Counsell, Craig (.248); and Punto, Nick (.239)). Derek Jeter (career .297 EqA) has not "ground" his way to anything, he is supremely talented, athletic and hard-working. Darin Erstad had a .313 EqA in 2000...did he scrupulously hone and utilize his skill-set for that year alone, only to forget how to play baseball the next? No; he was merely lucky (.378 BABIP). But that year earned him six additional years to grind away at the offensive output of the Angels lineup. In the next six seasons, Erstad's EqA exceeded .255 exactly once, ironically, the same number of times his FRAR exceeded 21. Still, Erstad busted his ass on groundouts, threw his body towards balls (at multiple defensive positions) and returned to the bench dirty so many times Mike Scioscia could not stomach the prospect of dropping such a player from his lineup. Mike Scioscia is a moron.
Returning briefly to a point I glossed over, what exactly constitutes "luck"? Luck is that fickle, inexplicable entity that drives sabermatricians up the wall when uninitiated people fail to recognize the importance of adequate sample size in statistical analysis. Juan Pierre has a .992 OPS in 2009. ARGHHHH...403 BABIP...MGRMPHHH...!!!
"He isn't a guy who puts on his game face only when the red light comes on."
"He isn't a guy who puts on his game face only when the red light comes on."
I assume he means the red indicator light on the camera, and that this is not simply a misunderstanding of the customary red-yellow-green traffic light system. Not that one makes a whole lot more sense than the other: Jones is basically implying that some players only play hard when the camera is on them, which, since the advent of local sports networks, encompasses every single game. Now this could mean that Jeter is the rare player who works as hard on the Spring Training B-fields as he does in the sixth game of the ALCS in Yankee Stadium, however Jones reveals in his next statement that some guys aren't playing as hard in May as they will be in October, thus implying that even the proverbial "red light" is not enough to motivate the average ML ballplayer. I beg to differ on the grounds that Todd Jones is a big blubbering vagina-head who has never been right about anything. And that most big leaguers care about their performances, and that of their teams.
"Because he plays the same way in May as he does in October, he is prepared for big moments because he is playing the game at the same speed he always does."
Quick writing tip: don't qualify a statement beginning with the indefinite article "because" by employing a statement that is also dependent on the word "because;" it's just tacky. Also, to your point, baseball is a game that requires an absolutely minimal amount of physical exertion. It's truly pathetic when stacked up against other team sports such as basketball, football, soccer, lacrosse, etc., games that require their athletes to be superbly conditioned (or at least to display some degree of cardiovascular fitness, unlike, say, Todd Jones). The point is, plenty of major league players (in fact, I'd venture to say the majority of them) play the game the same way in May as they do come playoff time, simply because its not a strenuous preposition in the least. This is not to say Derek Jeter isn't a fiery competitor, but just because Justin Morneau elects against pumping his fist in response to difficult putouts does not mean Jeter's competitive streak somehow exceeds that of Morneau. The real argument, hinted at in the second "because" statement, is that Jeter does not let the adrenaline-soaked atmosphere of playoff baseball speed-up the game unnecessarily, promoting ill-advised swings and reckless errors. Again, Derek Jeter is not alone in displaying this virtue; he is, however, the most extolled upon big-leaguer of our era, with many a Bob Costas-narrated, acoustic-guitar accompanied paean to his name. Thus Jeter's ranking would be understandable if this list had been made by the American Film Institute; we as statisticians, on the other hand, strive not to allow our opinions of objective entities be influenced by the presence or absence of slomo jump throws set to an orchestral soundtrack. Derek Jeter circa 2009: H.O.F.'er, .275 EqA'er, negative FRAA'er, 1.0-3.0 WARP'er...no longer one of the 50 best players in professional baseball. Just because.
