Alright all you dreamers and creamers out there, it's time for the 2009 Jonesys, featuring Minnfarction fav "cardiac" Todd Jones, the sheriff of contemporary Christian entrance music! In the spirit of redemption, Jones starts off the column by fessing up to a pretty shitty prediction he made back in April, that Frankie Liriano (5-13, 5.80 ERA) would win the '09 American League Cy Young Award. "Boy was I wrong," Jones admits with the aw-shucks nonchalance of someone for can listen to MercyMe without entertaining sociopathic thoughts. No, looks like the Cy will be headed somewhere else in the American League Central...to Detroit! Wait, what? Evidently Zach Greinke's 203 ERA+ isn't enough to vault him ahead of Verlander (132 ERA+), who just "[couldn't have] come up bigger in his final two starts of the regular season."
Verlander's last two starts: 15.2 IP, 7 ER
Greinke's last seven starts: 48.0 IP, 6 ER
Not exactly a convincing start for the sheriff, but if Todd Jones would've been pulled every time he loaded the bases with less than two out, we'd have to strike a good number of those 319 career saves from the record book. Plus, we all deserve our fair shot at redemption...
Best Trend: The death of the OPS fascination and the rebirth of going with guys who just flat-out play.
Y'know, real men like Willie Bloomquist, the ultimate multi-positional grinder. The man grinds so hard, all he has is nubs where his appendages should be. Arte Moreno didn't even mind him grinding his 19 year-old wife Carole during the Angels ALDS celebration, despite the fact that Bloomquist plays for the Royals. That's just how he operates...he even grinds street organs in his spare time.
In response to sheriff Jonsey, let me offer one small critique. Despite what the stubbliest of real men may believe, OPS is not the pinnacle of sabermetric achievement; it is a crude analytical tool at best. And its pervasiveness in mainstream sports journalism (and the occasional telecast) does not represent any kind of radical, revelatory movement, as would be implied by Jones' assertion: "the days of trying to reinvent the wheel are on hold." Think of it more like a compromise between intelligent baseball analysis and curmudgeonly old-schoolish batting average dependence. The minute I hear Joe Buck drop a wOBA or EqA on us, I'll write a thousand word treatise on why I have been, and remain a jackass. But seriously Jonesy, "reinventing the wheel?" The two basic tenets of an OPS evaluation are (1) getting on base, and (2) hitting with power...not exactly avant-garde concepts in the realm of baseball thinktankeries. In fact, strip a player of these abilities and you're left with...Willie Bloomquist.
Biggest Suprise: The Rockies
"They went all 1980 U.S. hockey team on us," Jones claims. Again, a small nugget of constructive criticism is called for: this is staggeringly stupid. The only similarity between the 2009 Colorado Rockies and the "Miracle on Ice" squad is that they both trained in CO. Oh, and each team had a player with the surname of Baker; Jeff and Bill, respectively (strangely enough, Bill went on to play defenseman for the 1981 Colorado Rockies ice hockey club, now the New Jersey Devils). But that's about it. The U.S. Olympic hockey team was a group of amateur no-names led by a legendary coach (Herb Brooks) who improbably overcame the juggernaut Soviet Union team before defeating Finland for the Gold. The Colorado Rockies, on the other hand, were a relatively recognizable group of professionals (led by $16.6 million-man Todd Helton) who won the prestigious National League wild card over the San Fransisco Giants (they of a .257/.309/.389 offensive output). Following this resounding victory, Rocktober was swiftly derailed by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, who prevailed three games to one.
As for their coach, Jim Tracy is a virtual lock to win NL Manager of the Year. He did, after all, post a 74-42 record following the firing of 2007 NL M.O.Y. second-runner-up Jimmy Buffett. That said, manager is a vastly overrated position, trailing only Ryder Cup captainship and 'being Ned Colletti' in terms of sporting overratedness. Tracy's sterling record in 2009 has as much to do with his managerial ability as did his 135-189 stint with Pittsburgh several years ago: not much. Players decide the games; managers only have two real jobs. The first is managing arms, which most skippers regularly fuck up with intransigent pitch counts, a stubborn instance on using closers exclusively in the ninth inning and overly-active situational mixing and matching. The second is putting their team in the best possible position to score runs, which most also fuck up by unnecessary sacrifice bunting and traditionalist lineup structuring that awards inferior hitters with more PA's (god forbid Joe Mauer should hit in the two-hole over Alexi Casilla).
