MINNFARCTION

Hehe...Meh...Ugh

2009-12-25T21:45:00.004-06:00

Contributor: Bombykol

Merry fucking Christmas. What did you get? I got an email, with the following picture attached...

If you're like me, I'm guessing you'll mix your next drink a little stronger. Here's one more pic, this one a bit older...

Now, who's getting excited about the 2010 White Sox?

Moneyball Lives!

2009-12-17T15:52:00.005-06:00

Contributor: Wally

Owing to the relatively modest success of recent Oakland Athletics teams (the nicest way I could think of to put it), it has become common practice to proclaim the death of Moneyball. This, of course, is false. Even if on-base percentage were suddenly and inexplicably to fall out of vogue, which is unlikely being as baseball's most elementary tenant remains reaching base, Moneyball consists of more than simply stocking a lineup with high-OBP guys. Rather, it's about determining market inefficiencies, flaws in player evaluation that allow valuable assets to be had at less than the going rate. Teams have been doing this, well, forever. At least since players started pulling in large salaries. This is how small market teams are able to intermittently compete with the well-financed franchises. Indeed, despite the best efforts of Dayton Moore and Co., Moneyball is still alive and well, even amongst those with resources.

In fact, it's better than just "well"...it's thriving. And not just in baseball--in all realms of life. Take dating, for instance. Reasonably good-looking but less-than-magnanimous guys have been pulling attractive women for years. But how? Maybe she's got a large, slightly pointed nose. Breasts that do little to inspire. Calves like an Australian rugby player. Red hair. Market inefficiencies always manifest themselves in insecurity, that's how Billy Beane was able to pull off the coups he was able to in the nineties. If those unathletic, strangely-proportioned, high-OBP/low-BA guys had been properly evaluating themselves (which would have required the free market to at least properly value them some of the time), they wouldn't have all ended up in Oakland.

So go forth, gentlemen. Find the flaw that's depressing your dream girl's market value and pounce. We can't all be the Yankees. Fortunately, with a little help from Michael Lewis and Bennett Miller, we can at least be Brad Pitt.

An Unabashed Homage to...Uni Watch?

2009-12-02T12:27:00.009-06:00

Contributor: Wally

We at Minnfarction have stumbled upon the most garishly ornate uniforms in the history of sport. They belong to the Northland College Lumberjacks cross country team, and boy are they doosies. ("What if we combined the look of the chintziest apron imaginable with a 'ROAD WORK AHEAD' sign?"...but I digress.) Before we begin the festivities, a sole commendation is in order: the blue shorts do complement both the orange uniform top and the soulless gingerness quite well. All pics that follow were taken without the permission of the subjects (to report a violation, click here):

The "Dayrunner"

The orange and blue combo, complementary as it may be, never looks good when the blue is anything less than a royal or navy hue. This is particularly true when the blue is straight out of the Crayola 8-Count Crayon set.

We have a playing field as ugly as our uniforms. We must be Boise State.

As for the plaid...ugh. Being as Northland is located in Ashland, WI, I can only surmise that they were hedging against their athletes getting picked off by deer hunters. If you can think of another reason, we're all ears (minnfarction@gmail.com). While this may be forgivable as piping--the North Carolina Tar Heels, after all, have employed powder blue argyle side panels for years...

...Northland decided to make their's more, uh, conspicuous. Spare the orange breast plate, the entire [tank] top is orange plaid, even the back. And the piping sucks too. (Is it even "piping" when it encompasses half the fabric of the short?)

Somewhere, Richard Simmons is asphyxiating on his own vomit.

All this is quite unfortunate, especially considering their website has pictures of the boys sporting much more tasteful plain white tops, with the word "Northland" displayed humbly across the chest. Sometimes, less really is more. That's enough from us--Paul Lukas has been made aware of the situation. It's in God's hands now.

What Better Way to Separate Onesself from the Steroids Era Than to Eliminate the DH?

2009-11-30T16:22:00.016-06:00

Contributor: Bombykol

With the announcement that Bud Selig will step down as commissioner in 2012 comes hope for eradication of the designated hitter. False hope, in all likelihood, but things of this nature are fun to dream on. With that, allow me to offer up a proposal to baseball neotraditionalists everywhere.

* No DH will be employed in its traditional conception, American or National League.

** That said, the rules must be homogenized. Convincing arguments have been made (particularly by the good folks at Baseball Prospectus) that the DH not only has engendered a talent disparity between the leagues but, correspondingly, a payroll disparity as well. Quality bats are expensive, and as a direct repercussion of necessity-driven payroll augmentation American League lineups are more potent. This dramatic difference between leagues/conferences is a phenomenon that is exclusive to baseball, and it is completely ridiculous. As such, the following proposal applies to AL and NL alike.

*** Once per game, each team will be allowed to deploy a designated hitter to bat for the starting pitcher. This would not require the pitcher be removed from the contest, nor would it remove the designated hitter from being eligible to enter the game as a pinch-hitter or defensive substitute later in the game. Such an action would only be allowed for the starting pitcher, as to not significantly reduce strategy classically associated with N.L. bullpen management. Long live the double switch!

No more.

With that, I would like to submit my candidacy for the Commissionership of Major League Baseball in 2012. Now all I need to do is figure a way to become 25-30 years older before that time. And a prominent lawyer or union head. And a minority.

As a coda, Commissioner Bombykol will--if elected--be adopting the (slightly modified) Bill James proposal limiting throws over to first to one per batter, and four per inning. Any further pick-off attempts will result in an unconditional "ball" being added to the count. Additionally, time between innings will be reduced to 60 seconds, and only one mid-inning pitching change will be allowed per game. Further, this pitching change will only be allowed if the current pitcher (a) started the game, or (b) has allowed a run, or three baserunners to reach base during his outing.

Sacrifice bunts will no longer be an official statistic, and will be scored as simple put-outs. This makes more sense than the current convention, as significant statistical evidence has demonstrated that sacrifice bunts confer no advantage (except to the defense/pitcher). Also, N.O.B.s will be eliminated for all home teams, the Toronto Blue Jays will be forced to re-adopt their old insignia and color scheme, slotting will be eliminated in favor of a draftee salary scale, Ned Colletti will be forced to donate $1,000 to charity for every HR hit by Carlos Santana for the remainder of his Cleveland tenure, the Oakland Coliseum will be demolished and Milton Bradley will be barred from the competitive play.

So let it be written. So let it be done.

Call Me Ishmael

2009-11-25T19:45:00.039-06:00

Contributor: Wally

The fad of apocalyptic/post-apocalyptic movies (e.g. 2012, The Road) looks to be in full swing. But, if I may speak for White Sox fans everywhere--The Cult of Oz, if you will--we could care less. When we want to entertain frightening notions, we turn to the Sox 2009 depth chart. Which just got a little deeper. And by "deeper," I mean "fatter," as yet another superfluous bench player was added to the puzzle, gaping holes in the starting lineup be damned.

Gimmick bet of 2010: Can Jones outslug his BMI?

Andruw Jones, Kenny Williams's white whale. Or, more accurately, his second white whale; Williams always wanted Ken Griffey Jr. Finally, once Junior's skills had deteriorated enough, Williams netted him...for Danny Richar and Nick Massett. Not exactly the kind of package the M's were looking for back in Junior's heyday. Well, history has repeated itself, as it so often does on the south side of Chicago (see: Everett, Carl; Alomar, Roberto and Sandy). Kenny wanted Andruw real bad back in 2004, no surprise as the young Jones was a bona fide 50 HR threat at that point in time. Now Jones looks more like a fifty (read: .050) ISO guy; the shine is off the apple.

Alright, reality check time. Five years removed from a World Series victory, the 2010 Chicago White Sox could hypothetically field a lineup that looks like this:

C: A.J. Pierzynski
1B: Mark Kotsay
2B: Jayson Nix
3B: Mark Teahen
SS: Omar Vizquel
LF: Andruw Jones
CF: Brent Lillibridge
RF: Alex Rios

Ugh...may this day never come. For those of you that haven't been following the hot stove, one or more of these names may seem out of place. A recap the Sox's 2009 F/A acquisitions is in order...

Player I: Kotsay, a 34 year-old (come December) first baseman (and likely a communist):

'09 (BOS): 74 AB, 3 XBH, .257/.291/.324, .216 EqA, -0.5 WARP3
'09 (CWS): 113 AB, 10 XBH, .292/.349/.434, .267 EqA, 0.1 WARP3

Player II: Vizquel, a 43 year-old (come April) shortstop/second baseman who debuted the year after my birth:

'07: 513 AB, 18 2B, 51 RBI, .246/.305/.314, .226 EqA, 3.8 WARP3
'08: 266 AB, 10 2B, 24 RBI, .222/.283/.267, .196 EqA, -0.6 WARP3
'09: 177 AB, 7 2B, 17 RBI, .266/.316/.345, .238 EqA, 1.2 WARP3

Player III: Jones, a 33 year-old (come April) center fielder weighing 437 pounds:

'07: 572 AB, 27 2B, 26 HR, 83 RBI, .222/.311/.413, .251 EqA, 2.8 WARP3
'08: 209 AB, 8 2B, 3 HR, 21 RBI, .158/.256/.249, .171 EqA, -2.0 WARP3
'09: 281 AB, 18 2B, 17 HR, 43 RBI, .214/.323/.459, .259 EqA, 0.6 WARP3

***Net WARP3 for ALL THREE PLAYERS over the past THREE YEARS: 3.1 (note, that includes four seasons in the realm of the negative...)

What a haul! I feel like I'm having blood let from my abdomen.

But wait a tic...these numbers don't tell everything, do they? What about leadership, experience, gusto, balls!?!? Normally, I'd tell you that you're in the wrong place, but today I'm going to attempt to simplify things, pop-psyche style. Why? Because these relatively abstract virtues are the only things White Sox management has used to try and sell me on these signings, production be damned.

More importantly, how am I gonna do it? By labeling people with nebulous, highly arbitrary titles of course! Consider this more than just an olive branch--consider it a collection of stereotypes interspersed with mysterious acronyms...

Mark Kotsay = "Clubhouse guy"

One small statistical caveat: Should probably be left in the clubhouse, like a shower caddy or "Jugs" magazine. His last decent season on the field came five years ago, when he manned center field in Oakland. Last season, when the White Sox played him in the OF, his UZR/150 was -27.1.

Omar Vizquel = "Eager tutor"

Practically microscopic caveat: Do as I say, or rather, as I am no longer capable of doing. Even that may be too kind; Omar was never much of a hitter. Case in point: he holds a career .327 OBP with an ISO mark of .066. And he'snearly 43 years old, making him only two years younger than MarkMcLemore. And Ozzie Guillen.

Andruw Jones = "Fatty"

Tiny little Cheesy Poof of a caveat: Jumbo Jones is a one-tool power hitter who, after July 29, didn't hit a homer en route to posting a .160/.270/.210 the rest of the way. A power hitter who can't hit for power is one of the more tragic figures in nature. It's comparable to being a "one-tool" emperor penguin whose shtick is flight.

Bottom line: Mark Teahen is the White Sox best off-season pick-up, by quite a wide margin. And Mark Teahen doesn't do anything particularly well. In fact, this is a profound understatement. His defense is abhorrent at second and in the outfield--though he has showcased his versatility by being below-average at third as well--he can't run, has no power to speak of and is old enough for one to confidently say he has peaked. With Dayan Viciedo currently on the Andruw Jones diet, here's to hoping Brent Morel arrives quickly, and that his dismal minor-league OBP is less of a harbinger of things to come than his torrid AFL performance.

True, the pieces Chicago gave up for Teahen, Chris Getz and Josh Fields, have been are prime "don't let the door hit you in the ass" candidates from their early days in the show. Nevertheless, there is value in cheap contracts. That is, controlling players for multiple years at reasonable salaries has value most non-Yankee teams; in all liklihood, Getz and Fields would have given the Sox more value over the length of their contracts than Teahen will over the length of his, at less cost. While Teahen will be a subpar starter for one more year under his current deal, plus an arbitration year (in which his salary will most likely be in the 4-5 million dollar range...wayyy more than he is worth), the two newest Royals are playing for nearly league-minimum salaries. What's more, they have actual value if deployed correctly. Getz is best suited for a utility role (he is average-below-average at 2B and 3B, well below-average at short), especially one where his one above-average tool, footspeed (25/26 SB/SBA), can be utilized. Fields, on the other hand, while a defensive sieve at third, has value as a platoon bat at first base, DH or right field, as he more than holds his own against southpaws:

218 PA, 193 AB, 9 2B, 16 HR, 38 RBI, .285/.356/.580 (OPS+ 157)

That's a damn fine line for a guy who is a veritable wind farm against righties. I quite honestly wish we would have kept him; a .580 SLG is more than a mere usable piece, it is a full-blown asset, particularly given our death of proven power hitters. Assuming we don't sign a full-time DH, why did we not see the value in having Fields partake in a fluid time-share situation with Konerko, Flowers and a free agent third basemen, e.g. Joe Crede (who can no longer be counted on to play every day anyways), Bobby Crosby (ditto) or Troy Glaus (who may even be available as a NRI come spring time)...? I'm confused. Especially as doing this would allow the Sox to move Beckham to short and Ramirez to center (with Getz still manning second), thus allowing the circumnavigation of useless, no-upside signings like Andruw Jones. Additionally, this improves the D in several significant ways: Beckham goes back to his natural position, Ramirez pulls a B.J. Upton in moving off short (where he was below average), and Jones, who at best profiles as a corner OF, does not force Rios to play out of position in CF (neutralizing his defensive value). Now where did I put my uppers?

...At least this means we won't grossly overpay for Chone Figgins, right? I'd assume so. Barring a blockbuster Konerko trade (which ain't happenin'), no more "major" moves are in store for Chicago's infield...not unless one of these new pieces is moved first, also unlikely, being as they have no value whatsoever. With that in mind, may I be the first to commend Kenny Williams on a job (hopefully) done this off-season. Seriously, please stop. Even Dayton Moore thinks you're out of control.

We Have Not Gone Silent...!

2009-11-21T20:18:00.013-06:00

Contributor: Migs and Wally (alternating paragraphs)

M: I am drunk, my friends. Watching television. Particularly, a commercial starring Luke Wilson, who has become surprisingly fat since I last saw him (in "3:10 to Yuma," nonetheless). I haven't really moved since the Vikings game concluded this afternoon. Five hours ago. Complete and utter domination by the "Purple Reign." The 2009 Vikings' offense has more wrinkles than Pat Summerall's balls.

W: The '09 Vikings is the first team since the '98 Vikes that I can honestly say has the ability to immobilize me for long stretches of time. Unless you count teams that send you into fervent rages, only to leave you comatose shortly afterward. Then throw the '99-'08 Vikes, the '07 Red Sox, any team Milton Bradley is on and every single White Sox team after the year 2000, even the title winning bunch (fuck you Jurassic Carl).

M: Creationism is hilarious. Unless it's coming from the mouth of Carl Everett, at which time it becomes frightening, stupefying and infuriating at the same time. It's a profoundly strange and unsettling feeling. Like watching Carl run the bases while brainstorming the multitude of better ways his salary could have been put to use. How many people could've paid their rent for the price it took Carl to be a hoodlum asshole?

W: But we digress. Javier Vasquez, yet again (but for entirely novel reasons) has driven me to drink. And the worst part about Javy's Cy Young vote (2nd place on one ballot): it was fucking deserved. That's right, Javy posted a FIP of 2.77, besting that of Chris Carpenter by .01 in a considerably tougher division for pitchers. The same Javy Vasquez who could not win a game last September against the offensively hapless Minnesota Fairweathers. KLaw, you have outdone yourself yet again. On the other hand, Wally sir, time to admit that you were wrong about Vasquez. I'm sending you my tab.

M: I hate Jon Heyman. For reasons that should be obvious to anyone who has (1) read the previous paragraph, and (2) read anything on Jon Heyman's Twitter account, which is literally inundated with stupidity. Twitter blows.

W: Stupidity has reached epidemic proportions in America. I propose succession of a colony of enlightened individuals; may I also suggest we use Maine as a geographic locale. Why? Lobster, of course. Lobster kicks serious ass.

M: Last weekend I met Ron Coomer (who will not be invited on the succession). This week, Mason Jennings (which was infinitely cooler than meeting Ron Coomer). I've become a magnet for minor celebrity!

W: Moving on, Fangraphs has convinced me Mike Cameron is a better free agent than Jason Bay. Wha-what? That's right kiddies! This ain't fantasy baseball. Fantasy sports blow.

W: Cameron once hit four home runs against the White Sox (three off Jim Parque, noted steroid abuser). Actually, I'm not certain "abuser" is the correct term. If Killer Cam knocks three out of the park against you, Comiskey be damned, you should seriously consider taking more steroids. Like, say, Winstrol-Stanozolol. That stuff seems like it kicks ass. If you don't mind looking freaky as shit in about five years (lookin' at you Sammy, you moisturizing motherfucker). I think I'm losing my goddamn mind. Case in point:

M: Bruce Villanch makes me want to curb stomp kittens.

W: Fat hipster. There's an oxymoron. Hey, let's talk censorship. Words that should be banned:

MOIST (Unless followed by the words chocolate cake and/or vagina)
CHUNKS (Again, allowable if preceded by chocolate)
PUSS (Chocolate puss? Puss chocolate? Uh, no.)
AFTERBIRTH (Ditto chocolate afterbirth. Yuck.)
ECOFEMINISM (Mmm...chocolate ecofeminism)

M: Words that should be promoted:

BLEBBING
wOBA
SKOL
PROCLIVITY
JAMBALAYA

Ugh. I can't believe Perkins is so far away. I'm going to go lie down on the freeway.

An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part VI (Bill Plaschke and the English language go together like feminists and subtlety)

2009-11-04T14:12:00.022-06:00

Contributor: Wally

After the Twins and Cardinals went out with nary a whimper in round one (along with our adopted and adored Colorado Rockies), Midwest baseball fans were officially resigned to bandwagon jumping for the duration of the '09 season. What's more, with the final four teams hailing from New York, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Anaheim, many of us at the Alliance have paid as much attention to the peerlessly engrossing Arizona Fall League as we have to the World Series. Here to fill us in on the Phillies NLCS drubbing of the Dodgers (the 'Ticklefight in Tinseltown, if you will) is the LA Times' resident guru of overwrought, flowery self-indulgence. What follows are samplings from the annals of Plaschke:

OCTOBER 17, 2009

Destiny is not always about a fireworks show. Destiny is sometimes about a fight.

When, pray tell, is destiny about a fireworks show? Or, for that matter, a fight? And what in sweet hell does it even mean for destiny to be "about" something? This is complete and utter nonsense. Linguistic auto-fellatio even, masturbatory pontification masquerading as journalistic insight. Ugh. Additionally, this column was written to affirm Los Angeles' "team of destiny" status, a cliche so hackneyed that any team christened with it should be immediately doomed to defeat by the Baseball Gods. How felicitous the Dodgers were smitten. Next column!

OCTOBER 22, 2009

Nowhere, fast. So describes the journey of the 2009 Dodgers, which ended Wednesday in a recognizably battered heap in the darkest part of a familiar dead end.