9. Marinano Rivera (51-60)
Is Mariano Rivera a transcendent talent? Yes. Is he the best relief pitcher of my generation, despite some epic collapses in high-leverage situations? Most likely, yes. Is he still one of the top 5 relievers in baseball? In 2009, Rivera's WXRL (Expected Wins Added for Relief Pitchers) is a mere 1.561, just above that of Fernando Rodney (1.513) and below that of twelve other pitchers (including studs Bell, Papelbon, K-Rod, Broxton and Hoffman, and journeyman-types David Aardsma (2.693, tops in the league), Frank Fransisco, Scott Downs and Ramon's Troncoso and Ramirez). This proves essentially nothing, as Rivera was worth 6.172 additional wins in 2008, second in the league (to Brad Lidge), and 3.696 in 2007, good for seventeenth in the league. What it does prove, is that one can find relief pitchers anywhere; most team's do not find someone of Rivera's quality, even for a single year, let alone for a career, but it would take a really special three-year performance for any RP to break the top 50; Rivera simply has not provided that, despite his H.O.F. credentials. Closers pitch 50-60 times per year, for little more than an inning per appearance, generally with a lead of one to three runs. A league-average major league pitcher gives up a run every other inning; thus, if all saves were of the one-run variety, a league average pitcher would have a save-% of 50%. Many saves are not of the one-run variety, however, pushing the save-% of a league average pitcher towards the 75-80% range. Rivera's career save-% is 89%. Phenomenal for what it is, tremendous success in a relatively specialized 'niche' position, "the closer," created almost exclusively to register the relatively arbitrary, meaningless stat of "the save." Considering Rivera has been used for no more than a single inning (the ninth) for most of his career (see: Torre, Joe, managerial credo), his value is severely diminished by the nature of his trade.
10. Chipper Jones (24)
Another fabulous player; a H.O.F. switch hitter, MVP and batting champion with plus power to all fields and the track record to back it up. On the other hand, Larry is a defensive butcher (-21.1 UZR/150 in '09) at this advance stage of his career, and cannot seem to stay on the field for more than 137 games per year (note: he hasn't done so since 2003, a period in which he has only one 30 HR and one 100 RBI season). And you're telling me that this brittle, statue of a third sacker is better than Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Youklis, Zach Grienke, etc...at the ripe old age of 37? He ain't.
11-20. Ryan Howard (47), Grady Sizemore (14), David Wright (11), Justin Morneau (21), Jimmy Rollins (N-R), Josh Beckett (61-80), Mark Teixeria (22), Dustin Pedroia (51-60), Tim Lincecum (17), Evan Longoria (5)
What is Ryan Howard doing at eleven? Maybe in 2006 (or 2007 against right-handed pitching), but since then, Howard has been an all-or-nothing benefactor of a stellar lineup and a bandbox stadium, a very good player in his own right, but not a 140 RBI man in, say, the Diamondbacks lineup. And the strikeouts are troubling, even though no solid statistical evidence has been presented to suggest a strikeout is more detrimental than [insert favorite alternative out-making modality]. (Why is this the case? Generally, one who strikes out more hits into less double plays. Also, take for instance, a hitter who may 'choke-up' on the bat in order to slap a grounder to the right side, thus advancing a runner from second to third; over a great-enough sample size, a "swing from the heels" approach with two strikes generally results in substantial enough power 'gains' (relative to the conservative approach) that the injurious effects incurred by increased SO-rates are negated.) But Howard is striking out at a prolific, nay, historic rate, unseen outside of Phoenix, AZ; 579 K in three years! A ML clean-up hitter cannot fan in one-third of his official AB's (for a Contact% of merely 66.4% career) without it negatively impacting his team. Case-in-point, R-Ho's WPA (Win Probability Added) has dropped from 8.40 in his banner '06 campaign to 2.39 in '08, a time period that has also seen his Contact% and Z-Contact% (pitches in the zone) drop nearly four percentage points. That, plus his complete lack of contribution with the glove (0.7, 0.2, 2.8 UZR the past three seasons) knocks him out of the top fifteen...way out.
