Strange happenin’s all around the baseball world as of late. Ian Snell has put up a microscopic 0.34 ERA in fours starts for Triple-A Indianapolis; if this currently frustrated righty isn’t a prime candidate to pull a Doyle Alexander down the stretch for some contender, I don’t know who is. In other news, something called ‘Fu Ye Ni’ currently occupies a space in the Tigers bullpen—still trying to wrap my mind around that one. And, being as it is now the twentieth of July, Mr. Met needs to start being seriously concerned. The national media and fans outside of New York City proper, citing the return of Jose Reyes (and the eventual returns of the Carloses, Delgado and Beltran), seem to believe it’s a foregone conclusion that the Mets will be in contention come September. Equally unsettling, some actually believe Jeff Francoeur (who has actually managed to lower his EqA 32 points from his .229 showing in Atlanta) will prove a positive, nay an essential acquisition in the realization of this fantasy. If you believe that, I’ve got some ocean front property in Idaho you may be interested in. This team is earmarked for a middle-of-the-division finish despite what Joe Gariolgio (or whoever runs the sub shop racket in New York) has tricked himself into believing.
History doesn’t bode well for this bunch. One would assume that if you run a ballclub that has been repeatedly weak down the stretch, one would shy away from a manager who has been at the forefront of several “Tin Cup-esque” collapses. That is, unless you happen to be Omar Minaya, in which case this hiring makes perfect sense. (Fun brain teaser, courtesy of Wally: in a world of pure, unfettered energetics, would the cognitive dissonance Omar Minaya experienced trading for a white player be sufficient to counteract the negative karma from two consecutive epic September collapses? My vote is YES!) For years I myself had a front row seat to Jerry Manuel’s managerial struggles when his talented-but-listless White Sox teams spoon-fed AL Central Titles to the Twins. Thus, if you are Mets management, Jerry Manuel represents everything you don’t want: a staunch baseball traditionalist with a laissez-fair attitude towards his players who served as the top lieutenant to each of the team’s previous two failures (spearheaded by Willie Randolph). Manuel is only the head of the shit-berg, however.
Let’s talk about Jose Reyes, whose presence the past two Septembers likely hurt the team more than has his prolonged absence this season. A transcendent talent, Reyes is a legitimate burner on the basepaths who also possesses a stellar defensive skill-set. And examining the superficial numbers, one would come to the conclusion that Reyes was a more-than-effective player in both '07 and '08. In those seasons, he’s posted OPS’ of .775 and .833, respectively, from the leadoff spot, and has been above average defensively (1.8 UZR/150), despite some concentration lapses and a disturbing degree of general carelessness. However, going beyond these numbers we start to see an alarming trend. During the final months of the last two seasons, Reyes has been downright suspect. Take for example an interesting stat from the Mets first collapse (2007): Reyes’ fly ball rate. For the season, the Met shortstop kept it at a fairly reasonable 38 percent, but for September, he boosted it up to 46 percent, easily his highest total for the season; being a leadoff man with fairly limited power, that ratio is downright obscene. Not only does it indicate a sea change in his plate approach, but it also squanders his most valuable asset, speed (which is best served by keeping the ball on the ground). Couple his late-season collapses with a well-documented lack of focus, add Citi Fields enormous dimensions and folks, we have problem, even if Reyes does return as expected. There have long been rumblings behind the scenes in Flushing that Reyes tends to lose interest when the Mets fall behind in the standings, and I can’t believe that a ten game deficit in late July, coupled with a certain “Frenchy” batting fifth, will do much to rev Mr. Reyes’ engine. I’ve seen it in print a hundred times, “as Reyes goes, so go the Mets.” If indeed this is true, the rest of the season could be a perfect storm of sorts for a titanic Mets swoon. With no timetable set for the returns of Delgado and Beltran, is there any hope of reinforcements on the horizon?
Short, passively-worded answer: not really. In recent years the Mets have hinged their future on everything from overrated youngsters (Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Jonathan Niese), to hopelessly flawed prospects (Lastings Milledge, Fernando Martinez). And the truth of the matter is simple: much like the substance-less LA of A system, the Met’s system is downright bad. So forget about it; Martinez, Niese, Wilmer Florez, Bobby Parnell and others are not saving the Metropolitans…it just ain’t gonna happen. But this predicament is not a mere prospect problem. Like a raccoon with Alzheimer’s, Omar Minaya has this pesky habit of diving headfirst into other people’s garbage, even when there’s essentially nothing there to be had. 'What, Marlon Anderson flamed out with the Nationals? Sign him quick, before the Schaumburg Flyers get in on the bidding!' 'Say, what’s that pile of shit those flies are circling around…is Fernando Nieve under there? Jesus Christ, somebody dig him out...and get him a guarenteed contract, already!' 'Hola, Omar here...Livan Hernandez is on the market you say? Will we take him? Are tacos delicious? ...Of course!' (Fun tidbit: Livan's ERA over his past two starts is 19.29, and batters have hit .568 against him in that stretch!)
What’s my point? This nasty trend just isn’t conducive to winning. Ask Dan O’Dowd about his early years as Rockies head man; other teams don’t sign these types of players for a reason. Still, the Wilpon brothers have allowed Minaya to operate like this for quite a while now (1) because the Mets have had the money, and (2) because the stars tend to clean up his messes, at least in the final standings. But now, with injuries to Beltran, Delgado and others, it has become obvious that this type of season was inevitable; the Mets are a sinking ship, and after they finish with 78 wins they’ll have to do some serious self-examination on every level. So, Joe at the hoagie shop, enjoy watching another year slip away in the East, and while you’re at it, get on a treadmill you fat guinea greaseball. Let's hear it for the MIDWEST!