There has to be a better way of saying that; there just has to be. Howabout this: 'For the second year in a row, Philadelphia represents theend of the line for the languid Los Angeles Dodgers, who have falleninto an alarming rut.' Better, right? That took six-and-a-halfseconds.

As for LA: that's karma, bitch. Don't act like this it's novel. Winter, 1997. Roger Clemens spurns the Red Sox and signs with the Blue Jays. The Baseball Gods are, of course, pleased (thou shalt fuck Boston), and they orchestrate Jose Canseco's arrival in Toronto. The two hit it off, bing-bang-boom: consecutive Cy Young's. Karma. Kirby Puckett, on the other hand, convinces everyone he's one of the game's true "good guys," while spending nights and off-days going all Steve Phillips on bitches. Well Kirby, you can't hide from the Baseball Gods. Enter Dennis Martinez, "El Presidente," the reckoner. POW! Lights out. Karma.

(By the way, I know Clemens signed in '97 and Canseco in '98, a year after the Rocket's forth Cy Young. And I know that this puts my argument in rather firm discord with the basic facets of chronology. But seeing as no other world religion appears concerned with factual congruity, I think I'll just leave it.)

Again it was the Philadelphia Phillies dancing on the grass. Again, it was the Dodgers staring from the dugout. Again, it was three wins and three light years from a World Series.

Again it was the readers straining to parse out coherent thoughts from Plaschke's preposterous sentence/paragraphs (*note: average paragraph length in a Bill Plaschke column: 1.002538 sentences).

Out on the Citizens Bank Field, the Phillies were bubbly wet and giddily swaggering after a 10-4 pounding.

I entered "bubbly wet" into my search bar, just to see what happened. A sampling of the returns:

Fartsinajar.net (no comment)
Babycenter.com's page on 'pyloric stenosis' ("All babies spit up--in a bubbly, wet-burp way. Forceful or projectile vomiting...")
Chicago.backpage listing for 'Super bubbly and wet Italian and Spanish mix' ("...ready to please you right now!" I bet.)
Urban dictionary entry for "wet dump" (again, no comment)
Acid reflux board index: "Why do I have so much phlegm?" (ditto)

Yet this wouldn't be Plaschkeland if blame were not arbitrarily assigned to a key lineup cog that produced substandard superficial statistics (i.e. batting average) over an inconsequentially small sample size (i.e. five games). Nevermind that Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Casey Blake and Ronnie Belliard all posted OPS's under .690 in both the LCS and the playoffs as a whole; Manny (.792 playoff OPS), you got some splainin' to do.

Ramirez hit .263 this series with one extra-base hit and countless blown opportunities, and talk about faith.

Not sure how faith entered the discussion, but hey, that's Plaschke. The man's not afraid to keep his readership on their toes with a malapropos verbal hedge every few sentences.

The Dodgers must spend the winter praying that Ramirez relearns to hit with an untainted body.

Boom! Just when you'd begun to suspect this "column" was actually a list of characteristically puerile tweats from Tim McCarver, Plaschke serves up a little continuity between sentences. Get it? Faith...prayer! Now the previous sentence almost makes sense.

(In all fairness, the sentences themselves are less nonsensical than we've come to expect from Bill. Unfortunately, they're ass-backwards, which is straight from Bill Plaschke's SentenceFuck: A Beatwriter's Guide to Histrionics. How about this: "blah blah blah must spend the winter praying blah blah blah...talk about faith!" More coherent, right? That took 1.2 seconds.)

To his point, I'm sure sentiments on the vitality of Manny's aging, nonsteroidal body are echoed by much of Tinseltown. But Ramirez's OPS numbers in the three full months following his reinstatement read .931, .881, .892. Remember Ryan Howard, Bill, the Subway-slangin' behemoth you've written so glowingly about in the past? He had a .931 OPS in 2009, up from an .882 showing in '08. And what about Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth--the heart of the Phillies lineup--fresh off a defacing the LA pitching staff? .905, .899 and .875 OPS's, respectively. Perhaps Plaschke should spend his offseason pondering the rather spectacular aberration that was the 37 year-old Ramirez's 1.232 OPS in 2008 (222 PA's), as this was 200 points higher than ManRam's career average, and over 100 OPS points higher than Albert Pujols has managed in any one season. A .900 OPS is damn good for a soon-to-be 38 year-old; no other Dodger managed even an .870 clip in '09. What's more, this wasn't terribly difficult to foresee: Manny's OPS offerings during his final two seasons in Boston were "only" .881 and .927. We all know that Manny B. Manny is the favored punching bag of Bill Plaschke...still, there have to be others to blame, right? RIGHT?!? You bet your ass there are...let me take you back a few days. Next column!

OCTOBER 19, 2009

For the Dodgers to fufill [their] promise, the first bit of education must occur in the front office, which needs to realize something that everyone from here to Nicaragua now understands. They need an ace, or they will continue to be NLCS jokers.

Get it? Because Vicente Padilla is Nicaraguan! And he embarrassed himself and his countrymen by going 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP in the postseason (wait, que?), before returning to his homeland and sustaining a gunshot wound to the leg. (By the way, that last thing is true.)

The fact that they had to start castoff Vicente Padilla in Wednesday's critical game makes one sort of statement. The fact that Padilla was a complete wreck, giving up six runs in three innings, just confirms that statement.

Padilla had gone 4-0 with a 130 ERA+ in seven regular season starts with the Dodgers, logging 8.7 SO/9 (while walking only 2.7). In the 14.1 postseason innings he pitched coming into game five, Padilla had given up eight hits, culminating in a grand total of one earned run (a Ryan Howard solo homer). How was Joe Torre forced to start Vicente Padilla? That's like saying James Lipton was forced to pop a trouser-ripping erection during the critic's screening of There Will Be Blood. Rather, Torre was compelled to start Padilla, most-likely overwhelmingly so, by a deep-seated preference for shitty veterans. If the history of Torre has taught us anything, it's that his Achilles heel is an over-reliance on mediocre journeymen (see: Pierre, Juan, '08), often in lieu of uber-talented young enigmas (see: Kemp, Matt, '08). Enter Clayton Kershaw. After an admittedly rough game one start, Torre could have thrown Kershaw on five days rest for game five, yet on the basis of a shaky game one performance, he had been exiled from the rotation. If you want to criticize a decision, start there. Or question the thought process behind awarding Hiroki Kuroda the game three start, bumping Randy Wolf to game four and effectively squelching any chance he had of starting multiple games in the series. Obviously this is an easy move to lambaste in retrospect, as Kuroda turned in a Don Larson performance in that lone postseason start (that's Don Larson circa 2009, two months after his eightieth birthday). And there is logic to pitching a right-hander against a heavily left-handed Phillies lineup, though Ryan Howard's performance may have single-handedly justified throwing a southpaw. But Wolf was the Dodgers most consistent pitcher over the course of the regular season (214.1 IP, 1.10 WHIP, 129 ERA+), and their second most effective starter behind Kershaw.

On a blustery night featuring timid Dodgers offerings and furious Phillies hacks amid an angry stadium awash in blue blood, you know what I would have liked to see?

Certain arctic fish have antifreeze glycoproteins in their blood, rendering their plasma a rather brilliant cyan. I would like to see a liter of it dumped on Plaschke's keyboard every time a potential metaphor enters his maundering little mind. Not an act of malice, just a visual reminder that he is a pompous, rambling boob.

I would have liked to see those Dodgers prospects whom they liked more than Cliff Lee. Who are those guys? Where are those guys? They needed to be here, and we needed to see why.

I assume Plaschke is referring to the only rumor linking Cliff Lee to the Dodgers that I was able to find: a July Ken Rosenthal report stating that the Dodgers were looking to deal a package including James Loney and either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley for Lee and Victor Martinez. So the Dodgers didn't pull the trigger because of some kind of morose, misguided fascination with James Loney? And where are these prospects you speak so ambiguously of? Oh, you made them up so that you wouldn't have to reconcile your asinine point with Loney's .353/.421/.706 NLCS line? While it is reasonable to conclude prospects would need to be included for this package to entice (seriously, James Loney?), the fact of the matter is no prospects were mentioned in the Lee-to-the-Dodgers rumor. And Cleveland is not trading their two best players for established, vanilla major leaguers; trades like this just don't happen. Mark Shapiro knows his team is going into rebuilding mode. As such, they need high-upside young talent, not predictably mediocre veterans who will be over thirty years old by the time the Tribe can reasonably expect to compete. Perhaps a relative youngster like Billingsley makes sense, but only when packaged with an 'elite' double or triple-A prospect such as Ivan Dejesus, Scott Elbert, Andrew Lambo (who has struggled this season), James McDonald (ditto as a ML starter), or Ethan Martin, plus some combination of lower-level minor league talent.

That's all. Or, as Bill Plaschke would say, "On a cold Wednesday afternoon, littered with incongruent thoughts and the smell of hope rising with the refreshing vitality that merely three days left until the weekend can infuse...dumpster babies."

An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part V (Return of the Jonesys!)

2009-11-01T22:57:00.001-06:00

Contributor: Wally

Alright all you dreamers and creamers out there, it's time for the 2009 Jonesys, featuring Minnfarction fav "cardiac" Todd Jones, the sheriff of contemporary Christian entrance music! In the spirit of redemption, Jones starts off the column by fessing up to a pretty shitty prediction he made back in April, that Frankie Liriano (5-13, 5.80 ERA) would win the '09 American League Cy Young Award. "Boy was I wrong," Jones admits with the aw-shucks nonchalance of someone for can listen to MercyMe without entertaining sociopathic thoughts. No, looks like the Cy will be headed somewhere else in the American League Central...to Detroit! Wait, what? Evidently Zach Greinke's 203 ERA+ isn't enough to vault him ahead of Verlander (132 ERA+), who just "[couldn't have] come up bigger in his final two starts of the regular season."

Verlander's last two starts: 15.2 IP, 7 ER
Greinke's last seven starts: 48.0 IP, 6 ER

Not exactly a convincing start for the sheriff, but if Todd Jones would've been pulled every time he loaded the bases with less than two out, we'd have to strike a good number of those 319 career saves from the record book. Plus, we all deserve our fair shot at redemption...

Best Trend: The death of the OPS fascination and the rebirth of going with guys who just flat-out play.

Y'know, real men like Willie Bloomquist, the ultimate multi-positional grinder. The man grinds so hard, all he has is nubs where his appendages should be. Arte Moreno didn't even mind him grinding his 19 year-old wife Carole during the Angels ALDS celebration, despite the fact that Bloomquist plays for the Royals. That's just how he operates...he even grinds street organs in his spare time.

In response to sheriff Jonsey, let me offer one small critique. Despite what the stubbliest of real men may believe, OPS is not the pinnacle of sabermetric achievement; it is a crude analytical tool at best. And its pervasiveness in mainstream sports journalism (and the occasional telecast) does not represent any kind of radical, revelatory movement, as would be implied by Jones' assertion: "the days of trying to reinvent the wheel are on hold." Think of it more like a compromise between intelligent baseball analysis and curmudgeonly old-schoolish batting average dependence. The minute I hear Joe Buck drop a wOBA or EqA on us, I'll write a thousand word treatise on why I have been, and remain a jackass. But seriously Jonesy, "reinventing the wheel?" The two basic tenets of an OPS evaluation are (1) getting on base, and (2) hitting with power...not exactly avant-garde concepts in the realm of baseball thinktankeries. In fact, strip a player of these abilities and you're left with...Willie Bloomquist.

Biggest Suprise: The Rockies

"They went all 1980 U.S. hockey team on us," Jones claims. Again, a small nugget of constructive criticism is called for: this is staggeringly stupid. The only similarity between the 2009 Colorado Rockies and the "Miracle on Ice" squad is that they both trained in CO. Oh, and each team had a player with the surname of Baker; Jeff and Bill, respectively (strangely enough, Bill went on to play defenseman for the 1981 Colorado Rockies ice hockey club, now the New Jersey Devils). But that's about it. The U.S. Olympic hockey team was a group of amateur no-names led by a legendary coach (Herb Brooks) who improbably overcame the juggernaut Soviet Union team before defeating Finland for the Gold. The Colorado Rockies, on the other hand, were a relatively recognizable group of professionals (led by $16.6 million-man Todd Helton) who won the prestigious National League wild card over the San Fransisco Giants (they of a .257/.309/.389 offensive output). Following this resounding victory, Rocktober was swiftly derailed by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, who prevailed three games to one.

As for their coach, Jim Tracy is a virtual lock to win NL Manager of the Year. He did, after all, post a 74-42 record following the firing of 2007 NL M.O.Y. second-runner-up Jimmy Buffett. That said, manager is a vastly overrated position, trailing only Ryder Cup captainship and 'being Ned Colletti' in terms of sporting overratedness. Tracy's sterling record in 2009 has as much to do with his managerial ability as did his 135-189 stint with Pittsburgh several years ago: not much. Players decide the games; managers only have two real jobs. The first is managing arms, which most skippers regularly fuck up with intransigent pitch counts, a stubborn instance on using closers exclusively in the ninth inning and overly-active situational mixing and matching. The second is putting their team in the best possible position to score runs, which most also fuck up by unnecessary sacrifice bunting and traditionalist lineup structuring that awards inferior hitters with more PA's (god forbid Joe Mauer should hit in the two-hole over Alexi Casilla).

Best Story: Derek Jeter (breaking Lou Gerhig's record for hits by a Yankee)

In his final AB of the season, Ken Griffey Jr. spanked hit number 2,747 up the gut. Junior was lifted for a pinch runner, but following the game he took a lap around the field before being hoisted on his teammates' shoulders and carried into the dugout. All in all, a pretty cool exit (should he choose to accept it) for a man that has meant a lot to the game of baseball.

Jeter's run at Gerhig, while interesting due to the fact that the Yanks hit king has less than 3,000 hits, saw him vault ahead of Dave Parker, Bill Buckner and Rusty Staub (Le Grand Orange). Blown away? Probably not, because this record is more surprising than it is impressive. Jeter still ranks 'only' 49th on the all-time hits list, trailing such immortals as Vada Pinson and Harold Baines. Dare I ask, was The Captain's 2,722nd hit really that big a deal? I've written at length about Jonsey's rather robust boner over Jeter (see "An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part III: I Would Gladly Tickle Derek Jeter's Balls as He Fucks My Girlfriend"), so I'll just leave this one to fester. Moving on...

Breakout Performer: Hanley Ramirez

Let's play a little game. Which of the following seasons constitutes the most breakout-ish of potential breakout seasons?

(a) .301/.400/.540, 125 R, 92 BB, 34 2B, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB
(b) .332/.386/.562, 212 H, 125 R, 48 2B, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 51 SB
(c) .292/.353/.480, 185 H, 119 R, 46 2B, 11 3B, 17 HR, 51 SB
(d) .342/.410/.543, 197 H, 101 R, 42 2B, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB

OK, I admit that was a dumb fucking question. The reason is that a "breakout" season is context-dependent; Albert Pujols just enjoyed arguably his finest season, yet no one is advocating that he has finally 'broken out.' Thus, the answer to aforementioned nonsensical question is, "whatever came first" (c, in this case, having occurred in 2006). Being as this was his statistically-weakest season, we could conceivably justify calling 2007 (b) his breakout, a damn fine choice, being as this was the first in a line of three consecutive seasons in which his OPS+ exceeded 140 (145, 146, 151). (*Fyi, (a) = 2008, (d) = 2009.) True, 2009 Hanley did set career highs in BA (by ten points), OBP (also by ten points) and SLG (by negative nineteen points); that said, how was this season anything but business as usual for HanRam? Put differently, how can one argue that a player who has posted WARP3's of 8.3, 9.2 and 7.8 the past three years "broke out" in year three? That's kinda like saying that The Doors 'broke out' with "The Soft Parade," Harrison Ford 'broke out' in "Temple of Doom," or Tim Tebow is 'breaking out' in '09 (excluding backne considerations from rampant steroid abuse).

Biggest Disappointment: The Royals

I was very disappointed with the presidential campaign of Cynthia McKinney. Apparently starring in American Blackout gets you all of 0.12% of the vote, and 30,000 less tallies than a man who views homosexuality as a moral perversion and regards Martin Luther King Jr. as a communist. But back to the Royals...giddyup Jonsey: "I really thought they'd be better. They have good parts, they're just missing something." I totally agree, if by "they have good parts" you mean, their roster is a cataclysmic abyss from which no light or heat can escape, and by "missing something" you mean missing a catcher, shortstop, third baseman, power-hitting corner outfielder, first baseman (so Billy Butler can DH), three starting pitchers, multiple bullpen arms and a competent GM. The Royals had five good pieces in 2009; Greinke, Joakim Soria, Robinson Tejada, Butler and Alberto Callaspo. None of their other pitchers have VORP's above ten, and none of their other hitters have OBP's greater than .340 (in fact, THREE regulars--Olivo, Betancourt, Jacobs--finished the season below .300). With an FIP of 2.33, Greinke would have won approximately 37 games if Moore could've fielded a lineup of nine Oscar Salazars. According to my calculations.

They Deserve Better (2010 Season): Minnesota Twins Fans

"They will freeze outside in April and September. Bad decision not to get a retractable roof. Good luck." First of all, I'm pretty sure the retractable roof idea came up in discussions, and...secondly, well, you know, with global warming and all...and the irrefutable effects of urban heat islands, um...I mean, if you can somehow swap out the majority of your blood plasma with beer, then I guess you could trick yourself into...maybe, y'know...

Aw, nevermind. Maybe we'll be warm when Selig moves our first snowed-out weekender to Miller Park. Other than that, we're probably fucked. Skol Vikings.

Black Uhuru, Black Panther, Black Jesus...Black Taco

2009-10-25T20:50:00.002-05:00

Contributor(s): Wally

Minnfarction...back in black, party people (or rather, white). Since our last post (a staunch avocation for Pedro Martinez's closer candidacy), many an event has transpired. Some have been humorous, such as Delmon Young's late-season pummeling of Kansas City (10 RBI in three games, prompting certain enlightened members of the national media to declare it "revelatory"). Others have been confusing, such as Brad Lidge appearing not only on Philadelphia's NLDS roster, but in games as well (and pitching reasonably well). A few even consorted to compel me to flee the continental United States, though I made it no farther than coastal Oregon before returning to lovely Minnesota.

Regardless, the forced exodus for "tastelessly" referencing Gary Busey's limp, lifeless penis is no more. Though we have been permanently banned from our former host server, we're loving the new digs, and--with a little luck--we'll be brashly imposing our opinions on entirely new demographics in no time. If you'll have us, that is.

Think it over...Love, Wally, Bombykol, Seamus, Migs and Athos

(In other news, has any catcher had more trouble with counting than Jorge Posada? It's replaced hitting lefties, throwing out baserunners and being a gigantic pussy as his Achilles heel...)

Cardinal Sin: Should the Red Birds Already be Regretting the DeRosa Deal?