As for Beckett and J-Roll... Beckett was 12-10 last year with a 4.03 ERA, veiling good peripherals (8.88 K/9, 5.06 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP); still, the sixteenth-best player in the league? I'm gonna have to call East Coast media bias on this one, likely compounded by wet dream recollections of the 2007 World Series and vague, nostalgic flashbacks to his dominance in the 2004 postseason. Still, Beckett's stuff looked to be in decline last year, and his numbers this season back that up: 5.01 ERA, 3.88 BB/9 and a 1.53 WHIP (although on a flukishly high .346 BABIP). Holding Beckett out of both the Minnfarction top-50 and the 'first ten out' may have been more prognostication than evidence, but my desire to cancel out the Boston sports-media monopoly knows no bounds (see: Pedroia, 51-60; although, to be fair, Dustin has been at best the third-best, and most likely the forth-best (Cano), second baseman in the AL East this season).
Still, if Beckett looks shitty, then Jimmy Rollins looks like Papi droppings. J-Roll currently stands with a .216 EqA, a .109 ISO mark (after throwing up a .160 spot in '08), and 4 CS in 10 attempts (he was caught only 3 times out of 50 attempts last season), all while posting a pedestrian 1.7 UZR (3 FRAR) with the leather (although he has been a defensive stalwart most years). A career-high UZR of 12.6 last season masked a return to career-average production following the spectacular aberration that was his '07 MVP campaign; this year, aging legs and an undeterred offensive free-fall have booted him not only from the top fifty, but the top eighty.
21-30. Lance Berkman (16), Jose Reyes (30), Caros Beltran (8), Ian Kinsler (18), Zack Greinke (7), Josh Hamilton (13), Alfonso Soriano (N-R), Miguel Cabrera (15), C.C. Sabathia (23), Ichiro Suzuki (40)
Lance Berkman has a career EqA of .319 (.300/.412/.557); additionally, his BRAR's from the past eight seasons read 75, 67, 55, 76, 53, 73, 51 and 74. That's much better than most national media members give him credit for, especially in light of the fact that Berkman, finally entrenched at 1B for a full 150+, improved his FRAR by 37 runs from '07-'08, registering a respectable 22 mark last season. That places him on an extremely even playing field with Manny during six of the past eight seasons, with Berkman actually exceeding Ramirez's BRAR production four times ('01, '04, '06 and '07), though Ramirez's year-to-year fluctuations are much smaller, with the exception of a 'turrible' '07). All this was accomplished while switch hitting and playing 1B, LF, CF and RF for the 'Stros. Searching for a moral of this story? The last standing "Killer-B" deserves to be ranked similarly to Manny, not 17 spots behind him.
I originally had Kinsler ranked higher, within the top-15, before a recent offensive slump prompted me to re-examine his overall profile. Kinsler is certainly having a superb year (EqA .304), but his career numbers suggest an interesting paradox: he is markedly over-achieving in some key areas, while noticeably under-achieving in some others. (note: Ian's EqA was .311 in '08.) Kinsler is a mediocre second-base defender (despite a 12.4 UZR/150 in '09, Kinsler's UZR's the past three years read -11.2, -12.4 and -7.3), and his career ISO numbers sit below .200 (despite a .278 clip in '09). A potential reason for his increased power output is a significantly higher Z-Swing% (75.1%, as opposed to his previous career high of 65.2%, set in '08). Still, evidence exists that Kinsler, 26, may be playing below his current skill level, and I firmly believe that he will be able to improve his already stellar performance before the end of this season. Take for instance, Kinsler's line-drive percentage, which is down 9.2% from last season, currently sits 5.9 percentage points below his career average. That disparity is significant, and I am confident that it will rise, taking with it his .277 BABIP. While I don't expect a repeat of the .339 BABIP he posted in 121 games last season, I would not be surprised if his 2009 mark trended towards his career .309 standard in the coming weeks. That should culminate in a .315/.370/.550(ish) line, with 25-30 HR over a full slate of games; elite production, particularly should he maintain a UZR/150 in the 8.0-12.0 range. Kinsler has also converted 59 of 64 SB attempts the past 2+ seasons (10 for 11 in '09), further adding to his value.
