According to the statistical savants at Baseball Prospectus, the Milwaukee Brewers have a 49.6% chance of making the playoffs: 30.4% as division champs, and 19.2% as the wild card. Most of these percentage points are attributable to two factors: the offense, and the golden arm (&, recently, bat) of Yovani Gallardo. The 50.4% chance they will miss the playoffs is mostly attributable to the other four arms in the Brewers rotation, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper. While Bush has been surprisingly effective this year (2-0, 3.83), Parra, Suppan and Looper all have ERA+'s below 95 (100*LG ERA/ERA), WHIP's above 1.487 and SO/BB rates below 2.0. Not exactly playoff material, especially considering that Dave Bush is essentially a league-average, .500 pitcher for his career, and he was markedly less than that last season during a strange home/road platoon with Seth McClung.
Obviously the Brewers need pitching. Badly. But after last year's trade for C.C. Sabathia, in which Matt Laporta was dealt (along with Rob Bryson, Zack Jackson and Matt Brantley), they are startlingly short on tradeable assets, at least those of the "top prospect, nearly-ready-for-the-show" variety. Two such guys, Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, are likely untouchable, and with Bret Lawrie moving out from behind the plate (to second base), the Brewer's duo of catching prospects (Angel Salmone and Jonathan Lucroy) is unlikely to be split up anytime soon. So, to deal prospects or to play for the future? It's a conundrum, and in the balance hangs the season of the '09 Brew Crew; pretty weighty stuff for GM Doug Melvin and Co. One would assume all trade options are being pursued, yet is hamstringing the future for yet another band-aid fix really the best idea for this dynamic young group of hitters (& Gallardo)?
First, what do the Brewers have in terms of tradable assets at the big league level? J.J. Hardy is currently struggling amidst the pressures of a contract year (he signed a one-year, 4.65 million dollar deal in January); being as his contract expires after the season, teams likely won't be chomping at the bit to acquire the (expensive) services of a .696 OPS hitter whom they would only control for four more months. Likewise, Mike Cameron is in the last season of his current deal, a campaign that will net the 36 year-old ten million dollars. Unlike Hardy, however, he has rewarded the organization's commitment in him by posting a .968 OPS and a team-high 16.2 VORP through May 16. What's more, Cameron's name has been floated in trade discussions before, most prominently in off-season talks with the Yankees. The essence of these talks were more economic than strategic, however, with the Brewers looking to unload Cameron's afore-mentioned whale of a contract, and the Yankees equally ready to rid themselves of the vastly overrated Melky Cabrera (who is currently under contract for one year & 1.4 million). Recently recalled Mat Gamel may be option number three, but I wouldn't count on it; the prospect sheen is still very much on the 23 year-old third-sacker. Gamel suffered through his share of struggles in the second half of last season (likely related to a then undisclosed elbow problem), but overall he still dismantled AA pitching to the tune of .329/.395/.537 (35 2B, 7 3B, 19 HR, 96 RBI). What's more, he has parlayed that success into a monster 2009 (.336/.428/.647, 8 HR in 119 AB), and with inter-league play on the horizon, the defensive sieve has earned a call-up to serve as the team's DH in American League stadiums. The bottom line is that Gamel is just too good to give up, especially considering the team traded fellow baby-bopper LaPorta last July, and neither Hardy nor Cameron is an attractive-enough chip to land the Crew the front-line starter they so desperately need.
Assuming J.J. Hardy is firmly entrenched at short, and with Rickie Weeks finally rewarding the organization's patience at second, one would assume that the Brewers would view a young, raw middle-infielder as a tradable commodity. I've personally been slow to buy into the Alcides Escobar hype machine, although it should be noted that most industry insiders do not seem to echo this irresolution. Known for his defensive prowess, Escobar put up impressive offensive numbers last year for AA Huntsville, posing a .328/.363/.434 with 179 H (34 XBH) to go with 31 SB (81% success rate). His breakout did not carry into 2009 spring training, however, as pitchers routinely knocked the bat out of his hands with fastballs on the inner-half. Escobar is strong enough, with quick enough wrists, to handle that pitch, but he certainly needs to make some adjustments before he can be deemed big-league ready. Right now his stride is too long at the plate, causing an unnecessary amount of movement in his hands during his load-phase; all this motion culminates in a slightly long swing, though his violent cuts do showcase tremendous bat speed. And though he will likely never be a patient hitter, his pitch recognition skills leave much to be desired, as his .308 OBP this season (10 BB in 145 AB) in AAA Nashville will attest. To Escobar's credit, he does possess one of the strongest infield arms in all of baseball, and is a lanky, soft-handed defensive maestro at the shortstop position. Once he eliminates the careless errors that characteristically plague young middle infielders (see: Andrus, Elvis), he could take over Troy Tulowitzki's place as doyer of the short circuit.
