Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Call Me Ishmael

Contributor: Wally

The fad of apocalyptic/post-apocalyptic movies (e.g. 2012, The Road) looks to be in full swing.  But, if I may speak for White Sox fans everywhere--The Cult of Oz, if you will--we could care less.  When we want to entertain frightening notions, we turn to the Sox 2009 depth chart.  Which just got a little deeper.  And by "deeper," I mean "fatter," as yet another superfluous bench player was added to the puzzle, gaping holes in the starting lineup be damned.


Gimmick bet of 2010: Can Jones outslug his BMI?

Andruw Jones, Kenny Williams's white whale.  Or, more accurately, his second white whale; Williams always wanted Ken Griffey Jr.  Finally, once Junior's skills had deteriorated enough, Williams netted him...for Danny Richar and Nick Massett.  Not exactly the kind of package the M's were looking for back in Junior's heyday.  Well, history has repeated itself, as it so often does on the south side of Chicago (see: Everett, Carl; Alomar, Roberto and Sandy).  Kenny wanted Andruw real bad back in 2004, no surprise as the young Jones was a bona fide 50 HR threat at that point in time.  Now Jones looks more like a fifty (read: .050) ISO guy; the shine is off the apple.

Alright, reality check time.  Five years removed from a World Series victory, the 2010 Chicago White Sox could hypothetically field a lineup that looks like this:

C: A.J. Pierzynski
1B: Mark Kotsay
2B: Jayson Nix
3B: Mark Teahen
SS: Omar Vizquel
LF: Andruw Jones
CF: Brent Lillibridge
RF: Alex Rios

Ugh...may this day never come. For those of you that haven't been following the hot stove, one or more of these names may seem out of place.  A recap the Sox's 2009 F/A acquisitions is in order...

Player I: Kotsay, a 34 year-old (come December) first baseman (and likely a communist):

'09 (BOS):  74 AB,   3 XBH,  .257/.291/.324, .216 EqA, -0.5 WARP3
'09 (CWS): 113 AB, 10 XBH, .292/.349/.434, .267 EqA, 0.1 WARP3

Player II: Vizquel, a 43 year-old (come April) shortstop/second baseman who debuted the year after my birth:

'07: 513 AB, 18 2B, 51 RBI, .246/.305/.314, .226 EqA, 3.8 WARP3
'08: 266 AB, 10 2B, 24 RBI, .222/.283/.267, .196 EqA, -0.6 WARP3
'09: 177 AB,  7 2B, 17 RBI, .266/.316/.345, .238 EqA, 1.2 WARP3

Player III: Jones, a 33 year-old (come April) center fielder weighing 437 pounds:

'07: 572 AB, 27 2B, 26 HR, 83 RBI, .222/.311/.413, .251 EqA, 2.8 WARP3
'08: 209 AB,  8 2B,   3 HR,  21 RBI, .158/.256/.249, .171 EqA, -2.0 WARP3
'09: 281 AB, 18 2B, 17 HR, 43 RBI, .214/.323/.459, .259 EqA, 0.6 WARP3

***Net WARP3 for ALL THREE PLAYERS over the past THREE YEARS: 3.1 (note, that includes four seasons in the realm of the negative...)

What a haul!  I feel like I'm having blood let from my abdomen.

But wait a tic...these numbers don't tell everything, do they?  What about leadership, experience, gusto, balls!?!?  Normally, I'd tell you that you're in the wrong place, but today I'm going to attempt to simplify things, pop-psyche style.  Why?  Because these relatively abstract virtues are the only things White Sox management has used to try and sell me on these signings, production be damned.

More importantly, how am I gonna do it?  By labeling people with nebulous, highly arbitrary titles of course!  Consider this more than just an olive branch--consider it a collection of stereotypes interspersed with mysterious acronyms...
  • Mark Kotsay = "Clubhouse guy"

    • One small statistical caveat: Should probably be left in the clubhouse, like a shower caddy or "Jugs" magazine.  His last decent season on the field came five years ago, when he manned center field in Oakland.  Last season, when the White Sox played him in the OF, his UZR/150 was -27.1.