31-40. Brandon Webb (36), Ryan Braun (20), Dan Haren (39), Frankie Rodriguez (N-R), Matt Holliday (51-60), Kevin Youklis (10), Vladimir Guerrero (61-80), Jake Peavy (27), Joe Mauer (4), Carlos Quentin (61-80)
Joe Mauer's OPS this season is 1.400, his ISO .438, and through 22 games, the Twins backstop is only three home runs shy of his career high (13, set in '06). For years I have defended the 6'5", 230 lb Mauer's dismal power output to overly-cynical Twins fans, promising them that the most graceful stroke in baseball would eventually net 25-30 HR annually. Mauer's lack of HR production early in his career has been largely attributable to a humble, line-drive oriented mindset; 'lofting' the ball simply had not worked its way into Mauer's toolkit as he made his yearly assaults on the batting title. Still, a player as naturally strong as Mauer was bound to eventually start "running into" homers as he matured, without compromising his superlative mental approach at the plate or his willingness to use all fields (in fact, much of the LH Mauer's early HR-binge has been directed at the left-field seats, not even including a prospective big-fly robbed by Tigers LF Josh Anderson). All too often, we looked at Joe Mauer, such a technically advanced hitter at such a young age, as a finished product; as infallible as he seemed on the diamond, it was hard not to.
But Mauer, a career .322/.404/.473 hitter (with a Z-Contact% of 93.4 and a sparkling 88.1 Contact% overall), is only 25, pretty damn young to have transmogrified into 1957 Ted Williams. But through the first month of his season (he sat out April with a back injury), Mauer has been just that, all while defending a premium position with virtuosity. Could Joe finish the year with an OPS above 1.000, while winning the AL batting title? I don't see why not (and .315/.950 is a lock). Does this make him a top-5 player in the league? Without question. And, to the Sporting News orangutan pollsters: he's better than unilateral leg paresis patient Vladimir Guerrero, who, along with declining offensive production (.658 OPS, .094 ISO, -0.28 WPA in '09; .886 OPS, .216 ISO, 2.17 WPA in '08), has averaged a Canseco-esque -15.4 UZR in RF the past three years. Not to be a prick to one of my childhood idols, but it ain't even close.
K-Rod, on the other hand, has no place on this list. A relief ace with a BB/9 ratio of 4.54 and 4.48 the past two seasons? This means a walk is given up, on average, every-other appearance; needless to say, that's plenty of sticky situations in the ninth inning, and Rodriguez has posted WHIP's of 1.24 and 1.29 in those campaigns, respectively. (Mo Rivera last year posted a BB/9 ratio of 0.72, for comparison, to go with his career WHIP of 1.02.) Frankie's K/9, perhaps the statistic for which he is most well known, is still quite formidable, however it dropped by 1.89 K between '07 and '08 (12.03 to 10.14), and has fallen by an additional 1.42 K this season (to 8.72). Add all this to a humble 54.2% first-pitch strike percentage, and you have yourself a nightly ninth-inning gut check. (Again, for comparison's sake, Joe Nathan has thrown 70.6% of his first pitches for strikes in '09.)
If it seems strange that I'm using Rivera as a comp, while completely excluding him from the top-50; it shouldn't. My beef with closers lies not in their skill, rather it's a fundamental usage/role definition problem. Rivera works the ninth in almost exclusivity, as does K-Rod. And the simple truth is that the game is not always "saved" in the ninth, nor is a "save" always a terribly useful thing (consider 3-run leads). For such a pigeon-holed 'role player' to earn a top-50 spot, he needs to be something amazingly special, essentially what Rivera has been for the majority of his career (with the exception of this season, where he suffered some major hiccups in key spots vs. rival Bean Town). Nathan, the only closer to make the top-50, has hit some pot-holes as well (KC, NYY), but his recent track record exceeds even that of Rivera, with three consecutive years of sub-2.00 ERA's (and four of the past five less than 2.00). K-Rod earned MVP votes last season for his record 62 saves, an impressive statistical anomaly, but one that was more reflective of contextual fortuity (lots of small, late-inning leads courtesy of a low-scoring offense and exemplary pitching) than superlative skill. To his credit, he's off to a stellar start in '09, but without the nonpariel peripherals necessary to justify a top-50 spot.