2009-07-24T01:16:00.019-05:00

Contributor: Seamus

Trade deadline week is upon us, and I have but one question. Is it fair to laud one deal, while retroactively panning another, knowing that the lack of early returns from the former likely led directly led to the consummation of the latter? The answer is probably 'no,' regardless, the fact remains that the Cardinals have gutted their farm system in recent weeks, parting with five of their top 10-12 prospects in order to snag Mark DeRosa from Cleveland and Matt Holliday from Oakland. What's more, these moves could be considered highly redundant given the resources at St. Louis' disposal. Although the ultimate success of each deal will not be known for some time (years in Cleveland and Oakland's cases, several months in St. Louis'), an early assessment smiles on the Holliday swap for the Cards, while frowning heavily on the DeRosa prospect heist. What follows are comments on the five ex-Cardinals prospects recently shipped out of town:

* To Cleveland, for Mark DeRosa:

Chris Perez (STL): 1-1, 4.94 ERA, 11.03 SO/9 over 31 IP, WHIP 1.29

A brazenly cocky kid with a heavy 95-98 mph heater and a biting, low-eighties slider, Perez should continue to yield BAA numbers in the sub-.220 range for years to come. Already in the majors, Perez thus represents a superb pickup for the relief-starved Indians, and a particularly painful loss for the Cardinals, who seem to have forgotten the first eleven years of Ryan Franklin's career. Though Perez cannot effectively command his off-speed repertoire (yet)--characteristic of many young fireballers who were able to ride an unhittable fastball through the minor league ranks--he has the look of a future closer, and could've been the Cardinals #1 fireman come October.

Jess Todd (AAA): 4-2, 2.20 ERA, 59 SO/13 BB in 49.0 IP (10.84 SO/9 vs. 2.39 BB/9), WHIP 1.06, 24 SV

The Cardinals had to be hoping that Todd wasn't the player-to-be-named-later in the DeRosa deal...but they also had to be expecting it. An extremely refined Arkansas product, Todd is not capable of overpowering hitters to the degree that Perez is, but he is light years ahead of Perez with his command. A starter in the minor leagues, Todd projects most favorably as a bullpen arm in the major leagues; a solid 5'11", 210 pounder, he is the kind of relief-ace that could give a team two or three solid innings in a close game if any manager were audacious enough to use him as such. Featuring a low-to-mid nineties sinking fastball, a cutter and a sharp slider, all of which he can locate on either side of the plate, Todd may well become the best arm included in this deal. What's more, he too could likely have helped the Cardinal's bullpen this year (despite a rough debut), especially if he continues to show progress in commanding a rapidly developing change, the only thing that delayed his promotion for three months.

** To Oakland, for Matt Holliday:

Brett Wallace (AA/AAA): .289/.367/.427, 103 H, 27 XBH (16 HR), 35 RBI, 45 R

An extremely balanced hitter with a level swing and a superior eye, Wallace has the uncanny ability to square up almost anything and, in the process, spray line drives all over the field. Although this has not yet led to lofty home run numbers, and likely never will if he remains in Oakland, Wallace still projects as a solid middle-of-the order bat, one that can produce oodles of doubles as well as high batting and on-base averages. He is thus of the same ilk as former-Athletic's 1B Scott Hatteberg, who could represent a reasonable statistical approximation for a young Wallace (though I expect the two-time PAC-10 triple crown winner to display greater power production at some point). Defensively, Wallace is startlingly adequate, despite some of the girthiest thighs you will ever find at the hot corner. (*side note: A pillar of "Moneyball" is the identification of players who--because of their physique, or some other attributes extraneous to pure baseball skill--have had their finer qualities as a ballplayer obscured in the eyes of scouts and executives. In essence, it is the ongoing search for Brett Wallaces of one type or another. This made it all the more shocking when Billy Beane passed on Wallace in last year's draft, opting instead for “toolsy” Miami 2B Jemile Weeks (Wallace would go with the next pick, #13 overall, to St. Louis). Now that order has been restored and Beane has his man, a shift to 1B is imminent, and an ascension to moneyball posterboy is overwhelmingly likely, particularly if Wallace can return the A's to their winning ways and--in doing so--restore Beane's tarnished "genius" status.)

Clayton Mortensen (AAA): 7-6, 4.37 ERA, 7.03 K/9 vs. 2.91 BB/9 in 105 IP, 1.30 WHIP

Featuring a sinking low-nineties fastball that is death to right-handed hitters, this 2007 sandwich pick was an interesting inclusion from the A's perspective. Though Mortensen struggled mightily against lefties last season (.354 BAA), improved command (particularly of his circle change) has alleviated some of these concerns; Mortensen thus appears ready to step into a big league rotation, or at least to step into a bullpen as a righty specialist or mop-up man. Neither of these areas is an Oakland "need," in fact the A's are bubbling over with big-league ready arms. As such, it would've seemed more prudent to go after a higher-ceiling prospect farther down the developmental ladder, perhaps still in single-A. Unless Mortensen turns a major corner, and there is little evidence to indicate he will, he projects as a back-of-the-rotation groundball specialist with a disturbing penchant for giving up big flies. Oakland already features four rookies in their rotation: Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazarro and Gio Gonzalez; with Justin Duchsherer set to return soon, this is more-or-less a rotation in itself. Even in the increasingly likely case that Gonzalez does not pan out, it would not be difficult to complete an effective big league staff with one member of the their stable of youthful veterans, Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland and possibly even Faustino de los Santos, should he successfully rebound from TJ surgery. Given this assemblage, and even with the possibility of further trades involving Duchsherer, Eveland and/or Braden, where is the need for Mortensen? It would seem that he would be of much greater value to St. Louis, making his inclusion a quite peculiar decision on both ends.

Shane Peterson (HiA/AA): .293/.357/.420, 108 H, 28 XBH (16 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR), 47 RBI, 43 R, 12 SB in 13 A

Another prospect who has elicited a variety of opinions, Peterson has impressed many by reaching double-A in his first full professional season, though concerns about his defense and his "front-foot hitting style" have led to tempered optimism amongst many scouts as well. A below-average runner whose base-stealing prowess is likely a facade, Peterson has the frame of a power-hitter at the next level, and has shown enough in his first pro season to suggest he has at least a Jason Michaels-esque future to look forward to. While this is certainly not All-Star caliber production, it is periodic productivity given the right situation. That is, more times than not his performance will warrant a starting position, or at least a platoon gig, at the big-league level. That said, I personally have no problem with his inclusion in the deal, as the Cardinals have no shortage of outfield bats, and Peterson is widely considered the "fringiest" prospect on this list.

*** The science of prognostication is--in actuality--anything but; it's a crapshoot at best. Still, these are not 17 year-old signings out of the Dominican Republic we're talking about...of the five prospects in the two deals, three of them have already sniffed big-league action, and another (Wallace) is primed for a September call-up. These are players with extensive college and minor league track records, already knocking down the proverbial big league door. As such, the act of projecting their performances becomes a considerably more-accurate affair.

Mark DeRosa appears to be heating up, posting hits (including a homer) in a three-game weekender with the Phils. Additionally, he gives the Cardinals a degree of versatility they previously lacked, as he can adequately fill in at first, second, third or either corner outfield position (though he is only a modest upgrade over Skip Schumaker, offensively or defensively, despite Schumaker grading out as the major's worst defensive 2B by UZR). Additionally, with the coaching staff seemingly intent on letting Rick Ankiel hit his way through his season-long slump, this leaves the Cardinals with more-than-enough outfielders to relegate DeRosa to exclusive infield duty (see: Holliday, Ludwick, Rasmus, Ankiel, Glaus[?]). In a perfect world, where DeRosa remained an adequate defensive second baseman and Glaus could return to regular duty at third, the odd men out would be Ankiel (with Schumaker assuming 4th OF responsibilities) and current-3B Joe Thurston; in actuality, the Cards might have to settle for DeRosa booting the abhorrently ineffective Thurston to the waiver wire, while Schumaker continues to do his Chuck Knoblauch thing at second. This leaves Ankiel as the forth outfielder, with a gimpy Glaus assuming pinch-hitting responsibilities, or possibly DH'ing should the opportunity present itself.

So is an upgrade from Thurston to DeRosa worth the hefty price of Perez and Todd? Thurston has certainly held up his end, grading out as one of the very worst regulars in the national league. He also makes a convincing argument for the dubious distinction of "biggest hole in a contender's lineup," as attested by a .229 BA and .669 OPS (though he has his work cut out for him if he wishes to catch Emilio Bonafacio or any of the Twins' middle infield contingent). Either way, the frightening possibility remains that Thurston will simply scoot over, taking AB's away from Schumaker as his backup at second; Cardinal fans should pray this responsibility falls instead to Julio Lugo, who--for all his defensive shortcomings at the keystone--remains a productive middle-IF bat. Assuming DeRosa effectively purges the Cards lineup of Thurston, his healthy .807 OPS (17 HR) should be worth a win or two going forward, not a bad investment in a tight N.L. Central race. However, the Cardinals bullpen, featuring Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller and Dennys "The Big Sweat" Reyes, will also be tested down the stretch, and they're going to need more innings than those four arms can provide going forward (especially with La Rusa's well-known penchant for frequent pitching changes). This presents a problem, as Jason Motte (5.70 ERA) has been less-than-inspiring, youngster Blake Hawksworth was hit extremely hard in his last appearance (vs. PHI), and the 36 year-old Franklin (career 4.10 ERA) is unlikely to continue his Mo Rivera act all season.

So will the extra offensive production provided by DeRosa (above that expected from Thurston, Glaus and/or Khalil Greene) be enough to offset the subtraction of Perez and Todd from an unproven 'pen? My early guess would by no; the Cardinals would have been better off holding onto the arms, mixing and matching Ryan, Greene, Lugo and Schumaker (at second, short and third), and waiting for Glaus to return. The Cardinals guessed differently, or perhaps did not view the acquisition of Holliday as realistic at the time of the DeRosa move. Either way, whether this move will be viewed as shrewd success or crippling miscalculation will be determined, at least in-part, by the happenings of the next two months...let's sit back and let the dog days sort it out.

I Think Leon Kass May Have Just Made an Insightful Observation...

2009-07-22T18:22:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Migs

Nevermind.

To All You Royals Fans Out There, Dayton Moore Would Like to Say, "Go Fuck Yourselves"

2009-07-17T21:48:00.003-05:00

Contributor: Wally

Moving on...Dayton Moore is at it again. For those of you who thought he couldn't top the Mike Jacobs trade (in which he surrendered Leo Nunez, now a candidate for the Marlin's closer position), enter Yuniesky Betancourt.

I would have really liked to rail on this move, but I was stripped of any incentive after Joe Posanski, brilliant columnist for the KC Star, spent about 9,000 words doing it better than I ever could have. Here are some of the highlights, Joe Po italicized:

"A few years ago, the Royals traded Jermaine Dye for Yuniesky-comp Neifi Perez. Now, that trade was an absolute disaster — the worst in team history in my opinion — but there was this indisputable line of reasoning. The Royals felt like they did not have a shortstop ready to play in the big leagues. This is a powerful problem: When you play baseball, you must have a shortstop … otherwise teams will laugh at you. Yes, true, they will laugh at you if you have Neifi Perez at shortstop too, but they’ll laugh at you more if you don’t have a shortstop at all."

And if you field a team that includes Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, Mike Jacobs, Jose Guillen, Miggy Olivo and one of the Luis Hernandez/Tony Pena Jr. contingent, opposing teams run the risk of shitting themselves before they take the field.

Let me preface this next one by saying that Yuniesky's last two UZR's (2008, 2009) were: -12.6, -8.3, his Dewan Plus/Minus: -19/-13...Joe Po, GO!!!

"Yuniesky Betancourt is--by these numbers--a LEGENDARILY BAD defensive shortstop. No, really, legendarily, like in 300 years kids will be sitting around campfires singing about how bad a shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt was."

Wow. I had always assumed, as Joe Po and many others no doubt had, that Yunieksy was an above-average ML shortstop. I'd seen a number of highlight reel plays (always to his backhand side, allowing him to flaunt a cannon arm from shallow left field) and he seemed to fit the stereotype of the no-bat, defensive-minded SS. Perhaps most importantly, I haven't seen a whole lot of M's baseball the last couple of years. Thankfully.

"The Royals have now acquired four — count them FOUR — players off the 2005 Seattle Mariners. They’ve got Meche, Bloomquist, Miguel Olivo and Betancourt. It’s like they are trying to rebuild that 69-93 team brick-by-brick. Call Richie Sexson’s agent!"

Well said, sir. By the way, the roster of the '05 M's also included--at one time or another--Ichiro, Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre, Randy Winn, Jamie Moyer, Joel Piniero, Ryan Franklin, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, Eddie Guardado, Rafael Soriano, George Sherill, Jose Lopez, Shin-Soo Choo, Yorvit Torrealba and Felix Hernandez. All of these players, at one point or another, have either (a) played at an All-Star calliber level or (b) played at a high enough level [superficially] to fool an All-Star manager into giving them a place on an All-Star team. All of this is, at least in part, a testament to the ability of the '05 M's front office to identify talent...they had a ton of it, and even turned some of it into useful pieces (for example, Sherill was included in the Bedard trade, though All-Star CF Adam Jones and Future's Game starter Chris Tillman were also surrendered). Think we're gonna be able to throw around such accolades looking back at the '09 Royals team?

In other news, the Red Sox cut ties with a far superior player today, Julio Lugo, he of a perplexing -43.2 UZR. (That's negative, folks. And while astute observers will point out that this is an anomaly attributable to a small sample size, it is nevertheless an abominable performance over any period.) In a phone conversation with Steve Buckley, Lugo explained his predicament: "When you see a good looking girl, you get married and sometimes things don't work out. I gave it my best and unfortunately things didn't work out." Fellas, I know you can't wait to marry every good-looking girl that comes into your life...right? Well don't, dipshits, or you could end up with the marriage equivalent of a .284/.352/.367 line, undoubtedly grounds for divorce in 2009 American culture.

Is Alfonso Soriano's the Worst Contract in Baseball? (Popping the proverbial Zito of common knowledge on bad deals)

2009-07-16T09:30:00.000-05:00

Contributor: Bombykol

Alfonso Soriano's current contract runs 8 years and will pay him $136 million...no kidding. To you non-Cubs fans out there who want to understand what it feels like to have such an albatross on your roster, try repeatedly slamming your testicles with a car door. While staggering at first glance, Soriano's contract was not an isolated faux pas in an otherwise discriminating environment. Riding the coat-tails of a season that shattered the previous MLB attendance record, the free-agent market of 2006 was both rabid and ridiculously detatched from any reasonable method of player valuation. And not just for perceived "stars," either; in the two-year period from '06 to '07, $140 million dollars worth of contracts were handed out to the immortal trifecta of Gary Matthews Jr, Jeff Suppan and Carlos Silva. These players have contributed a combined -0.7 WARP in 2009, not exactly bang for one's buck. All the more shocking, in a world where Kei Igawa is still owed half of his $46 million dollar contract (he was signed for 5 years in December of '06), Soriano's deal may soon stand out as the worst in the sport. Though many Cubs fans have been disappointed with Soriano's lackluster production during his time with the club, no. 12 has still managed to put up decent numbers, while "leading" his clubs to N.L. Central crowns of the past two seasons. But now, with Soriano mired in a season-long slump that has seen him--amongst other things--abandon base-stealing, even the most optimistic of bleacher creatures has to be growing concerned about the future. How's Soriano's $18 million annually going to look after next season, if he continues to post WARP's south of 2.0? Or in 2014, when the Cubs will be paying as much as 15-20% of their total payroll to the thrity-eight year old? Is Soriano's decline merely a prolonged statistical aberration, augmented by the stunning extent of his struggles and exacerbated by the neurotic hysteria of his home market? Or are these the symptoms of physical deterioration, early signs of an apocalyptic degradation in both ability and production for the Cubbie's cornerstone player? In short, what is Alfonso Soriano worth, and how much return can the Cubs [look forward to(?)] in the future?

Such an assessment requires an understanding of the value--namely the monetary value--of a win, an inherently difficult number to ascertain. The difficulty lies in the general lack of data available on team revenue; generally teams are operated as small trusts under private ownership, or as part of large conglomerates (such as Anheuser-Busch, STL) in which the team is merely a miniscule portion of a gigantic business. One exception, cited by Baseball Prospectus, was the Cleveland Indians, who filed financial disclosures with the SEC from 1998 to 2000. In doing so, the Tribe reported income from eight primary sources: ticket sales, local radio & television contracts, merchandise sales, MLB central fund allocation, concessions & catering revenue, postseason revenue (from 1997), private-suite & seat rental and revenue sharing. With this data, B.P.'s Nate Silver undertook the unenviable task of extending its learnings to the whole of Major League Baseball; even though Cleveland may have been a model franchise in the late-nineties, it certainly is not representative of the MLB as a whole. After all, MLB territory includes markets as fanatical and fervent as New York City, and as apathetic and indifferent as Miami; ballparks as beautiful and tantalizing as S.F.'s AT&T Park, and as decrepit and "derelict" as the H.H.H. Metrodome. Additionally, every stadium is priced differently, with a different number of luxury suites, and draws its fans from radically different populations (by per-capita income, amongst other things). Add in a plethora of social factors, past team performance, the well documented "honeymoon effect" associated with new stadiums, etc and you've got a veritable clusterfuck on your hands.

Without delving into the grizzly details of B.P.'s regression analyses (the full description is available on pages 174-196 of B.P.'s "Baseball Between the Numbers," which I would suggest you pick up anyways), and disregarding Silver's "linear model of player valuation," which downplays the observed non-linear bump in revenue a team can expect from earning a postseason bid, I would like to briefly outline the "two-tiered model of player evaluation," as it will be central to the coming discussion. Accounting for all reported revenue, and deducting revenue-sharing payments, an additional win was shown to be worth approximately $650,000, an additional playoff win, $25 million. Here's how it broke down categorically--the revenue generated by both a single regular-season win (and a single playoff appearance):

Gate receipts: $700,000 ($14,900,000)

Concessions: $215,000 ($4,500,000)

Luxury suites and club seats: $160,000 ($3,300,000)

Merchandise: $55,000 ($5,800,000)

Local broadcast rights: $0 ($14,100,000)

Playoff gate receipts: $0 ($5,800,000)

- Revenue sharing payments: $385,000 ($14,900,000)

Net: $650,000 ($25,000,000)

While these numbers are nearly a decade old, they are nonetheless useful, especially in light of how little data is actually available on the topic. However one glaring inadequacy in our methodology should be pointed out before we move one: all wins are not created equal. Using logistic regression analysis, and plotting the number of regular season wins (x) against the probability of that win total earning a team a playoff berth (y), one gets a sigmoid curve (essentially a variation of P(x)=1/(1+e^-x)). This means that a team (A) with 68 wins has virtually no shot of securing a playoff birth, a team (B) with 98 has virtually no shot of missing the playoffs, and a team (C) with 88-89 wins has essentially a 50-50 shot. Hypothetically, consider a situation where all three teams sign a free agent who provides a WARP value of 5.0 to replace a player with a WARP of 3.0. The move has essentially no value to teams A & B, as improving from 68 to 70 wins, or from 98 to 100, has virtually no bearing on the team's playoff odds; team A will still miss the playoffs in every conceivable scenario, just as team B will still be assured of a playoff berth. Team C, on the other hand, benefits immensely, as improving from 89 wins to 91 improves their playoff odds from 50% to almost 70%. Thus while teams A & B will gain approximately ~$1.0-1.2 million dollars from their free agent signing in marginal economic value ($500-600K per win), team C can expect returns upwards of $4 million...for a regular season win, nonetheless. However important this is, a teams can plan for it only to a degree; while the Cubs may have anticipated that an Alfonso Soriano-type player--coupled with a number of pitching upgrades--could vault them into contention in a weak N.L. Central, there is no way to anticipate the competitive balance of a division three, four or eight years down the line. (Although the Cubs may have won only 66 games in 2006, most recognized it as something of an anomaly, and regarded the Cubs as closer to 'team C' than 'team A.') Thus knowing that this is a long-term contract, we will evaluate it as such, disregarding marginal economic values in favor of the simple, linear valuation of a regular season win (~$650K).