If the Brewers retain Hardy at short (and with Weeks at second), Escobar could slot in at third next season. While this is a possibility, it seems more likely they would move Hardy off of short (despite his 36 RAR their last season), or simply let him walk, as Escobar is an absolute wizard at the position. Hardy could see time at third, also a good situation, which would facilitate Mat Gamel's move off the hot-corner to a corner OF spot (as his natural position of DH does not exist in the N.L.). In this scenario, Corey Hart would likely take over in CF if he is retained, or Tony Gwynn Jr. if he is not. Perhaps more logical still would be to move the defensively-challenged Weeks to the outfield. If the team retains the services of Hart in RF, this would mean moving Weeks to center field; and while he certainly has the athleticism to pull off the switch, I'd be wary putting two converted infielders next to each other in the outfield (the other, of course, being Ryan Braun). Many would likely jump to compare this harsh move to the Rays' switch of Upton from IF to center several years ago. A more apt comparison might be the long-rumored, yet never-consummated switch of Ray Durham to CF (though he did trot out to the great green pasture for one inning in 2005). The stout and muscular Weeks is much more similar to Durham athletically than he is to the lanky, graceful Upton, who frankly was born to play the outfield. Weeks was not, though despite marked improvements and impressive range, its fairly apparent that he wasn't born to play infield either. If attempted, this move would require a full offseason and spring training to pull off; nevertheless, a move to CF would free up a middle-infield spot for Escobar, with the defensive butcher that is Mat Gamel likely taking over hot corner responsibilities.
It's quite obvious, from their complete exclusion in the above scenarios, that I don't think highly of the Brewers' third base platoon of Billy Hall and Craig Counsell. While Hall is hitting a respectable .278 this year, his BABIP is a robust .338; translation, he's a .220 hitter who has been obscenely lucky in the early going, and still his production has been only slightly above average (1.9 WARP3). The ying to Hall's yang is Craig Counsell, he of World Series fame for both the Marlins ('97) and the Diamondbacks ('01). Counsell, who looks as if he's toned town his batting stance from his early, opisthotonic days, nevertheless remains a career .246 EqA hitter, 69 runs below average over the course of 4670 PA (through May 16). His BABIP in '09? .360! If these guys' seasons were any more artificial, they had might as well invest in some fake breasts. Fortunately, Milwaukee has positioned itself to simply replace the Hall/Counsell platoon once the bottom inevitably falls out. The team can survive half a season with Mat Gamel at third base, if for no other reason that to get his potent bat in the lineup. It beats the hell out of the alternative.
Assuming history doesn't repeat itself, and the Brewers don't pull off a blockbuster trade of, say, Escobar, Lucroy, Parra, and some A-ballers for Indians reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (he of Brobdingnagian overratedness), one intriguing option still exists: the de facto "retention" of Ben Sheets.
Brewers fans have the right to be skeptical of this move, as Sheets has started 30+ games just once in the past four seasons, however a healthy Sheets is still one of the most dynamic pitching talents in baseball (his ERA+'s+ the past five seasons: 162, 128, 119, 117, 139). Is a three-four month gamble on Sheets (who did go 13-9, with a 3.09 ERA and 158 K last season to go along with 5 CG) really any more risky than placing your playoff fate in the hands of Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper and Seth McClung? Obviously, this is purely speculative, and an overwhelming possibility exists that Melvin wants nothing to do with the perpetually-injured Sheets at this point in time. To complicate matters, rumors of Sheet's impending signing with the Texas Rangers have surfaced; this from the Rangers blog "Right Field Bleachers:"
"As Ben Sheets continues to recover from his most recent surgery that Milwaukee paid for, reports of Sheets sightings around Rangers facilities and rumors of what that might indicate are flowing onto baseball blogs as rapidly as menstrual blood flowed out of Big Ben’s tender and constantly sandy vagina for most of his Brewers tenure."
Manny Parra's last four starts have been pretty good (5.0+ IP, <3 ER); maybe that's the best Milwaukee will be able to do. Here's to hoping Gallardo's arm--and girly, paper-thin, brittle anterior cruciate ligaments--hold up until October 4th...he shouldn't be needing them much past then anyhow.