41-50. Jason Bay (33), Chad Billingsley (61-80), Clifford Lee (51-60), Torii Hunter (61-80), Victor Martinez (29), Roy Oswalt (31), Carlos Zambrano (61-80), Cole Hamles (26), Brian McCann (51-60)
Roy Oswalt per 162 games: 17-9, 3.17, 1.203 WHIP, 189 SO, and 51 BB, numbers not too different from those posted by fellow Roy, Toronto's Halladay. Each righty is a workhourse despite their radically different statures. Oswalt's numbers may actually be better than Halladay's, though the ERA+'s are not as impressive playing against NL Central competition as Halladay's are, competing in the AL East. (For some flawed and circumstantial (but highly entertaining) evidence of this, see Oswalt vs. Reds: 23-1, 2.35 ERA. Or just picture Mr. Red lying in the dark, maimed and mangled, slowly bleeding-out in the bowels of Great American Ballpark). Roy has been a little slow out of the gate this year, as he was in 2008, but it'll take more than one mediocre month-and-a-half stretch to bounce the a battle-tested 220+ inning/year stallion from the top-50, especially with the WBC having significantly altered his throwing program this spring '(read: accelerated, then bizarrely 'punctuated'...there were a whole lot of off-days during this year's tournament).
Time for a commendation; that was a bold selection of Chad Billingsley 42nd by the S.N. panel, one I can't help but respect. I had Billingsley a bit lower (maybe issuing an implicit rankings demerit based on his '08 playoff struggles), but 201 K in 200.1 innings last season, and a record that is already 20 games above .500, attest to how good a pitcher Billingsley is. And that's saying nothing of how good he can be if he continues getting ahead in counts (career high 61.3 F-Strike%) and intelligently utilizing a rapidly-improving cut-fastball (which he has constituted 23.4% of all Billingsley's pitches thrown this season, up from 18.8% last year and 14.4% the year before). The only caveat to the increasing diversification of his repertoire is a worrisome abandonment of his plus (92.2 mph, '09) four-seam fastball (which he has thrown only 50.7% of the time this season, a very low number for an elite power pitcher). Giants RHP Matt Cain, a good comp for Billingsley, has thrown his fastball 63.9% of the time this season, despite a velocity dip of nearly 2.5 mph from his 2006-2007 campaigns (where he threw it 72.0 and 64.5% of the time, respectively). Just like Billingsley, Cain is enjoying his best season through the first two months of '09, and is throwing his fastball at a career-low rate. Still, while Cain's average velocity is dropping (perhaps necessitating diversification), Billingsley has added mph's to his heater in '09. Additionally, career-low rates are both relative and subject to multiple interpretations; while Cain is still throwing his 4-seam fastball nearly 13% more than is Billingsley, if one assumes a relative equivalency of Cain's slider (85-86) and Billingsley's cutter (88-89)(which is obviously not a 1:1 equality, but will suffice to form an umbrella heading of "hard stuff"), the FB+SL/CT percentages for Cain and Billingsley are 72.6% and 74.6%, respectively. This "hard stuff" percentage is substantially different from what Billingsley recorded last year or in ''07 (78.0%, 79.2%), but as he currently stands with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a paltry .209 BAA, this is obviously not a problem in and of itself. However, not many pitchers can get by throwing only half of their pitches as fastballs; even Livan Hernandez, who hasn't been able to throw a D-I quality "plus" heater since the early 2000's, hasn't thrown less than 56.8% fastballs since 2003. Perhaps this is an early-season anomaly, but I'm guessing LAD brass would be relieved to see Billingsley sitting closer to his career mark of 61.2% than his current mark by season's end.