Best Story: Derek Jeter (breaking Lou Gerhig's record for hits by a Yankee)
In his final AB of the season, Ken Griffey Jr. spanked hit number 2,747 up the gut. Junior was lifted for a pinch runner, but following the game he took a lap around the field before being hoisted on his teammates' shoulders and carried into the dugout. All in all, a pretty cool exit (should he choose to accept it) for a man that has meant a lot to the game of baseball.
Jeter's run at Gerhig, while interesting due to the fact that the Yanks hit king has less than 3,000 hits, saw him vault ahead of Dave Parker, Bill Buckner and Rusty Staub (Le Grand Orange). Blown away? Probably not, because this record is more surprising than it is impressive. Jeter still ranks 'only' 49th on the all-time hits list, trailing such immortals as Vada Pinson and Harold Baines. Dare I ask, was The Captain's 2,722nd hit really that big a deal? I've written at length about Jonsey's rather robust boner over Jeter (see "An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part III: I Would Gladly Tickle Derek Jeter's Balls as He Fucks My Girlfriend"), so I'll just leave this one to fester. Moving on...
Breakout Performer: Hanley Ramirez
Let's play a little game. Which of the following seasons constitutes the most breakout-ish of potential breakout seasons?
(a) .301/.400/.540, 125 R, 92 BB, 34 2B, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB
(b) .332/.386/.562, 212 H, 125 R, 48 2B, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 51 SB
(c) .292/.353/.480, 185 H, 119 R, 46 2B, 11 3B, 17 HR, 51 SB
(d) .342/.410/.543, 197 H, 101 R, 42 2B, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB
OK, I admit that was a dumb fucking question. The reason is that a "breakout" season is context-dependent; Albert Pujols just enjoyed arguably his finest season, yet no one is advocating that he has finally 'broken out.' Thus, the answer to aforementioned nonsensical question is, "whatever came first" (c, in this case, having occurred in 2006). Being as this was his statistically-weakest season, we could conceivably justify calling 2007 (b) his breakout, a damn fine choice, being as this was the first in a line of three consecutive seasons in which his OPS+ exceeded 140 (145, 146, 151). (*Fyi, (a) = 2008, (d) = 2009.) True, 2009 Hanley did set career highs in BA (by ten points), OBP (also by ten points) and SLG (by negative nineteen points); that said, how was this season anything but business as usual for HanRam? Put differently, how can one argue that a player who has posted WARP3's of 8.3, 9.2 and 7.8 the past three years "broke out" in year three? That's kinda like saying that The Doors 'broke out' with "The Soft Parade," Harrison Ford 'broke out' in "Temple of Doom," or Tim Tebow is 'breaking out' in '09 (excluding backne considerations from rampant steroid abuse).
Biggest Disappointment: The Royals
I was very disappointed with the presidential campaign of Cynthia McKinney. Apparently starring in American Blackout gets you all of 0.12% of the vote, and 30,000 less tallies than a man who views homosexuality as a moral perversion and regards Martin Luther King Jr. as a communist. But back to the Royals...giddyup Jonsey: "I really thought they'd be better. They have good parts, they're just missing something." I totally agree, if by "they have good parts" you mean, their roster is a cataclysmic abyss from which no light or heat can escape, and by "missing something" you mean missing a catcher, shortstop, third baseman, power-hitting corner outfielder, first baseman (so Billy Butler can DH), three starting pitchers, multiple bullpen arms and a competent GM. The Royals had five good pieces in 2009; Greinke, Joakim Soria, Robinson Tejada, Butler and Alberto Callaspo. None of their other pitchers have VORP's above ten, and none of their other hitters have OBP's greater than .340 (in fact, THREE regulars--Olivo, Betancourt, Jacobs--finished the season below .300). With an FIP of 2.33, Greinke would have won approximately 37 games if Moore could've fielded a lineup of nine Oscar Salazars. According to my calculations.
They Deserve Better (2010 Season): Minnesota Twins Fans
"They will freeze outside in April and September. Bad decision not to get a retractable roof. Good luck." First of all, I'm pretty sure the retractable roof idea came up in discussions, and...secondly, well, you know, with global warming and all...and the irrefutable effects of urban heat islands, um...I mean, if you can somehow swap out the majority of your blood plasma with beer, then I guess you could trick yourself into...maybe, y'know...
Aw, nevermind. Maybe we'll be warm when Selig moves our first snowed-out weekender to Miller Park. Other than that, we're probably fucked. Skol Vikings.