  • Omar Vizquel = "Eager tutor"

    • Practically microscopic caveat: Do as I say, or rather, as I am no longer capable of doing.  Even that may be too kind; Omar was never much of a hitter.  Case in point: he holds a career .327 OBP with an ISO mark of .066.  And he's nearly 43 years old, making him only two years younger than Mark McLemore.  And Ozzie Guillen.

  • Andruw Jones = "Fatty"

    • Tiny little Cheesy Poof of a caveat: Jumbo Jones is a one-tool power hitter who, after July 29, didn't hit a homer en route to posting a .160/.270/.210 the rest of the way.  A power hitter who can't hit for power is one of the more tragic figures in nature.  It's comparable to being a "one-tool" emperor penguin whose shtick is flight.

Bottom line: Mark Teahen is the White Sox best off-season pick-up, by quite a wide margin.  And Mark Teahen doesn't do anything particularly well.  In fact, this is a profound understatement.  His defense is abhorrent at second and in the outfield--though he has showcased his versatility by being below-average at third as well--he can't run, has no power to speak of and is old enough for one to confidently say he has peaked.  With Dayan Viciedo currently on the Andruw Jones diet, here's to hoping Brent Morel arrives quickly, and that his dismal minor-league OBP is less of a harbinger of things to come than his torrid AFL performance.

True, the pieces Chicago gave up for Teahen, Chris Getz and Josh Fields, have been are prime "don't let the door hit you in the ass" candidates from their early days in the show.  Nevertheless, there is value in cheap contracts.  That is, controlling players for multiple years at reasonable salaries has value most non-Yankee teams; in all liklihood, Getz and Fields would have given the Sox more value over the length of their contracts than Teahen will over the length of his, at less cost.  While Teahen will be a subpar starter for one more year under his current deal, plus an arbitration year (in which his salary will most likely be in the 4-5 million dollar range...wayyy more than he is worth), the two newest Royals are playing for nearly league-minimum salaries.  What's more, they have actual value if deployed correctly.  Getz is best suited for a utility role (he is average-below-average at 2B and 3B, well below-average at short), especially one where his one above-average tool, footspeed (25/26 SB/SBA), can be utilized.  Fields, on the other hand, while a defensive sieve at third, has value as a platoon bat at first base, DH or right field, as he more than holds his own against southpaws:

218 PA, 193 AB, 9 2B, 16 HR, 38 RBI, .285/.356/.580 (OPS+ 157)

That's a damn fine line for a guy who is a veritable wind farm against righties.  I quite honestly wish we would have kept him; a .580 SLG is more than a mere usable piece, it is a full-blown asset, particularly given our death of proven power hitters.  Assuming we don't sign a full-time DH, why did we not see the value in having Fields partake in a fluid time-share situation with Konerko, Flowers and a free agent third basemen, e.g. Joe Crede (who can no longer be counted on to play every day anyways), Bobby Crosby (ditto) or Troy Glaus (who may even be available as a NRI come spring time)...?  I'm confused.  Especially as doing this would allow the Sox to move Beckham to short and Ramirez to center (with Getz still manning second), thus allowing the circumnavigation of useless, no-upside signings like Andruw Jones.  Additionally, this improves the D in several significant ways: Beckham goes back to his natural position, Ramirez pulls a B.J. Upton in moving off short (where he was below average), and Jones, who at best profiles as a corner OF, does not force Rios to play out of position in CF (neutralizing his defensive value).  Now where did I put my uppers?

...At least this means we won't grossly overpay for Chone Figgins, right?  I'd assume so.  Barring a blockbuster Konerko trade (which ain't happenin'), no more "major" moves are in store for Chicago's infield...not unless one of these new pieces is moved first, also unlikely, being as they have no value whatsoever.  With that in mind, may I be the first to commend Kenny Williams on a job (hopefully) done this off-season.  Seriously, please stop.  Even Dayton Moore thinks you're out of control.