***The Minnfarction List***
(1) Albert Pujols, (2) Chase Utley, (3) Hanley Ramirez, (4) Joe Mauer, (5) Evan Longoria, (6) Johan Santana, (7) Zach Grienke, (8) Carlos Beltran, (9) Alex Rodriguez, (10) Kevin Youklis, (11) David Wright, (12) Roy Halladay, (13) Josh Hamilton, (14) Grady Sizemore, (15) Miguel Cabrera, (16) Lance Berkman, (17) Tim Lincecum, (18) Ian Kinsler, (19) Manny Ramirez, (20) Ryan Braun, (21) Justin Morneau, (22) Mark Teixeria, (23) C.C. Sabathia, (24) Chipper Jones, (25) Brian Roberts, (26) Cole Hamels, (27) Jake Peavy, (28) Adrian Gonzalez, (29) Victor Martinez, (30) Jose Reyes, (31) Roy Oswalt, (32) Joey Votto, (33) Jason Bay, (34) Jermaine Dye, (35) Nick Markakis, (36) Brandon Webb, (37) Joe Nathan, (38) Curtis Granderson, (39) Dan Haren, (40) Ichiro Suzuki, (41) Adam Dunn, (42) Derek Lowe, (43) Justin Verlander, (44) Raul Ibanez, (45) Josh Johnson, (46) Carl Crawford, (47) Ryan Howard, (48) Yovani Gallardo, (49) Ryan Zimmerman, (50) Felix Hernandez
(51-60 (alphabetical): Chris Carpenter, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp, Cliff Lee, Brian McCann, Dustin Pedroia, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria)
* Apologies to Chris Carpenter, who has not allowed an earned run this season, but has, unfortunately, been on the DL...again. If the DL were a country, Carpenter would be well-advised to apply for dual citizenship. Nevertheless, completely healthy, he's in the top-25. "And a somber happy trails to..." Bombykol cheeseball Prince Fielder, one year removed from 50 HR. Unfortunately, its beginning to look like the ~.500 SLG ('06, '08, '09) is standard, and the .618 ('07) was aberration. Plus, he's only my second-favorite vegan Prince. I should also take the opportunity to mention Alfonso Soriano's gargantuan over-ratedness; only once in the past five seasons ('06, WAS) has Soriano managed a BRAR above 40. Combine that with declining UZR values (which, while passable, have been almost entirely contingent on high assist totals), plateaued SB numbers (19 each of the past two seasons), and his characteristic low OBP, and it becomes apparent that the 32 year-old outfielder is no longer amongst the glitterati of the league.
(61-80 (alphabetical): Bobby Abreu, Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Chad Billingsley, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, John Danks, Vladimir Guerrero, Aaron Hill, Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Carlos Quentin, Adam Wainwright, Carlos Zambrano)
** Next big thing alert: Watch for Justin Upton (.317 EqA (.325/.398/.618), .291 ISO, 9 HR) to crack the top-50 handily in 2010. He may never have the contact rate that one might like (67.3 Contact%, although with a 78.5 ZContact%), nevertheless, he may have the most torquelicious hack in the big leagues, a violent, titanic spectacle that produces tape-measure home runs and searing line-drives with ease. Also, keep an eye out for Rickie Weeks (who was on pace for ~40 HR before being lost for the season to a wrist injury), Adam Jones, (EqA .342) Colby Rasmus, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Weiters (AAA), Tommy Hanson (AAA) and Strass (SDSU) to garner consideration for the top-50 list in 2010. And for current VORP-king Jason Bartlett to revert back to the ~.275 EqA'er his previous performances indicated he should be in his very best year (which this most certainly is: .346 EqA, .411 BABIP). Not all of Bartlett's success has been serendipitously-placed pebbles and cockamamie defensive positioning, however; his Contact% remains stellar (86.3%), line-drives are up 8.7% from last year, he successfully converted stolen 14 of 15 SB attempts, and his UZR of 1.9 (which extrapolates out to a 9.7 UZR/150) is nearly equal to his '08 offering of 2.1 (logged over 125 games). Still, regression is on the way, and when it hits it will land Bartlett comfortably outside of the top-50 (and likely even the top-80).
Either way, Bill Smith will continue to look like a jackass for the Delmon Young swap (which, by the way, I was abhorrently wrong about; good Lord was I ever wrong...)
