Billy Beane’s trigger finger has to be getting itchier by the night. With his offense struggling and the pitching staff decimated by injuries, an Oakland A’s fire sale seems inevitable. Guys like Nomar Garciapara, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Bobby Crosby could all certainly be had…but would anyone want them? Then, of course, there is big, scary Coors monster Matt Holliday, perhaps a fit for the Cardinals (even with Mark DeRosa), the Red Sox or the Giants. Certainly the last place A's are looking for more than a compensatory first-round pick for their big offseason acquisition, but whether teams can and will bite is another issue. Surely calls will be placed, but Beane should not expect to be bowled over by the quality of the offers for what amounts to a three-month rental (followed by an assured Boras-fueled exodus). Needless to say, the A's are not in an enviable situation...however, a sudden upswing by several young pitchers has made things a lot more interesting in a pitiful west division. The A’s are one of the more interesting rosters in the big leagues, and with vestiges their winning days still semi-intact and lurking, they warrant further examination. Just how far can this Oakland team go (hint: 9.5 GB, expectations should be tempered)...?
Let’s start with the rotation, of which Dallas Braden is the elder statesman. While he might not yet be comfortable puttering around the clubhouse, waxing poetic about the steroid era, his 26 years of age looks downright ancient next to the other arms on Oakland's staff. In fact, injuries to veterans like Justin Duchsher and Dana Eveland may have been a blessing in disguise, allowing Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro and Josh Outman to get some on the job training earlier than expected. While each has taken their lumps, they appear to be settling into a groove over the past few weeks. Cahill, Mazzaro and--to a lesser-extent--Anderson have done what many in the A’s front office expected, becoming effective but inconsistent major league arms (the first two having ridden devastatingly heavy fastballs to surprising early success). Here are some quick VORP's on the three arms:
Mazarro: +11.4, Cahill: +10.4, Anderson: -6.8 (though traditionalists will point to his 5.45 ERA as acceptable for a youngster)
*Quick note: Vin Mazarro's DERA (Defense-adjusted-) is 2.68, a full four-tenths of a run better than his NRA (neutral-, and thus not adjusted for defense. This constitutes a major disparity, and suggests the Athletics defense is truly subpar. Considering the numbers for Cahill (4.04, 4.57) and Anderson (6.36, 6.51), it beings to look suspiciously like a pattern...one the A's pitchers can't be thrilled about. In a recent six game winning streak, Anderson, Cahill and Mazzaro all kept their WHIP’s under one, numbers not usually associated with rookies barely of the drinking age. While none seem to be much of the strikeout ilk (none are on pace for more than 100 K’s this year), their control and poise cannot be questioned. While these three have been heralded, they’re not the only guys contributing. Josh Outman was, and still is a relative unknown. He stuff is far from overwhelming, but he has yet to have a bad start and in a division this weak, that might be enough for your fourth or fifth starter (note: since this was written, Outman has elected to undergo TJ surgery, ending his season). Now, if this type of rotation seems a bit like a house of cards, reinforcements are on their way; Duchscher, and Eveland are on their way back to health, and Sean Gallagher--he of the 98 mph (albeit wild) fastball--all are waiting for their opportunity. So, if the rotation was a concern before the season, it now rests as an area of cautious optimism…I give it a solid B grade so far.
The Bullpen is flat-out underrated, like Tina Fey pre-"30 Rock." Many people who claim to follow baseball wouldn’t know Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, and Santiago Casilla from Joe the Plumber, to borrow a phrase from the Jim Bowden-esque Sarah Palin. So nevermind the bullpen, it isn't a problem and it it grades out as an easy A. If you don’t believe me, just watch closer Andrew Bailey (VORP: +18.1); he’s the ringleader of the solid troop the A's have lurking in their pen. Time to move onto something a lot more fun: offense (though it hasn't been that way thus far for Oakland).
Being a statistics guy, I can see the value of Jack Cust and the potential upside of the Jason Giambi acquisition, though its becoming increasingly difficult to justify the latter. I’ll be the first to admit that the Giambino has lost a step or five after he stopped plunging sharp objects into his ass, but a guy who’s hit 11 homers while getting on base 34 percent of the time is still welcome[ish] on my 25 man roster (though absolutely not in the cleanup spot, and preferably not even in the starting lineup until he turns it around with the bat, VORP: -2.4 ). Cust is cut from the same mold--the former Friars farmhand has produced good power (.418 SLG) with a good, if not great, on-base percentage from the DH spot (VORP: 3.0). These two are joined in the middle of the order by ringer Matt Holliday, he of a team-leading +15.5 VORP (and the second of the A's five position players in the positive). And though his first trip through the AL has been an up-and-down ride, he's finally starting to look like the guy we saw fueling Rocktober a few seasons back. (Side note: that guy is positively beastly.) The rest of the lineup is patched together with journeymen and less-than-heralded youngsters, but I’d like to take a minute to take a look at 2nd basemen Adam Kennedy (VORP: +14.1), a forgotten man who the Cardinals cut and was seemingly signed as a stopgap during the Mark Ellis’ injury. Indeed, something quite odd has happened. Kennedy has produced. While his career pedigree doesn’t indicate he’ll keep it up, the A’s are happy to ride the wave, similar to the John Marby roll of a few years back, when Marby, a career reserve, got on a bizarre roll and helped carry the A’s to a division title. If Kennedy proves to be the next Marby, A’s fans (and Beane) will be more than happy to hold on to him. All things considered I give the A’s lineup a D (and, in case you're wondering, the suddenly power-starved Kurt Suzuki (+9.6) and the perpetually power-starved Ryan Sweeney (+1.7) are the other two positive-VORP'ers...ouch).
In most cases, these marginal grades would reek of a bad, no-upside club. And even with Mike Scioscia’s management continuing to reek like a toilet after White Castle, the A’s likely won’t be able to make up their current 9.5 game deficit to take the AL West. Nevertheless, I still believe that the A’s can and will develop into a decent team in 2009 (that is, exceeding their PECOTA-predicted 72 wins). At the very least, if Cahill, Anderson and Mizarro continue to develop, there’s no reason to believe that Oakland is anything less than the most intriguing last-place club in baseball.