Returning to the topic at hand, what does this mean for slump-ridden Alfonso Soriano, GM Jim Hendry (the man who signed off on his 8 year, $136 million contract) and the future prospects of the Chicago Cubs organization? To begin, let's return to 2004, a year that should have seen Soriano's value plummet in the wake of a [shockingly underpublicized] age scandal. Shortly after completion of the A-Rod swap, it was revealed that Soriano was 28 years old, not 26 as initially believed. The Rangers maintained that they were aware of this in advance of the trade, but as it was not grounds for voiding his new contract, whether or not this was damage control will never be known. What was known, at least by computer programs (such as PECOTA), was that this revelation sullied most of Soriano's accomplishments to date. Soriano's first extended stint in the major leagues came at age 25, not 23 as originally believed; Soriano may have evolved into a fine player just one season later, posting of WARP of 6.2, but the upside of a 26 year old is markedly different than that of a player two years younger. (Statistical savant Bill James has written that the peak years of a major league baseball player come between the ages of 25 and 29, with an absolute peak being reached at 27; he has subsequently stated that these numbers are likely over-estimations due to the increased longevities witnessed during the steroids era). In his age-26 season, PECOTA's top 5 comparisons for Soriano included Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson, Sammy Sosa, George Bell and Juan Samuel. For a 28 year-old Soriano, the names look a little different: Kelly Gruber, Gene Frese, Max Aviles, Raul Mondesi and (again) Juan Samuel. Downgrading one's comp from Banks to Mondesi is not exactly flattery, but PECOTA wasn't done: it also predicted WARP's for both a 26 and 28 year-old Soriano going forward:

2004: 5.5 v. 4.9; 2005: 4.5 v. 4.7; 2006: 4.4 v. 3.8; 2007: 4.3 v. 3.6; 2008: 3.7 v. 2.5

Examining his actual WARP performance over the same time period, Soriano has actually stacked up quite favorably (with the exception of 2005). No. 12's actual WARP's (and the difference between reality and PECOTA's projections) follow:

2004: 4.2 (-0.7), 2005: 1.9 (-2.8), 2006: 7.9 (+4.1), 2007: 6.8 (+3.2), 2008: 4.9 (+2.4)

Soriano has thus underperformed in two seasons and over-performed in three (26.2 actual WARP vs. 19.5 expected, +6.7 net), with two of those having been "legitimate" All-Star caliber efforts. While this represents a good performance when pitted against PECOTA's projections, WARP's in the 3.0-5.0 range are hardly elite; to the contrary, they are very pedestrian (for instance, Johnny Peralta averaged a 4.55 WARP between '05 and '08). This season, Arizona ace Dan Haren leads the majors in WARP-1 [the most basic incarnation of the statistic] at 14.3, and Albert Pujols has averaged a 9.4 mark over his nine-year career, while posting a 12.4 in '09. Additionally, it's hard to ignore the precipitous drop that Soriano has experienced every year following '06, including this season, where Soriano's WARP-1 is a measly 0.9, neck and neck with Angel Pagan and Matt Herges.

Following the 2009 season, Soriano's contract with Chicago will have payed out $41 million dollars. Assuming the WARP-1 Soriano has posted thus far in '09 holds, he has theoretically accounted for 12.6 additional Cubs wins over a replacement-level player (earning the league-minimum salary of $390,000) during that time period. The other half of the two-tiered model of player valuation, 'playoff appearance accounted for,' will be deduced by simply subtracting Soriano's WARP outputs from the team's overall W-L each season from '07-'09; if this adjusted W-L record places the Cubs out of the playoff picture, then Soriano will be directly credited with a playoff appearance(*).

2007 (actual): 85-77 (2.0 lead); (sans Soriano): 78-84 (5 GB)*

2008 (actual): 97-64 (7.5 lead); (sans Soriano): 92-69 (2.5 lead)

2009 (actual): 47-45 (2.0 GB); (sans Soriano): 46-46 (3 GB)

2007 is the only year our elementary analysis credits Soriano for impacting the ultimate outcome of the N.L. Central race. Thus according to the two-tiered model of player valuation, Soriano's value breaks down a follows:

2007

WARP-1: +6.8 (value: $4.420 million)

Playoff Appearance With/Without: Yes/No (value: $25 million)

*Net value: $29.485 million (return: $19.420 million))

2008

WARP-1: +4.9 (value: $3.185 million)

Playoff Appearance With/Without: Y/Y (value: $0)

*Net value: $3.185 million (return: -$10.815 million)

2009

WARP-1: +0.9 (value: $585,000)

Playoff Appearance With/Without (Projected): N/N

*Net value: $585,000 (return: -$16.415 million)

**Net value ('07-'09) [actual - "earned" salary]: $41 - $33.255 million = -$7.745 million

The two-tiered model is admittedly harsh, giving Soriano full credit for the Cubs inspired turnaround in 2007 (culminating in a playoff appearance), while awarding him zero credit for their playoff appearance in 2008. Nevertheless, this is probably fair, as an '08 Cubs team minus Soriano's contributions would've almost certainly made the playoffs in a feeble N.L. Central; Soriano missed 53 games last season anyways, and the Cubs were above .500 in those games. This relatively straightforward picture could fast become complicated however. The possibility exists that the Cubs (currently 2 GB) could end up winning the Central division by a margin less than Soriano's final WARP-1, contingent on his raising this value above one, which he will almost certainly do. In such a scenario, our assessment of his value markedly changes. Say the Cubs win the Central crown by one game over the Cardinals, who also finish 2.0 GB of the Colorado in the Wild Card chase and miss the playoffs entirely. Let us also say that during this time, Soriano doubles his WARP-1, ending the season at 1.8, a value that would currently rank him behind thoroughly underwhelming White Sox 2B Chris Getz. Under the simplistic system I have chosen to employ, Soriano would get credit for the team's playoff berth, and with it the $25 million of revenue set to come the Cubbie's way; with such a contribution, Soriano would have provided a positive net return on his three-year salary. Yet it goes without saying that a player who contributes a 1.8 WARP does not deserve such credit, as he has performed at a well below-average level that season. Concurrently, such a situation would be vastly different from 2007, in which Soriano's All-Star caliber performance propelled the Cubs team to a Central Division title, even though my analysis would assign equal monetary value to each contribution. In the interest of preserving this system and all its simplicity, a condition requiring a league-average WARP for starting position players (which should settle around +4 most years) may be needed; if the player under examination fails to reach this plateau, he would not be credited with a 'playoff appearance accounted for.' As of July 23, such a stipulation is not yet necessary, and if there is any justice in the baseball universe it will stay that way (the recently-completed Matt Holliday to St. Louis deal should help). At the very least it would save me from having to write a second blog post explaining Silver's "market price model" in a desperate attempt to preserve the legitimacy of my point.

Returning to the raw data, it's fair to say that Soriano has underperformed in his three years with Chicago (especially when factoring in his .138 playoff OBP). Still, the degree to which he has done so is not as vast as one might expect. This is almost entirely due to Soriano's boarder-line elite performance in 2007, which propelled the Cubs to a division title, albeit with a mere 85 wins. Take out the $25 million accredited to Soriano for this contribution--or divy it up amongst several key roster components--and Soriano's performance begins to look much, much worse. In actuality, Soriano has not been horrific, he has merely been average. And wildly inconsistent. And often injured. Yes, he is over-payed, but is that even unique enough to be noteworthy? Put another way, has Soriano's contract been any worse than, say, Jose Guillen's 3-year, $36 million deal with Kansas City? The numbers would say no, and they would be correct, as Guillen has thus far provided a net WARP of +0.2 in 233 games with Kansas City (a $130K value, according to our method). But one key difference remains: Soriano still has five year left after 2009, and will be owed a staggering $18 million in his age-38 season. The Royals, on the other hand, will have officially washed their hands of Guillen by next November.

Many will point out that Soriano was not signed for his contributions at age 38, he was signed for his ages 31-35 seasons with the hopes that several playoff appearances (and maybe even a championship) later, natural inflation rates of the free-agent market will make the remainder of his contract swallow-able. This is a good tactic for certain teams at certain times; consider if Roy Halladay was a free-agent this offseason--it certainly would behoove the Phillies to offer Halladay whatever length of contract he desired to get him signed. This is because the Phils are a team with a core of star players either in (Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Werth, Victorino) or just past (Rollins) their primes, along with a mature ace and a sterling bullpen. And a fast-closing window; knowing they can perform for only two-to-three more years at an elite level, they should absolutely try to make as many championship runs as they can in that time, especially considering the startling lack of competition for the N.L. pennant. As was mentioned earlier, when the Cubs signed Soriano, they were riding the septic fumes of a 66 win season--not exactly the same scenario, but if management felt it could fashion a contender while Soriano was still in the latter-part of his prime (which it did), then this argument holds some water. It would hold a hell of a lot more if the deal had been for five years; anything more than that and the Cubbies would have been better off taking a pass. Especially since Cubs management was in the position to dictate when their optimum competitive window would be, based on the free agents they signed. Soriano's signing signalled the immediate switch to a "win now" mentality, and thus necessitated the assemblage of a largely imported team of established big-league players (e.g. Lilly, Harden, Dempster, Fukodome, DeRosa & Bradley). Now the window appears to be closing, and the hundred million dollar question has become: how will Soriano age?

While there's no perfect answer, an easy approximation can be generated by looking at how similar players have fared after their 34th birthday. According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar hitter to Alfonso Soriano (by age) is Matt Williams. The mere fact that we're discussing Matt Williams should bring to light the myriad shortcomings with this line of analysis, nevertheless, Williams delivered a Mike Schmidt performance in his age-33 season, posting a .303/.344/.536 line while banging 35 home runs and driving in 142. The rest of his career, which spanned four seasons and 306 games, Carson Crusher hit a grand total of 44 home runs, only once exceeding a .315 OBP or driving in more than 50 runs. But again, Soriano and Williams are of widely divergent playing styles and body types; perhaps a more appropriate comp comes courtesy of PECOTA: Don Baylor. Baylor logged seven seasons after his 34th (the first four of the "complete" variety), hitting 125 home runs, posting five EqA's over .273 (two over .300) and appearing in two World Series (1986 with Boston, which he lost, and 1987 with Minnesota, which he won). Despite this, Baylor was hardly a standout player, logging only two seasons--his age-34 & 35 campaigns--with WARP's above 4.0 (5.1 & 4.0 respectively), and ending his career with two seasons of essentially replacement-level productivity. Also notable, over this time period he logged 723 games as a DH position, playing zero innings in the field these past two seasons; obviously this is a luxury Soriano will not be afforded. One last point regarding Don, and for those of you who remember Baylor as I do (that is, as a fat DH for the Twins with no remaining knees), this may come as somewhat of a suprise: he once stole 52 bases in a season! (Soriano's career high, coming in his first full campaign, was only 43.) But Baylor never again swiped twenty bags after hitting his 30th birthday. All this is interesting, but what do these comps--and others like them--tell us about Soriano's future prospects? PECOTA thinks it knows, and you ain't gonna like it (projected WARP's for the remainder of his Cubs contract follow):

(2009: 4.0), 2010: 3.3, 2011: 2.5, 2012: 1.8, 2013: 1.3, 2014: 0.5

Correspondingly, PECOTA offers an estimated "MORP" (marginal value over replacement player) for each of his projected WARP outputs. The values are generously adjusted for an 8% inflation in player salaries each year, and are listed in millions of dollars:

2010: $6.500; 2011: $4.875; 2012: $3.575; 2013: $2.700; 2014: $1.300

That's $1.3 million dollars of marginal value over a replacement-level player in a season the Cubs will be paying him $18 million...ouch. In fact, taking the amount of money due to come Soriano's way from 2010-2014 and subtracting from it his MORP, gives a difference of $72.55 million! That difference represents well over three times the value of Soriano's projected MORP performance; staggering numbers, even ignoring the fact that Soriano is currently undershooting his 2009 WARP projection by 3.1 wins. Using our more-elementary system, Soriano is worth only $6.11 million over the final five years of his deal. Adding the $7.745 million dollars in "debt" he has accrued over the deal's first three years to the nearly $89 million in projected "debt" he is expected to over the final five, Soriano will have to deliver four playoff berths (that the Cubs wouldn't otherwise secure) in order to justify his contract.

A lot of people thought that this deal was stupid the day it was signed (myself being one of them), we were just unable to grasp the grandiosity of Hendry's ineptitude until the early returns were in. And if the Cubs are unable to make a legitimate title push this year, in a weak National League, we haven't even begun to see how ugly this could get. So lay off Brian Sabean...Barry Zito has a WARP-1 of 0.7 this season, anyways, pretty damn similar to 'Fonso's. Today, indiscretion has a new name, and its "Hendry."

Manuel Override: Can the Mets Salvage 2009?

2009-07-14T16:42:00.002-05:00

Contributor: Athos

Strange happenin’s all around the baseball world as of late. Ian Snell has put up a microscopic 0.34 ERA in fours starts for Triple-A Indianapolis; if this currently frustrated righty isn’t a prime candidate to pull a Doyle Alexander down the stretch for some contender, I don’t know who is. In other news, something called ‘Fu Ye Ni’ currently occupies a space in the Tigers bullpen—still trying to wrap my mind around that one. And, being as it is now the twentieth of July, Mr. Met needs to start being seriously concerned. The national media and fans outside of New York City proper, citing the return of Jose Reyes (and the eventual returns of the Carloses, Delgado and Beltran), seem to believe it’s a foregone conclusion that the Mets will be in contention come September. Equally unsettling, some actually believe Jeff Francoeur (who has actually managed to lower his EqA 32 points from his .229 showing in Atlanta) will prove a positive, nay an essential acquisition in the realization of this fantasy. If you believe that, I’ve got some ocean front property in Idaho you may be interested in. This team is earmarked for a middle-of-the-division finish despite what Joe Gariolgio (or whoever runs the sub shop racket in New York) has tricked himself into believing.

History doesn’t bode well for this bunch. One would assume that if you run a ballclub that has been repeatedly weak down the stretch, one would shy away from a manager who has been at the forefront of several “Tin Cup-esque” collapses. That is, unless you happen to be Omar Minaya, in which case this hiring makes perfect sense. (Fun brain teaser, courtesy of Wally: in a world of pure, unfettered energetics, would the cognitive dissonance Omar Minaya experienced trading for a white player be sufficient to counteract the negative karma from two consecutive epic September collapses? My vote is YES!) For years I myself had a front row seat to Jerry Manuel’s managerial struggles when his talented-but-listless White Sox teams spoon-fed AL Central Titles to the Twins. Thus, if you are Mets management, Jerry Manuel represents everything you don’t want: a staunch baseball traditionalist with a laissez-fair attitude towards his players who served as the top lieutenant to each of the team’s previous two failures (spearheaded by Willie Randolph). Manuel is only the head of the shit-berg, however.

Let’s talk about Jose Reyes, whose presence the past two Septembers likely hurt the team more than has his prolonged absence this season. A transcendent talent, Reyes is a legitimate burner on the basepaths who also possesses a stellar defensive skill-set. And examining the superficial numbers, one would come to the conclusion that Reyes was a more-than-effective player in both '07 and '08. In those seasons, he’s posted OPS’ of .775 and .833, respectively, from the leadoff spot, and has been above average defensively (1.8 UZR/150), despite some concentration lapses and a disturbing degree of general carelessness. However, going beyond these numbers we start to see an alarming trend. During the final months of the last two seasons, Reyes has been downright suspect. Take for example an interesting stat from the Mets first collapse (2007): Reyes’ fly ball rate. For the season, the Met shortstop kept it at a fairly reasonable 38 percent, but for September, he boosted it up to 46 percent, easily his highest total for the season; being a leadoff man with fairly limited power, that ratio is downright obscene. Not only does it indicate a sea change in his plate approach, but it also squanders his most valuable asset, speed (which is best served by keeping the ball on the ground). Couple his late-season collapses with a well-documented lack of focus, add Citi Fields enormous dimensions and folks, we have problem, even if Reyes does return as expected. There have long been rumblings behind the scenes in Flushing that Reyes tends to lose interest when the Mets fall behind in the standings, and I can’t believe that a ten game deficit in late July, coupled with a certain “Frenchy” batting fifth, will do much to rev Mr. Reyes’ engine. I’ve seen it in print a hundred times, “as Reyes goes, so go the Mets.” If indeed this is true, the rest of the season could be a perfect storm of sorts for a titanic Mets swoon. With no timetable set for the returns of Delgado and Beltran, is there any hope of reinforcements on the horizon?

Short, passively-worded answer: not really. In recent years the Mets have hinged their future on everything from overrated youngsters (Daniel Murphy, Nick Evans, Jonathan Niese), to hopelessly flawed prospects (Lastings Milledge, Fernando Martinez). And the truth of the matter is simple: much like the substance-less LA of A system, the Met’s system is downright bad. So forget about it; Martinez, Niese, Wilmer Florez, Bobby Parnell and others are not saving the Metropolitans…it just ain’t gonna happen. But this predicament is not a mere prospect problem. Like a raccoon with Alzheimer’s, Omar Minaya has this pesky habit of diving headfirst into other people’s garbage, even when there’s essentially nothing there to be had. 'What, Marlon Anderson flamed out with the Nationals? Sign him quick, before the Schaumburg Flyers get in on the bidding!' 'Say, what’s that pile of shit those flies are circling around…is Fernando Nieve under there? Jesus Christ, somebody dig him out...and get him a guarenteed contract, already!' 'Hola, Omar here...Livan Hernandez is on the market you say? Will we take him? Are tacos delicious? ...Of course!' (Fun tidbit: Livan's ERA over his past two starts is 19.29, and batters have hit .568 against him in that stretch!)

What’s my point? This nasty trend just isn’t conducive to winning. Ask Dan O’Dowd about his early years as Rockies head man; other teams don’t sign these types of players for a reason. Still, the Wilpon brothers have allowed Minaya to operate like this for quite a while now (1) because the Mets have had the money, and (2) because the stars tend to clean up his messes, at least in the final standings. But now, with injuries to Beltran, Delgado and others, it has become obvious that this type of season was inevitable; the Mets are a sinking ship, and after they finish with 78 wins they’ll have to do some serious self-examination on every level. So, Joe at the hoagie shop, enjoy watching another year slip away in the East, and while you’re at it, get on a treadmill you fat guinea greaseball. Let's hear it for the MIDWEST!

Somebody Get Dayan a Taco

2009-07-08T22:04:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Seamus, Wally

I watched the Future's Game--my favorite spectacle of the year--and came away with the following impressions:

* Mike Stanton looks positively gargantuan...in a good way. Too bad he really didn't get a chance to swing it, nevertheless, I heard he put on an absolute show in BP (like Justin Morneau circa 2002).

* Dayan Viciedo looks equally gargantuan...in a fat way. Is it worse that I now feel 'reaching his ceiling' might mean becoming Eduardo Perez, or that I don't think there's even a chance this kid will ever reach that level? True, AA was a pretty ambitous assignment for Dayan, but its still hard to overlook that sub-.400 SLG. Hope I'm wrong.

* Speaking of which, kudos to the White Sox prospects for making the game's only errors, including one on the game's first play by Mr. Tyler Flowers. On the bright side, they each collected hits, in Viciedo's case, a pivotal double in the seventh and final inning. Back to business...

* Tyson Gillies looks like Michael Johnson. But with some serious skills; the kid can handle the bat and looks to have above average defensive tools to boot...I would have liked to have seen him in center. Additionally, the hearing aid story did not, nor under any circumstances should it have, [brought] tears to Rick Sutcliffe's eyes.

* Neftali Feliz looks like a closer. His fastball is one of the best in all of baseball (major league, minor league, Japanese major league...whatever), though I wonder how well he will ever command it. It will certainly take a while before he can command his breaking stuff, but in a relief role (which he has recently assumed for the AAA Roughriders, at least temporarily) this won't be such a big deal. He pitches like the lovechild of Carlos Marmol and Ubaldo Jimenez, and frankly I could see his career playing out either way. Nevertheless, my gut tells me closer as of now. That would be exceedingly unfortunate for Texas, who at least needs to try him as a starter...young dynamos with the ability to maintain their velocity late into games are a rare commodity, and they should all be tried in the rotation before being relegated to relief duty.

* My favorite prospect in all of baseball, Buster Posey (SF), was absent from the event, due to the rule limiting each team to a maximum contribution of two players. Following World Team 1B Yonder Alonso's injury, the Giants were essentially forced to send Angel Villalona to the game along with Madison Bumgarner, the top pitching prospect in the minor leagues. (Mad Bum didn't get the chance to throw however; as he was warming up, a four-hour rain delay halted festivities. Half an hour after the tarp was pulled over the field, there was zero chance of Bumgarner getting back up.) The ramifications of including Villalona on the World roster extended beyond the exclusion of Posey (who I believe to be a better catching prospect than fellow A-listers Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero, the latter of whom will likely move out from behind the plate before reaching the bigs). Likewise, Tim Alderson, an elite prospect in his own right, was nowhere to be seen. Ditto for Texas wunderkid Justin Smoak, though for different reasons (nursing an injury, the BA selection committee left him off, not wanting to deal with the circus of producing a last-minute replacement should he withdraw). Pity.

* Jason Heyward could well grow into a more-athletic Jermaine Dye, a much better comp than most would credit it as. He, along with Stanton, is a gigantic human being, a statement that holds true even though he currently lacks his full repertoire of "man muscles," a term I was unfamiliar with until last week, when I saw it in print a staggering three times! He has assumed Weiter's vacated throne as the top prospect in all of baseball.

* Ranking the top pitching performances, from most-to-least promising as it pertains to their big-league careers: Neftali Feliz, Chris Tillman (despite the less-than stellar results), Matt Latos, Kyle Drabek, Casey Kelly, Jhoulys Chacin, Brad Lincoln.

In other news, the future of the White Sox, Gordon Beckham, had another two hits last night, pushing his season average to .281. He's fast becoming my favorite player on the White Sox, and has a chance at becoming a legitimate big league star once (a) he is given a permanent positional assignment (my guess would be second; his finer attributes as a defender are being squandered at third, where he's looked lost at times) and (b) starts driving the ball (remember that just over one year ago he was still using a metal bat; the power will come).

Also, has anyone else noticed that the Hawk has started to double dip on the YESSS proclamation following every home run? It works in certain contexts--like when Paulie jacks his third bomb of the night, or Thome hits a go-ahead grand slam to log his fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh RBI of the evening--the rest of the time it just feels like a bit of DJ withdrawal (current broadcast partner Steve Stone has thus far resisted the temptation to join in the iconic call). Hang in there Ken; and by the way, that "You can put it on the board...YESSS...HELL YESSS" you dropped on us the other night was f*cking awesome. Almost as awesome as President Obama Barack'n the Sox Starter jacket out to the mound in St. Louis. Go Sox.

Rumblings also have Chicago looking to move a big contract or two. Question is, do the White Sox want to unload payroll while still (a) selling [relatively] high and (b) improving their ballclub, possibly even in the short term? Paul Konerko and Jim Thome don't have enough value to command a prospect yield worthy of their still-formidable skill sets and Jermaine Dye is far too good to give up. So don't even think about that, even with the return of Carlos Quentin on the imminent horizon. The guy who should go is Bobby Jenks. And soon. The ERA+'s of Thornton (152), Linebrink (149), Dotel (140), Carrasco (130), Poreda (188) and Pena (153 with ARI) suggest the Sox will be just fine without Jenks (120). Some club (Tampa Bay, Chicago (NL), Texas) must need an elite reliever, and [foolishly] believe that Jenks still fits that bill...right?

Is This the Same Howie Kendrick I Was Promised Would Win Multiple Batting Titles?

2009-07-01T21:19:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Bombykol

Certain conjectures in baseball seem to arise more often than is logically explainable. Such as this doosie, which any casual follower of the prospect scene has been privy to at least a half dozen times: "Howie Kendrick is going to win multiple batting titles by the time his career is finished." Really? Kendrick has posted a .227/.267/.350 this year, and there's been talk of his demotion to Triple-A Salt Lake, with Pacific Coast League HR leader Sean Rodriguez slated to take his place. Multiple batting titles? That's happened thirty-eight times; here's the list: Nap Lajoie, Cap Anson, Bill Duffy, Big Ed Delhanty, Honus Wagner, Jack Daugbert, Ty Cobb, George Sisler, Paul Waner, Harry Heilman, Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby, Lefy O'Douhl, Luke Appling, Joe Dimaggio, Stan Musial, Mickey Vernon, Ferris Faine, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Pete Rose, Roberto Clemente, Tommy Davis, Phil Runnels, Bill Madlock, Tony Oliva, Dave Parker, Rob Carew, Carl Yastrzyemski, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn, Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, Barry Bonds, Ichiro Suzuki and Joe Mauer. Next up, Howie Kendrick? What evidence do you have to support such a bold claim?

One commonly cited argument is that Kendrick absolutely destroyed minor league pitching over a 379 career game MiLB career; in fact, the argument can be made that Kendrick enjoyed one of the most prolific minor-league careers ever (extended stints highlighted below):

Adv-R ('03): .368/.434/.517 (63 G)

Lo-A ('04): .367/.391/.569 (75 G)

Hi-A/AA ('05): .367/.406/.614 (109 G, 63/46)

AAA ('06): .369/.408/.631 (69 G)

Kendrick spent quite a while in the pipeline, though to be fair, his extensive time of languish is partly organizational (see: Wood, Brandon)--most players do not need to post four consecutive seasons of .365+ BA to land in the majors. Then again, when you're being blocked by the force of nature that is Adam Kennedy, all bets are off. Kidding aside, Kendrick's farm club credentials are extraordinary, especially considering that they include a career OBP above .400 (.401) and a career slugging above .550 (.571), two plateaus that seem all-but-unreachable for Howie the big leaguer.

Yes, the majors have indeed been a vastly different story for Kendrick, and it hasn't all been attributable to injuries. First, let's acknowledge the blatantly obvious: Kendrick doesn't possess much in the way of plate discipline. Check out his base-on-ball and strikeout percentages in 2009, and over his three-year ML career:

BB%: 3.6% (2009); 3.2% (career)

K%: 17.6% (2009); 20.0% (career)

Vladimir Guerrero has a career BB% of 9.1%, Ivan Rodriguez of 5.1%, Jeff Francouer of 4.9% and Yuniesky Betancourt of 3.2%. Of these notorious free-swingers, only Francouer has a K% nearing 20% (19.6% career). Needless to say, this is not good, as Francouer is a career .254 EqA hitter, a slightly below average figure when considering all ML players, and a well below average one for a starter at the premium offensive position of RF.

Taking Vladimir Guerrero as our case study in productive free-swinging (and branding Francouer our poster-boy for hacker inadequacy), let's see how Kendrick stacks up. For any free swinger, it is imperative to consider how they fare when offering at pitches outside of the zone (note: the statistics we will be concerned with are denoted by an O- prefix for 'outside the zone'). As swinging at would-be balls is the M.O. of a hacker, we would expect Kendrick's O-Swing% to be well above the league average of ~25%. Indeed it is, by a formidable 12.2% over the course of his career. As you can see, Guerrero and Francouer stack up similarly:

Career O-Swing%: 37.2% (Kendrick), 38.1% (Guerrero), 36.4% (Francouer)

Likewise, we might expect his O-Contact% to be at-or-above the league average of ~60% if he is to beat all justified in his ~40% O-Swing%. However, an important caveat exists in this regard, which explains why increasing the number of attempts may actually lower the contact percentage, even for a proficient free-swinger. Many batters elect to expand the strike zone primarily to attack the proverbial "hanger," blatant mistake pitches that even a disciplined hitter may view as advantageous to offer at. As such, we can forgive Kendrick's O-Swing% for sitting slightly-below league average for his career, though he is toeing the lower precipice of what can be considered acceptable. Guerrero, on the other hand, is well above 60%, and sits over ten percentage points higher than his teammate Kendrick for their respective careers:

O-Contact%: 53.5% (career), 64.9% (Guerrero), 56.8% (Francouer)

This is more of a nod to Guerrero's transcendent hitting chops than it is a brazen indictment of Kendrick; Vlad, needless to say, simply occupies another plane of bad-ball adeptness. Still, all is not well for our boy Howie, as his performance on pitches out of the strike-zone nearly mirrors that of Francouer.

Extending the Francouer comparison further, the Braves right fielder has posted a 1.18 GB/FB ratio over the course of his career, ironically, an identical figure to that posted by Twins catcher and two-time batting champion Joe Mauer. Kendrick, on the other hand, is sporting a career ratio of 1.85 (1.89 in '09), placing him closer to Ichiro (2.35 career) and Juan Pierre (2.49) than Joltin' Joey. (For some additional perspective, Joey Gathright has a career GB/FB ration of 4.46, Adam Dunn of 0.72.) This is notable because Kendrick is a line-drive oriented hitter (20.0% LD% career) who is seemingly at his best when squaring up the ball and shooting liners to all fields. He is simply not, and will never be, a slap-and-dash type who amasses IF hits with pure foot speed. Additionally, Kendrick BABIP on ground balls has been within .001 of his career .246 mark each of the past three years, neither a terrible nor an aberrational number, but not overly encouraging for someone hitting as many grounders as Howie.

All of these statistics that I've thrown at you are not meant to suggest that Kendrick can never be a .300 hitter (on the contrary, I expect him to hit at or above .300 most years), or that Jeff Francouer is somehow closer to a batting title than him. Rather, it simply indicates that Kendrick would be well served to put the ball in the air more often; if he were to do so, the comparisons with Francouer would quickly cease. Again however, a caveat is necessary. According to a very interesting article on FanGraphs.com, the 'line-drive rate' in Angel Stadium is a mere 0.84 (with 1.00 being league-average for the number of batted balls coded as line-drives). This means a line-drive is 14% tougher to hit in Angels stadium than in, say, Yankee Stadium (1.00). (note: In fairness to our comp, Mr. Francouer, his home park of Turner Field is sporting a line-drive average of only 0.86 itself.) The reasoning behind this low figure is difficult to ascertain, but Southern California's air/weather conditions along with a degree of scoring bias is more-than-likely to blame.

Even if he does develop into a .300 hitter, Kendrick is going to need to be extremely fortunate (see: Mueller, Bill; .328 in '03) if he is going to win a batting title with his current (career) peripherals. But forget batting titles--this season, Kendrick has been terrible at the dish, a negative VORP guy, and thus a detriment to his team. However, he is certainly not as bad a hitter as he has shown. What is to blame? Consider the following data:

BABIP: .346 (career); .329 (2006), .382 (2007), .362 (2008), .258 (2009)

...which more or less speaks for itself. But to understand what ails Howie, we need to go deeper. How are we to explain a BABIP that is 88 points below his career average; can it all be purely chance? Short answer: no. His BABIP in '09 is not a black box, and can be explained in a variety of ways, none of which by itself represents a decisive answer. The first way is to write-off his career average as a tad high, perhaps by as many as 20 points (over what he can expect for his career). For comparison, Vlad Guerrero has posted a .322 BABIP over a much larger sample size, not uncommon for an elite hitter. Year-to-year fluctuations are to be expected, but still, .258!? Even in an off-year, this is still 10 to 15 points below what we would expect for Kendrick. Have pitchers simply begun to adjust? The numbers suggest that Kendrick is seeing approximately the same distribution of pitches this year as he has in any other, perhaps slightly more fastballs, but heaters have never given Kendrick any problems; to simplify:

Off-Speed% ((CB+SL+CU+XX)/TOTAL): 40.2% (career), 37.3 (2009)

What he has been able to do with just about any pitch, however, has changed markedly in 2009. Aside from the aforementioned 57.8 GB% (which is about 10% higher than would be considered 'ideal'; Guerrero, 44.3% career), Kendrick's line drives are also way down. As Kendrick has played in Angel Stadium his entire career, the absolute percentages may be slightly misleading, but the relative percentages are startling, nonetheless:

LD%: 12.5% (2009), 20.0% (2008), 15.9% (career)

A one year drop-off of 7.5% is really quite puzzling, and a 12.5% mark for the year is downright discouraging, as ~20% is the mark of a vey good-to-elite hitter. If forced to pick one statistic that sums up Kendrick's struggles in 2009, LD% would be at or near the top of the list. It is hard to maintain a BABIP when one's line drive percentage takes such a major hit; grounders and fly balls simply don't find as much open real estate as liners.

Kendrick has been snowballing in recent weeks, and as his numbers continue to decline, his already pedestrian defense has suffered as well. It's hard to prescribe a minor-league stint for him, as well, as he has nothing left for him to accomplish the MiL level; to compound this, anything less than a resounding success could be potentially demoralizing, as Kendrick has experienced only prodigious productivity at all minor league stops. Perhaps the best thing for both Howie and the Angles is just to allow him to hack his way through this tough patch (or hold out until he inevitably injures himself), hoping that the other bats around him show some signs of life (for instance, off-season acquisition Abreu (picked up, for all intensive purposes, instead of ManRam), has one measly homer and a .382 SLG through 47 G). One way to stimulate the lineup: promote Brandon Wood and give him some g*ddamn AB's. Erick Aybar (.279/.309./.395) and Maicer Izturis (.262/.301/.291), who at one point batted third this season...with a .291 SLG...batted in the three-hole...with a .233 EqA...THIRD, IN A F*CKING MAJOR LEAGUE LINEUP...is Mike Scioscia just toying with Angels' mgmt, seeing how much ridiculous bullshit he can pass as "strategy" before he gets fired!?!?

Returning to the topic at hand (though it's unfortunate that my runaway thought trains are incapable of pulverizing the gigantic ignoramus that is LA of A's manager): Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis are not quality major league shortstops. Brandon Wood, on the other hand, who has yet to get hot in the Triple-A PCL, is still posting a .288/.365/.576 through 37 games, and thus should constitute a major offensive improvement given the opportunity. Wood, a notrious streak hitter, has never been given enough AB's at the big league level to truly show what he can do. Because his manager is a stubborn, antiquated jackass, plain and simple. Wood and his career MiL SLG of .894, can most certainly help the offensively anemic Angels at short or third (3B Figgins, EqA of .270, after a blisteringly hot 17-game stretch). Once he is allowed to get in a groove, the characteristic hot streak that will inevitably ensue might be able to mask the ineptitude of the Angels other hitters, or at least take enough pressure off Kendrick so that he may resume his ascent towards adroit hacking before '09 is lost for good.

An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part IV (The Coom Dogg Strikes Again)

2009-06-28T18:39:00.001-05:00

Contributor: Wally

Mere minutes ago, Ron Coomer, in response to the prompt "why have the Twins performed so well in interleague play?" argued that "...they situational hit good."

Grammatical issues aside...Minnesota's interleauge performance has nothing to do with the fact that they routinely play the Milwaukee Brewers, who, prior to several years ago, weren't worth their weight in bratwursts? Or that over the course of the past two seasons, that they've also squared off against NL marvels Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego, Colorado, Arizona and Washington? No, it's probably their situational hitting, which I hear is quite good.

Touché Ron Coomer, touché.

The Nightman Cometh...From Holland!

2009-06-28T14:16:00.008-05:00

Contributor: Wally

Down-trodden White Sox fans, players and officials, the time for cautious optimism is at hand! Jose Contreras, Alexei Ramirez, Dayan Viciedo...pick up your telephones and call Kenny Williams. Ask him for Aroldis Chapman's phone number, for he hath defected in the Netherlands, and has stated that he is ready to sign with a Major League team. And where better than the Cuban defector refugee camp that is the Chicago White Sox franchise? With Jake Peavy sitting at home in a walking boot, and Oswalt refusing to waive his no-trade clause, who could've imagined a pitcher would become available with more upside than either of them!

A long, lanky southpaw featuring a violent arm action and a high release point, Chapman sits in the mid-nineties (93-96) with his fastball, reaching 100 at times (in fact, he was reported to have hit 102 during a Serie National game). He also features a changeup, slider and curve, none of which are plus-pitches yet, but all of which have shown frequent glimpses of becoming out-pitches in the future (especially the overhand curve). Think Ubaldo Jimenez from the left side, sans a refined breaking pitch but with a more explosive fastball and a higher ceiling. Obviously, at age 21 (or thereabouts), Chapman has not fully realized his potential, nor can he be considered the least bit "polished." Nevertheless, scouts at the WBC commented that Chapman is "one or two simple mechanical tweaks away" from being a front of the rotation starter right now...and even if he isn't yet ready to start, whichever team he lands with can immediately boast a left-handed Marmol-esque relief ace. Good fucking gravy!

Minnfarction favorite Buster Olney went as far as to compare him to a left-handed Strasburg; no stranger to exaggeration, this is the same man who dubbed Strasburg the potential 'best pitching prospect ever!' In the interest of giving due credence to Strasburg's utter dominance, this comp should be disregarded as hyperbolical. Nevertheless, if such a sentiment were to permeate the industry, even to a limited extent, a bidding war would inevitably ensue (and it will). All it takes is two, especially if those two happen to be the Yanks and the Sox (or the Yanks and the Mets, the latter of whom might want to consider upgrading their rotation), but with each additional front office entering the bidding, the price will jump into entirely new strata. For a defector, that is; expect Contreras' benchmark four-year, $32 million deal to be easily topped, especially if teams see Chapman as the potential #2 prospect in all of baseball, and a big-league ready commodity. But let's be clear; he is not Stras. For one thing, Strasburg's success in international play (1-1, 1.67 ERA in the 2008 Summer Olympics) dwarfed that of the Chapman, who went 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two WBC games in '09 (all things considered, a pretty small sample size). Still, to say Chapman is not Stras is to say one thing: he is not the best pitching prospect of the past two decades (or, if you believe Buster, of all time). It is not to say he isn't the second-best, or possibly the third-best...still pretty damn high praise, even if former proponents of Darvish, Beckett and Prior don't share the sentiment. Most importantly, all this chatter doesn't amount to anything even remotely resembling a red flag. Boston and New York will be regarded as frontrunner, as well they should be. But doubt has to exist within these respective organizations, the debacles of Matsusaka and Contreras still fresh in the minds of ownership. So I say to you, Ken Williams, to White Sox ownership, players, fans, vendors and fair-weather, green hat-wearing, pink jersey sporting yuppies, lo', to any South-side Chicagoan that will lend me their ear, let's go get him!

The Elephant in the Room (Or Perhaps on the Sleeve)

2009-06-24T16:32:00.006-05:00

Contributor: Athos

Billy Beane’s trigger finger has to be getting itchier by the night. With his offense struggling and the pitching staff decimated by injuries, an Oakland A’s fire sale seems inevitable. Guys like Nomar Garciapara, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Bobby Crosby could all certainly be had…but would anyone want them? Then, of course, there is big, scary Coors monster Matt Holliday, perhaps a fit for the Cardinals (even with Mark DeRosa), the Red Sox or the Giants. Certainly the last place A's are looking for more than a compensatory first-round pick for their big offseason acquisition, but whether teams can and will bite is another issue. Surely calls will be placed, but Beane should not expect to be bowled over by the quality of the offers for what amounts to a three-month rental (followed by an assured Boras-fueled exodus). Needless to say, the A's are not in an enviable situation...however, a sudden upswing by several young pitchers has made things a lot more interesting in a pitiful west division. The A’s are one of the more interesting rosters in the big leagues, and with vestiges their winning days still semi-intact and lurking, they warrant further examination. Just how far can this Oakland team go (hint: 9.5 GB, expectations should be tempered)...?

Let’s start with the rotation, of which Dallas Braden is the elder statesman. While he might not yet be comfortable puttering around the clubhouse, waxing poetic about the steroid era, his 26 years of age looks downright ancient next to the other arms on Oakland's staff. In fact, injuries to veterans like Justin Duchsher and Dana Eveland may have been a blessing in disguise, allowing Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro and Josh Outman to get some on the job training earlier than expected. While each has taken their lumps, they appear to be settling into a groove over the past few weeks. Cahill, Mazzaro and--to a lesser-extent--Anderson have done what many in the A’s front office expected, becoming effective but inconsistent major league arms (the first two having ridden devastatingly heavy fastballs to surprising early success). Here are some quick VORP's on the three arms:

Mazarro: +11.4, Cahill: +10.4, Anderson: -6.8 (though traditionalists will point to his 5.45 ERA as acceptable for a youngster)

*Quick note: Vin Mazarro's DERA (Defense-adjusted-) is 2.68, a full four-tenths of a run better than his NRA (neutral-, and thus not adjusted for defense. This constitutes a major disparity, and suggests the Athletics defense is truly subpar. Considering the numbers for Cahill (4.04, 4.57) and Anderson (6.36, 6.51), it beings to look suspiciously like a pattern...one the A's pitchers can't be thrilled about. In a recent six game winning streak, Anderson, Cahill and Mazzaro all kept their WHIP’s under one, numbers not usually associated with rookies barely of the drinking age. While none seem to be much of the strikeout ilk (none are on pace for more than 100 K’s this year), their control and poise cannot be questioned. While these three have been heralded, they’re not the only guys contributing. Josh Outman was, and still is a relative unknown. He stuff is far from overwhelming, but he has yet to have a bad start and in a division this weak, that might be enough for your fourth or fifth starter (note: since this was written, Outman has elected to undergo TJ surgery, ending his season). Now, if this type of rotation seems a bit like a house of cards, reinforcements are on their way; Duchscher, and Eveland are on their way back to health, and Sean Gallagher--he of the 98 mph (albeit wild) fastball--all are waiting for their opportunity. So, if the rotation was a concern before the season, it now rests as an area of cautious optimism…I give it a solid B grade so far.

The Bullpen is flat-out underrated, like Tina Fey pre-"30 Rock." Many people who claim to follow baseball wouldn’t know Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, and Santiago Casilla from Joe the Plumber, to borrow a phrase from the Jim Bowden-esque Sarah Palin. So nevermind the bullpen, it isn't a problem and it it grades out as an easy A. If you don’t believe me, just watch closer Andrew Bailey (VORP: +18.1); he’s the ringleader of the solid troop the A's have lurking in their pen. Time to move onto something a lot more fun: offense (though it hasn't been that way thus far for Oakland).

Being a statistics guy, I can see the value of Jack Cust and the potential upside of the Jason Giambi acquisition, though its becoming increasingly difficult to justify the latter. I’ll be the first to admit that the Giambino has lost a step or five after he stopped plunging sharp objects into his ass, but a guy who’s hit 11 homers while getting on base 34 percent of the time is still welcome[ish] on my 25 man roster (though absolutely not in the cleanup spot, and preferably not even in the starting lineup until he turns it around with the bat, VORP: -2.4 ). Cust is cut from the same mold--the former Friars farmhand has produced good power (.418 SLG) with a good, if not great, on-base percentage from the DH spot (VORP: 3.0). These two are joined in the middle of the order by ringer Matt Holliday, he of a team-leading +15.5 VORP (and the second of the A's five position players in the positive). And though his first trip through the AL has been an up-and-down ride, he's finally starting to look like the guy we saw fueling Rocktober a few seasons back. (Side note: that guy is positively beastly.) The rest of the lineup is patched together with journeymen and less-than-heralded youngsters, but I’d like to take a minute to take a look at 2nd basemen Adam Kennedy (VORP: +14.1), a forgotten man who the Cardinals cut and was seemingly signed as a stopgap during the Mark Ellis’ injury. Indeed, something quite odd has happened. Kennedy has produced. While his career pedigree doesn’t indicate he’ll keep it up, the A’s are happy to ride the wave, similar to the John Marby roll of a few years back, when Marby, a career reserve, got on a bizarre roll and helped carry the A’s to a division title. If Kennedy proves to be the next Marby, A’s fans (and Beane) will be more than happy to hold on to him. All things considered I give the A’s lineup a D (and, in case you're wondering, the suddenly power-starved Kurt Suzuki (+9.6) and the perpetually power-starved Ryan Sweeney (+1.7) are the other two positive-VORP'ers...ouch).

In most cases, these marginal grades would reek of a bad, no-upside club. And even with Mike Scioscia’s management continuing to reek like a toilet after White Castle, the A’s likely won’t be able to make up their current 9.5 game deficit to take the AL West. Nevertheless, I still believe that the A’s can and will develop into a decent team in 2009 (that is, exceeding their PECOTA-predicted 72 wins). At the very least, if Cahill, Anderson and Mizarro continue to develop, there’s no reason to believe that Oakland is anything less than the most intriguing last-place club in baseball.

A Preemptive Refutation of the Forthcoming "Kobe is Now, Irrefutably, the Best Player On the Planet" Declarations

2009-06-10T16:55:00.013-05:00

Contributor: Migs

I apologize in advance, but it's time to talk a little NBA hoops. In the wake of Orlando's game-four finals collapse, in which the simple administration of a non-shooting foul to Los Angeles' Derek Fisher in the game's waning moments would have secured a Magic victory (and a 2-2 series tie), I'd like to offer up my retribution to the inevitable barrage of "this championship cements Kobe as the best player in the NBA" sentiments.

Because as alluring as Kobe Bryant can be as a silky smooth, unstoppable offensive force, he is not the game's best player, nor is he even remotely close. That honor falls to a native son of the great Midwest...LeBron James of the recently-eliminated Cavaliers. Take a look at select statistics for each players' past season:

James: 31.76 PER, 59.1 TS%, 30.2 P/40, 8.0 R/40, 7.7 A/40

Bryant: 24.46 PER, 56.0 TS%, 29.7 P/40, 5.8 R/40. 5.4 A/40

*note: For the record, Chris Paul (who John Hollinger has convincingly argued has enjoyed the best inaugural four season stretch of any point guard since Magic Johnson) is number two. Dwayne Wade, last year's PER runner-up, is number three until Dwight Howard develops some semblance of a finesse offensive game.

LeBron tops Kobe in every single category, positively annihilating him in a head-to-head PER comparison (PER = Player Efficiency Rating [Hollinger], a measure of a player's per-minute productivity). Now, to be clear, Kobe is a better "natural" shooter than LBJ, both on the perimeter and at the free-throw line. However, LeBron's transcendent penetrating prowess and inside-shot-making ability has lifted him to a higher true-shooting percentage than Kobe (TOTAL [2FG+3FG+FT] MAKES/ TOTAL ATTEMPTS)...by more-than three full percentage points. This relatively small disparity does not properly reflect the chasm that existed between the two players' overall offensive contributions in 2008-09. Shooting, by itself, is obviously a poor quantification of overall offensive production; LeBron's 7.7 assists per 40 minutes are crystal clear proof of his indisputable superiority as a facilitator (a full 2.3 assists more than Bryant averaged given the same floor-time), and thus as a complete offensive force. Additionally, there is no argument to be made about each players' respective teammates 'coloring' these statistics; Kobe's cast of Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Fisher, Bynum, Walton and Vuyacic is at least as proficient as James' posse of Williams, West, Ilgauskas, Varejau, Smith, Szczerbiak and Gibson, and after the latter's disappearing act in the Eastern Conference Finals against Orlando, the Lakers contingent makes a convincing case for being definitively better. Returning to a direct comparison of Nike's obnoxious puppet personas, how about rebounding disparity? Again, there is no comparison; James' 6'9" frame clearly constitutes an advantage over the Kobe's 6'6" model (a listed height, and likely a fabricated one, to Kobe's credit as a rebounder). LeBron's athleticism constitutes perhaps the most impressive size/strength/speed combination that I have ever seen on a basketball court: imagine Karl Malone with sprinter's speed and an incredible vertical. Kobe used to have the ability to inspire a similar sense of awe with pure explosiveness and fluidity (remember that reverse dunk at MSG?), but needless to say he has lost a step or two at age thirty.

To those of you who would rather ignore these statistical realities, and delve instead into the ethereal, whimsical realm of gastrointestinal premonition, I'll save you the breath and say everything you were thinking. Additionally, I'll save myself the difficulty of attempting to turn these dubious intuitions into coherent arguments, and simply express them in a stream-of-consciousness buzzword parade.

"Clutch...closer...ball in hands at end of game...Black Mamba...ice water...fiery competitiveness...(contrived) scowling...Eagle County...maritime abortion...Phil Donahue"

In all fairness to Kobe, the man is a stone-cold killer during the final minutes of the game, and seems to live to take high-pressure shots (including, but not limited to "money shots," which Bryant admitted to Eagle County investigators, is "[his] thing"). However, LeBron is amassing an impressive late-game resume of his own, including a game winning, fall-away three pointer at the end of game two versus the Magic, and a stretch of either scoring or assisting on his team's final 32 points in game five of the same series. A series in which he averaged 38.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG and 8.0 APG, while definitively demonstrating that he was the most disruptive defensive force outside of the painted area (where, to be fair, Dwight Howard basically just nests, while LeBron must roam around and run Cleveland's attack on both ends, as well as on fast breaks). All in all, whatever heroics Bryant may have performed over the course of his career, they are not nearly enough to outweigh LeBron's contributions as a distributor, rebounder and defender of the 1-4 positions.

One additional thought--a transition of sorts before we turn our attention back to the diamond. Kobe Bryant, a privileged child raised in Italy, fluent in several languages, and certainly too intelligent, worldly and narcissistic to fit in with many of his teammates, has the most carefully constructed pubic image in all of sports, trumping even that of Alex Rodriguez. Each man has had hiccups lately (namely A-Rod's juicing scandal and Kobe's Katelyn Faber incident), nevertheless, they are cut from the same cloth. Each acts as if the camera were perpetually affixed on them, and them alone (which, as a rule-of-thumb, is fairly accurate). Recently however, this has manifested itself in a rather offsetting way for Bryant: his newly trademarked scowl. I remember vividly the first time I saw it, immediately thinking to myself, "Wow, I bet he actually thinks that will become the 'stick-your-tongue-out-while-driving-the-lane' (MJ) for a new generation...how terribly misguided." Kobe must have a really tough time relating to his black teammates; I'd bet most anything that his best friend on the team is Pau Gasol, and that everyone darker than Sasha Vuyacic regularly comments (behind his back) on how big a phony he is. Think "A-Fraud," only Kobe is much, much smarter than Rodriguez, who can't seem to get out of his own way. "Black Mamba?" You think it's a coincidence that Kobe gave himself a nickname that includes both the word "black" and the connotation that he hails from Africa? I don't. I enjoy watching Kobe play, but I would enjoy it more if I didn't feel like he was perpetually trying to pull one over on me; I can't shake the feeling that the man is more Michael Pietrus than Steven Jackson. Which is an overwhelmingly good thing, stop trying to cover it up!

Christ, I was bored just writing that, I hope none of you expect me to edit it. I may never figure out why I remain an NBA fan (I just can't quit you, KG). Regardless, and in the interest of full disclosure, I wrote most of this while watching the Twins play in Wrigley for the first time since 2001. Back to baseball next post, I promise.

Picking Up the Pieces; Commenting on Yet Another Peculiar MLB Draft

2009-06-08T14:34:00.005-05:00

Contributor(s): Seamus, Wally

Wow; what a truly shitty top ten projection we managed to pinch off. Although, to be fair, accuracy was not our principle intent. And, even in retrospect, I quite like the way we picked it. Just for kicks, here was our talent rankings for the draft (one through twenty), how we would have picked 'em if economics was removed from the picture (we being Seamus, Bombykol, Athos and Wally; actual draft position in parenthesis):

1. Steven Strasburg, rhp (1)

2. Tanner Scheppers, rhp (44)

3. Dustin Ackley, cf/1b (2)

4. Zach Wheeler, rhp (6)

5. Aaron Crow, rhp (12)

6. Tyler Matzek, lhp (11)

7. Donavan Tate, of (3)

8. Alex White, rhp (15)

9. Jacob Turner, rhp (9)

10. Matt Purke, lhp (14)

11. Grant Green, ss (13)

12. Bobby Borchering, 3b/1b (16)

13. Kyle Gibson, rhp (22)

14. Mike Leake, rhp (8)

15. Matt Hobgood, rhp (5)

16. "Jorge" Sanchez, c (4)

17. Mike Minor, lhp (7)

18. Shelby Miller, rhp (19)

19. Jared Mitchell, of (23)

20. A.J. Pollack, of (17)

Based on this list, several teams made out very well, namely, the Texas Rangers, who selected prep lefty Matt Purke with the fourteenth overall selection and Tanner Scheppers (in the supplemental first round) with the 44th pick. Kudos to the Giants for their selection of Wheeler over Matzek, though this may have been primarily economical, to the Rockies for scooping up Matzek with the eleventh pick, and to KC for (presumably) whipping out the checkbook and nabbing Crow at the number twelve spot. The cynic in me worries about a team like Kansas City selecting Crow, or Colorado selecting Matzek, since the 2010 draft class is shaping up to be extremely deep; I don't want to insinuate that these teams won't make a run at signing their picks, but I can't imagine either would be terribly disappointed if forced to stand pat ( thus recieving compensatory selections next season). Let's hope it doesn't turn out that way, especially in regards to Crow and Scheppers, who have already spent time in the independent league and who will be looking to sign bigger contracts than the slotting system will recommend. Other teams that made out well in round one: Detroit (Turner), Cleveland (Purke), Arizona (Borchering and Pollack w/successive picks), Oakland (Green), Minnesota (Gibson), Chicago (Mitchell), and Anaheim (Randal Grichuk and Mike Trout w/successive picks).

As for the teams that didn't make out so well, count Pittsburgh (Sanchez), Baltimore (Hobgood) and Atlanta (Minor) among them. Particularly puzzling is Baltimore, who seemed to go the right direction, picking a prep righty, but nonetheless chose a flabbergasting player, the rotund Hobgood, while Wheeler, Matzek, Turner, Purke, Gibson, Miller and Chad James remained on the board (as well as Scheppers, Crow, Leake and White). Of the aforementioned hurlers, I would have taken Wheeler, Matzek, Turner, Scheppers, Crow and White definitively over Hobgood who, despite his overly generous physical "endowments," possesses a plus fastball and a positively nasty bender. Additionally, I would have at least thought about selecting Purke, Gibson and Leake as well, all of who possess less arm-talent but better bodies, command and makeup than the Norco HS product.

Why the Pirates thought they needed a catcher while a plethora of good arms were still available is equally puzzling. Ryan Doumit, the Pirates current backstop has shown prolonged stretches of adequacy in his ML career, and looks to have secured the job for the foreseeable future. Why then, would a team pass up on so many talented arms to select a backstop whose most positive attribute is (near) big league readiness? Sure he is a good defender (Gammons described him as a "Molina receiver"), but again the Pirates have chosen a lesser talent in favor of greater signability (see: Moskos, Daniel). No wonder they have languished under the .500 mark for over a decade and a half.

In other news: Holy hell, Scheppers fell a long way. I'm guessing he felt a bit like Eminem during the "Way I Am" video. Still, the Rangers have to be thrilled with the talent haul of Purke and Schepps, especially considering the shoulder impingement that nagged Tanner last year is gone (he was throwing upwards of 97 mph in his last Northern League start). Seriously, who worries this much about a shoulder impingement? The number two overall pick had Tommy John surgery for Christ sakes! (Although Ackley is an outfielder...) Keith Law, whose second incarnation of his mock draft had Scheppers going #5 overall, dropped him out of his first round entirely for his forth edition. If this reflects an industry consensus that arose over the course of a month (when Scheppers was starting regularly and sitting in the high ninties), we'll look back on this draft as one where lots of teams overreacted to relatively minor, freakish arm ailments, and consequently passed up on some pretty damn good players (most notably Scheppers and Gibson, who currently has a stress fracture in his throwing arm that will not require surgery).

A few other quick thoughts:

* The White Sox and Red Sox made out pretty well with a pair of athletic outfielders, Jered Mitchell and Reymond Fuentes, respectively. Heard them compared to the next Crawford and Reyes-lite, though Dexter Fowler may be a more appropriate comparison for Fuentes, Andrew McCutheon if Reymond is able to fill out his frame a bit, Michael Bourn if he fails to grasp the strike zone.

* Hardest kid to sign in the draft? Perhaps it won't be Crow, Matzek or Scheppers after all...consider Tate, a two sport star who has been hesitant to give up football and has verbally committed to play for the baseball and football programs at the University of North Caroline. Slot money won't do it, even at the number three overall spot, and it could take substantially more to lure this fabulous athlete to Southern Cal.

* Good job by Oakland, nabbing a shortstop who is as big league ready as any position player in the draft not named Dustin Ackley. Bobby Crosby didn't work out, and though Green is a similar player (who has also garnered Longoria (w/o the power) and Tulo (w/o the arm) comparisons), he is talented and polished enough to make a quick impact in the bigs, ala Gordon Beckham this year, assuming he sticks. Oakland needs an infusion of young productivity in their lineup, as they will lose Holliday, Giambi, Cabrera, Garciaparra and likely Crosby by next season. Green may well represent an upgrade at the SS position, possibly in the immediate future and almost certainly a few years down the line.

* Great decision by the MLB Network--with legendary draft guru Jim Callis at their disposal--to give the insufferable Harold Reynolds a seat at the main desk, along with host Greg Amsinger, John Hart and Frank Markos. Still, I did enjoy the "I'm going to kill you if you ask another stupid question" look Hart began shooting our boy Harold after the telecast's 25th minute or so. (In case you're curious, or if your only experience with Mr. Reynolds has involved him sexually harassing you or someone you know, Harold was undeterred by Hart's Medusa eyes, and continued to pepper him with stupid goddamn questions for the next two-and-a-half hours.)

* If I ever have to sit through "Transformers 2," for any reason, I'm going to pop a testicle. (Fuck Shia LaBeouf, by the way; Steven Spielberg's man-crush on him is only further evidence that the once great filmmaker has lost his goddamn mind.) The same goes for "G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra," an ostentatious inane movie about an elite fighting force, starring Dennis Quaid. Because when I think elite fighting forces, I think Dennis Quaid (and gay little cookie-cutter dolls). Remember the movie "Small Soldiers?" No? Good. Well G.I. Joe might have fit into the cast of that cinematic masterpiece, as the pussy little bitch toy all the bad-ass toy soldiers, especially the one with the flat top, beat the shit out of for combing his hair and fastening every button on his uniform. That's it, Joe doesn't fit into ANY OTHER MOVIE; not even "Toy Story"--those characters were far too nuanced. And certainly, by no stretch of the imagination, into a flick where the part of G.I. Joe is played by an actual human actor. Attention: unintentional comedy alert, Code Segal...

The Rule Four (First-Year Player) Draft 2009: How We'd Draft 'Em

2009-06-05T15:22:00.012-05:00

Contributor(s): Seamus, Bombykol, Athos, Migs

(*To be perfectly clear, this year's post-Strasburg draft is a complete crap-shoot, and a completely amaurotic shot in the dark after Ackley (most likely) goes second. What follows represents the way we would pick it, considering only what we consider to be the financial limitations of each team (thus White, Green and Purke slide past several potential [cash-strapped] suitors and out of the top ten). Also, recent reports have Gibson and Scheppers falling, perhaps even out of the first round (as well as Crow, though much less so); this probably should have prompted a re-ordering of our top-10, but as the draft starts in a couple of hours, it's hard to see the point. Plus, if Gibson and/or Schepps pan out the way we anticipate they will, this should only strengthen our 'told ya so' credentials. Oh well.)

1. Nationals: Stephen Strasburg (RHP)

Reports of Stras throwing 103 mph are both apocryphal and ridiculous. 98-100 mph, however, is both likely and downright scary, as Strasburg's fastball displays unprecedented movement for a pitch of this speed (running hard away from right handers). Add this to a filthy slider sitting in the 90 mph range, and you have a pitcher that I expect to see in the major leagues before season's end, assuming a contract can be reached in a relatively timely manner. Just don't rush him--there is absolutely no reason to overly tax his invaluable arm, especially considering how many innings the youngster has already logged for SDSU.

(I'm very much looking forward to Strasburg's first start on FOX, in which the radar gun will probably read in the neighborhood of 108 mph...to which Joe Buck will reply, "Wow, 108! That's impressive stuff from the young man," and Tim McCarver will answer, "You said it, and I think that was his slider!")

2. Mariners: Aaron Crow (RHP)

The most commonly thrown-around comp for presumed #2 overall pick Dustin Ackley: Darin Erstad. Holy Jesus Christ monkeyballs, I hope they're referring to year 2000 Erstad, who was a veritable stud, not every other year Erstad, who was a big, floppy Ponginae scrotum, more reminiscent of Al Cowens than Todd Helton. Ackley has a beautifully compact swing, is short to the ball and displays ample enough bat speed to confidently predict power increases down the road. Still, despite plus foot-speed, I'm not sure I am completely sold on Ackley as a center fielder. At least not for the entirety of his twenties. This may be where the Erstad comp is most pertinent; likely a better first baseman than an outfielder, Darin remained capable of playing center late into his career, though he often proved to be more flashy than sterling. Quite simply, the range of either of these gentlemen is not overly impressive, nor is the arm strength (though it should be noted that Ackley underwent Tommy John surgery last season; how he recovers is anyone's guess). Bottom line: despite a pathetic offense, the Mariners recognize that the 2009 draft is all about pitching; of particular pertinence, the top of this year's class contains a plethora of young power arms that can help big league clubs real soon (though, as always, this is contingent on signability considerations).

3. Padres: Dustin Ackley (CF/1B)

Since I took up Crow's space talking about Ackley, I should mention a few things about Crow. A three pitch guy, Aaron sits in the low-to-mid 90's with the heater, which he complements with a sharp slider (low-80's, excellent tilt) and an infrequently utilized, slow-to-develop change. Drafted #9 overall in 2008 out of Mizzou, Crow is good enough to make the Nationals lament the day they failed to sign him. To put matters in perspective, then-GM Jim Bowden and Co. essentially passed on a Stras-Crow-Zimmerman 1-2-3 in 2010--not a bad set of building blocks for a young team moving forward. Pity, for despite Crow's awkward delivery (in which he violently hooks the elbow of his throwing arm), he could break into the majors as soon as this season. As for the Padres, Ackley is certainly capable of helping their anemic offense (ETA 2010), especially with the corpse of Brian Giles set to be jettisoned, Scott Hairston more suited for corner outfield duty, and Gwynn Jr. likely not talented enough to sustain success in the majors.

4. Pirates: Donavan Tate (OF)

Easily the best of a weak crop of HS position players, I'm guessing Pittsburgh rolls the dice here on the youngster as opposed to breaking bank for a second year in a row. Last year's negotiations with Scott Boras (Pedro Alvarez) had to have left a sour taste in the mouths of perpetually-penny-pinching Pirates mgmt; this kind of an amaurotic dice roll should put them right back in their comfort zone (ESPN's Keith Law has Tate outside the top 32!). HS arms Kyle Gibson and Zach Wheeler are also possibilities in this slot, but given Pittsburgh's disastrous record of drafting first round pitchers, the uber-athletic outfielder is the safer, and likely more intelligent pick at No. 4.

5. Baltimore Orioles: Jacob Turner (RHP)

Predicting Turner to go before Matzek, Wheeler and Gibson based on talent is debatable, but far-from absurd. If one bases this one signability, however, it could easily come to pass that Turner becomes the forth prep pitcher selected, perhaps even by a team outside of the top-ten. Nevertheless, after selecting Wieters and Matusz the past two seasons, Baltimore appears willing to spend above slot for quality youngsters, and they should have the money to throw at Turner, courtesy of their offseason Mark Teixeria bid settling facedown in the inner-harbor sediment. Turner would be a nice addition to the formidable stable of pitching talent in Baltimore's pipeline, which already features Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brandon Erbe.

6. San Fransisco: Tyler Matzek (LHP)

An industry consensus seems to be arising that S.F. will stay in state to select polished high school hurler Matzek, a well-built, four-pitch southpaw who sits in the low-90's with his fastball and the mid-80's with his plus slider. A big kid, Matzek throws with an excellent downhill plane, although his slow, loopy overhand curve may need to be tightened or ditched as he moves up the minor league ladder. A drop-and-drive guy, Matzek's mechanics look extremely advanced for his age, as does his frame, which is both broad and solid, especially in the lower body. As Bill James astutely notes, picking HS pitching prospects is not a science, rather a sloppy, blinded crapshoot; still, one has to like what Matzek has to offer, and I don't expect him to fall past S.F. at six.

7. Braves: Zach Wheeler (RHP)

Staying with the theme of selecting home-state HS pitchers, the Braves will be hard-pressed to pass up on Zach Wheeler, granted he is still on the board. I don't have Wheeler ranked higher than any of the projected 1-6 picks with the exception of Turner (though he profiles more similarly to a right-handed Matzek, albiet with a lower arm-slot); he is, however, substantially more signable. This makes him an option for any team picking in front of the Braves, should they get uncomfortable with a given player's price tag. A tall righty who generates easy velocity on his mid-90's heater with a long stride and a powerful drive off the rubber, Wheeler also features a slurve secondary pitch (in need of refinement) and a below-average changeup. As with all prep players, his time in the system will be longer than one would expect with a college arm, but with the college RHP pool so extremely shallow in '09, now is the time to gamble on a talented HS pitcher, especially given Atlanta's surplus of starting pitchers and Wheeler's advanced feel for his fastball.

8. Reds: Kyle Gibson (RHP)

Another small-market NL Central team who sprung for a high-profile collegiate slugger in '08 (Miami's Yonder Alonso), Cincinnati is expected to stick to slot this year, which most likely means picking from a relatively deep crop of arms. As I've already removed Turner, Matzek and Wheeler from the board, as well as outfielder Tate, Gibson is the next highest-ranked prep hurler on the list, and may well be Jocketty's choice. A polished righty who commands all three of his pitches (a plus fastball, a tight, late-breaking plus slider and a change), the biggest concerns with Gibson are medical, as he was recently found to have a stress fracture in his right forearm, though he should be fine and dandy after the allotted six week recovery time.

9. Tigers: Tanner Scheppers (RHP)

Detroit has never been afraid to spend on the draft, and this has paid off handsomely for them in recent years (see: Verlander, Justin; Porcello, Rick). Today's main feature: Tanner Scheppers, now featuring a clean bill of health courtesy of Dr. Thomas Yocum! After suffering a slight shoulder impingement last year, which knocked the presumed top-10 pick to the second round (PIT), Scheppers spent early 2009 with the St. Paul Saints of the independent Northern League. I recently had the opportunity to see him throw, and bring it he did, sitting in the mid-90's with his fastball (topping out at 97 mph), while also featuring a two-plane curve (that he showed startlingly little command of) and a changeup, which was much better than advertised (as he threw it with good arm speed and located it on both sides of the plate). Some industry types have Scheppers' stock free-falling; I don't see it. Not much has changed in the past month for Tanner; being as talent evaluators likely are not basing their assessment on results in the Northern League, this finally-healthy prospective top-10 pick last season should make good on that promise this year.

10. Nationals: Bobby Borchering (3B/1B)

The second half of Washington's first round double-dip will be 100% about signability, as estimates put the bonus figures in the $20-50 million range for Mr. Strasburg. The talent pick here may be UNC righty Alex White (now with split-finger!). The actual pick will be a lesser-known prep player; perhaps a Wheeler type, if he were to fall, but more likely Everett Williams (of), Mike Givens (ss/rhp), Bobby Borchering (3b/1b) or the substantially-spendier Matt Purke (lhp), though they will not receive another compensatory pick if they fail to sign their No. 10 overall selection. If the collegiate ranks are the direction they wish to go, Kennesaw State's Chad Jennings (rhp) and Baylor reliever Kendal Volz (rhp) could be in play, with Jennings representing the significantly cheaper option, even as a SP.

Vitamins and VORP Lords (+An Unabashed Homage to FJM: Part III (I Would Gladly Tickle Derek Jeter's Balls as He Fucks My Girlfriend))

2009-06-04T13:26:00.012-05:00

Contributor: Bombykol, Wally

In their latest installment, the Sporting News put together a list of the top 50 players in baseball, as voted on by a panel of enlightened individuals. What resulted was a gigantic bacchanal of fallacy, fatuousness and fraudulence, the largest scam perpetuated on the American public since oral vitamin supplements. Needless to say, said list is achin' for evisceration. This critique utilizes only a few relatively basic statistics, most notably EqA, ISO, UZR, and B.P.'s BRAR and FRAR, thereby avoiding the ranking of players based solely on WORP's, VORP's and/or Win-Shares (each of which kicks ass, but can be looked up relatively easily by interested parties; also interesting, Mr. Bill James constituted exactly 1/100th of the panel). And it was undertaken to demonstrate one simple truth. One can easily dispatch of a panel of pundits (often former players and managers, "group-think[ers]" that reach their conclusions by means extraneous to the realm of logic), using nothing more than rationality. Critical thought is obviously of the utmost importance in analysis, a truth that should be completely intuitive, yet is all-to-often brushed aside in favor of gastrointestinal premonitions.

A wise man once was said, "your eyes can deceive you...don't trust them." It will now be demonstrated that the ability to hit a 95 mph fastball has dick to do with the analysis of a dynamic entity as beautifully intricate and complex as the game of baseball. (The run-down follows the S.N.'s list, though rankings from Minnfarction's "Top 50" list (which can be found, in its entirety at the bottom of the post), are contained within the parentheses following each player's name...)

1. Albert Pujols (1)

Absolutely spot-on. Big Al has a career EqA of .344, posting a .367 clip in 2008 (a year in which he was 97 BRAR) and following it up with a .358 thus far in '09 (already 26 BRAR). Pujols shows tremendous plate discipline, routinely taking around 100 walks per year with O-Swing% (percentage of swings at pitches outside of the strike-zone) south of 20%; also, he rarely strikes out (a paltry 12 K thus far in '09, career K% of ~10%), made more impressive by his rarely putting the ball in play without authority. The consummate "pure" hitter, Pujols' tremendous power often goes overlooked and under-appreciated: in 2008, Al posted a .342 ISO (isolated power: SLG-BA), along with a LD% of 22.4% (a high number, contributing to what should be considered a slightly aberrational .346 BABIP, though his career mark sits at a sparkling .322). Additionally, Pujols posted a phenomenal 18.8 UZR in 2008, and ranks third amongst 1B with an 8.5 UZR/150 in '09 (trailing only Mark Teixeria and Joey Votto); 'Prince Albert' hasn't made more than eight errors in a season since 2005. As if that were not enough, scouts laud his baserunning ability

2. Alex Rodriguez (9)

Uh, no. A-Rod is a obviously a great hitter, although not without flaws (for example, a career BB% of 11%, and a Contact% (75.8% in '08) more reminiscent of Mark Reynolds than Joe Mauer); obviously, this is nit-picking for a player with a career EqA of .320, but when ranking the top 5-10 players in the game, differences tend to lie in relatively minor details. Here's a major detail, however: Rodriguez's UZR at 3B is routinely between +2.0 and -2.0, which is excluding the significant outlier of 2006, where he posted a terrible -11.8. Last season, A-Rod was a disappointing four runs below replacement at 3B, a far cry from the 35-44 FRAR seasons a significantly slimmer Rodriguez produced as a SS for Seattle. Being as A-Rod is no longer the superlative offensive force he once was, especially with lingering questions about his hip labrum, his complete package of offensive and defensive production does not merit top-five player status in 2009.

Ironically, another third baseman fits the top-5 player(s) in baseball bill much better than does A-Rod: Evan Longoria. Where does Longoria rank on Sporting News' list? Twentieth! That is pure ridiculousness, especially considering that is putting him behind the likes of Derek Jeter, Mo Rivera, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia. He's currently cooking up a .339 EqA in 2009 (after posting a .301 as a rookie) with an ISO of .311, as well as sitting 23 BRAR and 13 FRAR (5.6 UZR '09, 14.9 in '08) for the young season. And he's driven in a ML-best 47 runs while lead-off man B.J. Upton flounders below the Mendoza-line.

3. Johan Santana (6)

This is not the proper forum to debate the relative value of position players versus pitchers; It's suffice to say that I have no problem with Santana's positioning on the list. I personally would have ranked him 2-3 spots lower, but the Mets ace has unequivocally established himself as the premier starter in today's game--this is merely an acknowledgment of that fact. What I do have a problem with, however, is the absence of a pair of Johan's teammates in the top ten: Carlos Beltran and David Wright. Wright is a lot like Longoria offensively, sans the stellar ISO (.221 career for Wright, including .232 in '08 and .178 in '09). Still, ISO is a statistic measuring the disparity between SLG and AVG, and Wright should continue to hit for a better AVG than Longoria. Wright's career average is .312 over 5+ seasons, and though his career slugging remains a rung or two below spectacular (.533), consecutive 90+ walk seasons have his career OPS sitting at a virile .926. The Mets' third sacker is also more accomplished on the basepaths than Longoria, although any athletic advantage this might suggest in and of itself does not necessarily carry over to the field (-4.3 career UZR, despite the lengthy highlight reel). (note: B.P. has Wright at 21 and 22 FRAR the last two full seasons, respectively, which is comparable to Longoria's 24 FRAR in his only full season.) At this point, Wright looks to have hit his ceiling; although he has plateaued at a very impressive level of production, the sky remains the limit for the younger Longoria, and he should get the nod as the superior player going forward.

Wright is very good, but not a top-five player in the league. Beltran, however, has been nothing less than that in 2009. This, along with his impressive all-around resume (over 10+ years of service time), places him firmly in the discussion of the most underrated great players of the past two decades. Various publications have graded Beltran as the best defensive CF in baseball over the past three seasons, a time period in which his UZR's have actually sunk below his career average (which, oddly enough, are not terribly special in and of themselves (8.8 in '08, Andruw Jones, by comparison, registered a 30.0 in '05)). Nevertheless, B.P.'s FRAR statistic has Beltran posting the stellar full season totals of 28, 35, 24 and 37 since signing on with the Mets, an average of 31 runs saved over a replacement-level player during the four-year window encompassing Beltran's age 28-31 seasons. During this time, Beltran has stolen 83 bases at an 85.6 % success rate, and seven of eight already in 2009. Remarkably, this is below his career stolen base rate of 88.1% (he has netted 282 SB through May 20, 2009)! All this from a switch-hitter who has scored 1,064 runs in 1,522 games while posting a career .293 EqA, including three consecutive seasons of .300+, and a .dazzling 370 clip thus far in '09. Like Wright, neither Beltran's career ISO (.211) nor his SLG (.499, though with three seasons near or above .550) jump out at you; no matter. Beltran is one of the game's most complete players, one whose success is not entirely contingent on a monstrous offensive output. The commonly misused five-tool distinction was invented for Beltran; a truly spectacular player.

4. Manny Ramirez (19)

I'll admit that I didn't see Ramirez as a P.E.D. guy. And perhaps he wasn't in his early days, possibly not even until his precipitous decline began in late-2006, a time in which the .275-.300+ ISO that had become his staple gave way to a .197 mark in 2007. All of this has been speculated about to an insane degree, so I won't convolute my forthcoming argument by offering up some hastily researched conspiracy theory rehash. What I will say, however, is that assuming that Ramirez's "Big Hurt Baseball"-esque production in Dodger blue was chemically-enhanced to some degree, the soon-to-be 37 year-old defensive black-hole (-15.3 UZR/150 in '09) is clearly not the fourth-best player in baseball. Nor does he deserve to be ranked twenty-four spots ahead of Miguel Cabrera (who has averaged 63.8 BRAR the past five years, and 11.2 FRAR), a player that profiles very similarly, and has garnered many a 'comp,' to Manny Ramirez (who has averaged 50.8 BRAR over the same span, including his LAD stats, & -2.8 FRAR). Do a little arithmetic, and the "Net"-RAR (BRAR + FRAR) for Cabrera is +75.0, substantially greater than Ramirez's +48.0; additionally, Cabrera is eleven years younger.

5. Hanley Ramirez (3)

Getting warmer, pollsters. This is about where HanRam belongs, though you're still relatively underrating him by placing him below the likes of A-Rod and Manny. In fact Ramirez, an elite offensive force each of his three full seasons in the league, is a top-3 player when he's playing defense. This year, Ramirez is posting an impressive 18.6 UZR/150, tops in the league at the SS position (and the first positive ErrR (error runs above average) of his career). That number may not jive with the ol' eye test, but it nonetheless qualifies as "plus" defense, even in light of the small sample size encompassed. And considering Hanley's UZR's (and RngR's, range runs above average) since breaking into the league have read -6.0 (-1.0), -19.2 (-13.1), -0.7 (2.4), it also constitutes major improvement (remember that, when factoring in positional difficulty, a SS UZR in the 0 to -5 range is still quite 'valuable' (and roughly equivalent to a +10.0 UZR recorded at 1B)). Perhaps Ramirez will stick at the position longer than expected; if so, consider his place in the top five cemented.

Yet whether he sticks at short or not, Hanley remains an offensive monster, having posted 45, 71 and 70 BRAR's over the course of his career. These numbers are impressive for anyone, but staggering for a middle-infielder. Coming off the first .400+ OBP season of his career (featuring a career-high 92 BB), Ramirez appears to be continuing his improvement at the plate, although his overall offensive value has taken a slight hit by declining SB numbers both in terms of number of steals (51, 51, 35) and success rate. While this is what one expects from a burgeoning power hitter (Alex Rodriguez (1998): 46 SB), taken together, HanRam's "shortcomings" still place him behind...

6. Chase Utley (2)

A better hitter than his career .298/.378/.529 line would indicate, the last complete season in which Utley was fully healthy (2007) read .332/.410/.566. Some will remember that during the first half of last season, before suffering a then-undisclosed hip labral injury (which was operated on following the World Series), Utley was actually exceeding these lofty standards, finishing April with a .352/.427/.741 with 10 HR. By June second, those numbers read .320/.403/.680 with 20 HR and 50 RBI. Boasting perhaps the game's quickest wrists (and undoubtedly its most compact swing), Utley is an extra-base machine at a premium defensive position. A position he plays stupendously well, to the tune of a four-year FRAR-run of 45, 37, 34 and 37 going into 2009 (just for fun, his BRAR's over the same period read 52, 55, 62, 59, for "net" RAR's [BRAR + FRAR] of 97, 92, 96, 96). Over the same period, Utley has averaged a UZR of 15.75, pretty damn impressive for a second baseman. And Chase is a very effective base-stealer when electing to delve into thievery, having swiped 23 bases in 25 attempts the past two seasons. In lists such as these, the difference between 6 and 8 is generally assumed to be negligible; to this point, the fact that Utley is located merely two spots above Derek Jeter is a truly offensive display of ignorance...more on this later.

7. Roy Halladay (12)

I'm a little surprised voters gave Roy this much sugar; then again, when one watches only Boston and New York, one ends up seeing Toronto quite a bit. Halladay's average season (per 162 games, and including his relatively non-descript age 22-24 seasons, split between the rotation and the bullpen) is staggering: 230.0 IP (5 CG), 17-8, 3.48 ERA (including ERA+'s of 158, 145, 184, 143, 120 and 154 his past six full seasons, plus a 179 thus far in '09), 165 K, 52 BB and a 1.200 WHIP. Props to the panel for choosing "ol' reliable" over flavor-of-the-month studs Tim Lincecum (who doesn't possess a large enough sample size) and C.C. Sabathia (who has been completely exonerated from his lousy first-half performance in 2008 (1-5, 7.51 ERA going into his May 9 start v. TOR), which effectively killed Cleveland's playoff hopes).

8. Derek Jeter (51-60)

No no no no no. Seriously, this is asinine, boarder-line psychotic ludicrousness. Jeter does have a 14.3 VORP this year (promise it's the only time I'll use it), good for fifth-best amongst all shortstops. It also places S.N.'s eighth-best major leaguer in the middle of a Marco Scutaro (4) / Cristian Guzman (6) sandwich. Tarnishes the luster quite a bit, doesn't it? Either Sporting News stumbled upon some sort of quantum time vortex, which subsequently transported them back to the year 2004, or none of them have seen a Yankees game for the past two or three years. And to trump it all, Sporting News turned to Todd Jones for analysis and justification:

"When I look at Derek Jeter, I see a champion. A captain. A guy with the "it" factor. A guy who handles whatever comes his way with so much savvy and cool we just shake our heads."

Ironically, this topic was recently addressed in the 'Nutrition and Biochemistry' section of "The Journal for Sports Science and Medicine." Using a modified polygraph (in which electrodes were attached to the subject's forearm and axillary regions), researchers were finally able to quantify Jeter's glandular secretions of "It-factor-3." After isolation and examination, you know how many games this lipopolysaccharidic residue has won the Yankees since 1996? Zero. It has, however, proven to be a powerful pheromone for sports writers in heat.

"Jeter always seems to be in the middle of big moments because he is involved in every play."

You know who else has been involved in a majority of his team's plays this season? Padre's catcher Nick Hundley. (In fact, by Jones' logic, every starting catcher should immediately garner accolades for their degree of play-to-play involvement, which, by the way, is exemplary.) Since this makes no sense, he must be referring to the mental aspect of the game. I've watched Derek Jeter, and he does appear to be glancing in towards home during each and every delivery, as opposed to sitting cross-legged, picking at the outfield grass like Carlos Lee and Grady Sizemore have been known to do.

"He always is directing, teaching, focusing and grinding."

He is, for lack of a better analogy, the Dalai Lama of professional baseball...twelfth son of the llama...gunga galunga.

Plus, who else foresaw the word "grinder" popping up at one point or another in this "argument?" More appropriate question, did anyone fail to?

For critique of the word, "grinder," I defer to the great Ken Tremendous, who defined it as "a nebulous buzzword; a synonym for a submarine sandwich." My Chicago White Sox won the 2005 World Series playing something their general manager would later describe as "grinderball." Sorry, try again. Or just admit you made that word up to convolute what really happened. You got lucky: be happy that your top five starting pitchers had simultaneous career-seasons to bail out a mediocre offense and slightly above-average defense. The word "grinderball" is absolute nonsense. You might as well have dubbed it "hystricine-ball," or "sarabande-ball," it would have just as much meaning. If there is such thing as a grinder (there isn't), Jeter certainly is not one. A grinder has to be lucky, and his success has to be transient, otherwise it would be attributable to skill. Bad players do not (in fact, cannot) grind their way to prolonged success. The best they can do is to trick gullible managers into continually writing their names onto lineup cards (see: Eckstein, David (career .259 EqA); Counsell, Craig (.248); and Punto, Nick (.239)). Derek Jeter (career .297 EqA) has not "ground" his way to anything, he is supremely talented, athletic and hard-working. Darin Erstad had a .313 EqA in 2000...did he scrupulously hone and utilize his skill-set for that year alone, only to forget how to play baseball the next? No; he was merely lucky (.378 BABIP). But that year earned him six additional years to grind away at the offensive output of the Angels lineup. In the next six seasons, Erstad's EqA exceeded .255 exactly once, ironically, the same number of times his FRAR exceeded 21. Still, Erstad busted his ass on groundouts, threw his body towards balls (at multiple defensive positions) and returned to the bench dirty so many times Mike Scioscia could not stomach the prospect of dropping such a player from his lineup. Mike Scioscia is a moron.

Returning briefly to a point I glossed over, what exactly constitutes "luck"? Luck is that fickle, inexplicable entity that drives sabermatricians up the wall when uninitiated people fail to recognize the importance of adequate sample size in statistical analysis. Juan Pierre has a .992 OPS in 2009. ARGHHHH...403 BABIP...MGRMPHHH...!!!

"He isn't a guy who puts on his game face only when the red light comes on."

I assume he means the red indicator light on the camera, and that this is not simply a misunderstanding of the customary red-yellow-green traffic light system. Not that one makes a whole lot more sense than the other: Jones is basically implying that some players only play hard when the camera is on them, which, since the advent of local sports networks, encompasses every single game. Now this could mean that Jeter is the rare player who works as hard on the Spring Training B-fields as he does in the sixth game of the ALCS in Yankee Stadium, however Jones reveals in his next statement that some guys aren't playing as hard in May as they will be in October, thus implying that even the proverbial "red light" is not enough to motivate the average ML ballplayer. I beg to differ on the grounds that Todd Jones is a big blubbering vagina-head who has never been right about anything. And that most big leaguers care about their performances, and that of their teams.

"Because he plays the same way in May as he does in October, he is prepared for big moments because he is playing the game at the same speed he always does."

Quick writing tip: don't qualify a statement beginning with the indefinite article "because" by employing a statement that is also dependent on the word "because;" it's just tacky. Also, to your point, baseball is a game that requires an absolutely minimal amount of physical exertion. It's truly pathetic when stacked up against other team sports such as basketball, football, soccer, lacrosse, etc., games that require their athletes to be superbly conditioned (or at least to display some degree of cardiovascular fitness, unlike, say, Todd Jones). The point is, plenty of major league players (in fact, I'd venture to say the majority of them) play the game the same way in May as they do come playoff time, simply because its not a strenuous preposition in the least. This is not to say Derek Jeter isn't a fiery competitor, but just because Justin Morneau elects against pumping his fist in response to difficult putouts does not mean Jeter's competitive streak somehow exceeds that of Morneau. The real argument, hinted at in the second "because" statement, is that Jeter does not let the adrenaline-soaked atmosphere of playoff baseball speed-up the game unnecessarily, promoting ill-advised swings and reckless errors. Again, Derek Jeter is not alone in displaying this virtue; he is, however, the most extolled upon big-leaguer of our era, with many a Bob Costas-narrated, acoustic-guitar accompanied paean to his name. Thus Jeter's ranking would be understandable if this list had been made by the American Film Institute; we as statisticians, on the other hand, strive not to allow our opinions of objective entities be influenced by the presence or absence of slomo jump throws set to an orchestral soundtrack. Derek Jeter circa 2009: H.O.F.'er, .275 EqA'er, negative FRAA'er, 1.0-3.0 WARP'er...no longer one of the 50 best players in professional baseball. Just because.

9. Marinano Rivera (51-60)

Is Mariano Rivera a transcendent talent? Yes. Is he the best relief pitcher of my generation, despite some epic collapses in high-leverage situations? Most likely, yes. Is he still one of the top 5 relievers in baseball? In 2009, Rivera's WXRL (Expected Wins Added for Relief Pitchers) is a mere 1.561, just above that of Fernando Rodney (1.513) and below that of twelve other pitchers (including studs Bell, Papelbon, K-Rod, Broxton and Hoffman, and journeyman-types David Aardsma (2.693, tops in the league), Frank Fransisco, Scott Downs and Ramon's Troncoso and Ramirez). This proves essentially nothing, as Rivera was worth 6.172 additional wins in 2008, second in the league (to Brad Lidge), and 3.696 in 2007, good for seventeenth in the league. What it does prove, is that one can find relief pitchers anywhere; most team's do not find someone of Rivera's quality, even for a single year, let alone for a career, but it would take a really special three-year performance for any RP to break the top 50; Rivera simply has not provided that, despite his H.O.F. credentials. Closers pitch 50-60 times per year, for little more than an inning per appearance, generally with a lead of one to three runs. A league-average major league pitcher gives up a run every other inning; thus, if all saves were of the one-run variety, a league average pitcher would have a save-% of 50%. Many saves are not of the one-run variety, however, pushing the save-% of a league average pitcher towards the 75-80% range. Rivera's career save-% is 89%. Phenomenal for what it is, tremendous success in a relatively specialized 'niche' position, "the closer," created almost exclusively to register the relatively arbitrary, meaningless stat of "the save." Considering Rivera has been used for no more than a single inning (the ninth) for most of his career (see: Torre, Joe, managerial credo), his value is severely diminished by the nature of his trade.

10. Chipper Jones (24)

Another fabulous player; a H.O.F. switch hitter, MVP and batting champion with plus power to all fields and the track record to back it up. On the other hand, Larry is a defensive butcher (-21.1 UZR/150 in '09) at this advance stage of his career, and cannot seem to stay on the field for more than 137 games per year (note: he hasn't done so since 2003, a period in which he has only one 30 HR and one 100 RBI season). And you're telling me that this brittle, statue of a third sacker is better than Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Youklis, Zach Grienke, etc...at the ripe old age of 37? He ain't.

11-20. Ryan Howard (47), Grady Sizemore (14), David Wright (11), Justin Morneau (21), Jimmy Rollins (N-R), Josh Beckett (61-80), Mark Teixeria (22), Dustin Pedroia (51-60), Tim Lincecum (17), Evan Longoria (5)

What is Ryan Howard doing at eleven? Maybe in 2006 (or 2007 against right-handed pitching), but since then, Howard has been an all-or-nothing benefactor of a stellar lineup and a bandbox stadium, a very good player in his own right, but not a 140 RBI man in, say, the Diamondbacks lineup. And the strikeouts are troubling, even though no solid statistical evidence has been presented to suggest a strikeout is more detrimental than [insert favorite alternative out-making modality]. (Why is this the case? Generally, one who strikes out more hits into less double plays. Also, take for instance, a hitter who may 'choke-up' on the bat in order to slap a grounder to the right side, thus advancing a runner from second to third; over a great-enough sample size, a "swing from the heels" approach with two strikes generally results in substantial enough power 'gains' (relative to the conservative approach) that the injurious effects incurred by increased SO-rates are negated.) But Howard is striking out at a prolific, nay, historic rate, unseen outside of Phoenix, AZ; 579 K in three years! A ML clean-up hitter cannot fan in one-third of his official AB's (for a Contact% of merely 66.4% career) without it negatively impacting his team. Case-in-point, R-Ho's WPA (Win Probability Added) has dropped from 8.40 in his banner '06 campaign to 2.39 in '08, a time period that has also seen his Contact% and Z-Contact% (pitches in the zone) drop nearly four percentage points. That, plus his complete lack of contribution with the glove (0.7, 0.2, 2.8 UZR the past three seasons) knocks him out of the top fifteen...way out.

As for Beckett and J-Roll... Beckett was 12-10 last year with a 4.03 ERA, veiling good peripherals (8.88 K/9, 5.06 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP); still, the sixteenth-best player in the league? I'm gonna have to call East Coast media bias on this one, likely compounded by wet dream recollections of the 2007 World Series and vague, nostalgic flashbacks to his dominance in the 2004 postseason. Still, Beckett's stuff looked to be in decline last year, and his numbers this season back that up: 5.01 ERA, 3.88 BB/9 and a 1.53 WHIP (although on a flukishly high .346 BABIP). Holding Beckett out of both the Minnfarction top-50 and the 'first ten out' may have been more prognostication than evidence, but my desire to cancel out the Boston sports-media monopoly knows no bounds (see: Pedroia, 51-60; although, to be fair, Dustin has been at best the third-best, and most likely the forth-best (Cano), second baseman in the AL East this season).

Still, if Beckett looks shitty, then Jimmy Rollins looks like Papi droppings. J-Roll currently stands with a .216 EqA, a .109 ISO mark (after throwing up a .160 spot in '08), and 4 CS in 10 attempts (he was caught only 3 times out of 50 attempts last season), all while posting a pedestrian 1.7 UZR (3 FRAR) with the leather (although he has been a defensive stalwart most years). A career-high UZR of 12.6 last season masked a return to career-average production following the spectacular aberration that was his '07 MVP campaign; this year, aging legs and an undeterred offensive free-fall have booted him not only from the top fifty, but the top eighty.

21-30. Lance Berkman (16), Jose Reyes (30), Caros Beltran (8), Ian Kinsler (18), Zack Greinke (7), Josh Hamilton (13), Alfonso Soriano (N-R), Miguel Cabrera (15), C.C. Sabathia (23), Ichiro Suzuki (40)

Lance Berkman has a career EqA of .319 (.300/.412/.557); additionally, his BRAR's from the past eight seasons read 75, 67, 55, 76, 53, 73, 51 and 74. That's much better than most national media members give him credit for, especially in light of the fact that Berkman, finally entrenched at 1B for a full 150+, improved his FRAR by 37 runs from '07-'08, registering a respectable 22 mark last season. That places him on an extremely even playing field with Manny during six of the past eight seasons, with Berkman actually exceeding Ramirez's BRAR production four times ('01, '04, '06 and '07), though Ramirez's year-to-year fluctuations are much smaller, with the exception of a 'turrible' '07). All this was accomplished while switch hitting and playing 1B, LF, CF and RF for the 'Stros. Searching for a moral of this story? The last standing "Killer-B" deserves to be ranked similarly to Manny, not 17 spots behind him.

I originally had Kinsler ranked higher, within the top-15, before a recent offensive slump prompted me to re-examine his overall profile. Kinsler is certainly having a superb year (EqA .304), but his career numbers suggest an interesting paradox: he is markedly over-achieving in some key areas, while noticeably under-achieving in some others. (note: Ian's EqA was .311 in '08.) Kinsler is a mediocre second-base defender (despite a 12.4 UZR/150 in '09, Kinsler's UZR's the past three years read -11.2, -12.4 and -7.3), and his career ISO numbers sit below .200 (despite a .278 clip in '09). A potential reason for his increased power output is a significantly higher Z-Swing% (75.1%, as opposed to his previous career high of 65.2%, set in '08). Still, evidence exists that Kinsler, 26, may be playing below his current skill level, and I firmly believe that he will be able to improve his already stellar performance before the end of this season. Take for instance, Kinsler's line-drive percentage, which is down 9.2% from last season, currently sits 5.9 percentage points below his career average. That disparity is significant, and I am confident that it will rise, taking with it his .277 BABIP. While I don't expect a repeat of the .339 BABIP he posted in 121 games last season, I would not be surprised if his 2009 mark trended towards his career .309 standard in the coming weeks. That should culminate in a .315/.370/.550(ish) line, with 25-30 HR over a full slate of games; elite production, particularly should he maintain a UZR/150 in the 8.0-12.0 range. Kinsler has also converted 59 of 64 SB attempts the past 2+ seasons (10 for 11 in '09), further adding to his value.

31-40. Brandon Webb (36), Ryan Braun (20), Dan Haren (39), Frankie Rodriguez (N-R), Matt Holliday (51-60), Kevin Youklis (10), Vladimir Guerrero (61-80), Jake Peavy (27), Joe Mauer (4), Carlos Quentin (61-80)

Joe Mauer's OPS this season is 1.400, his ISO .438, and through 22 games, the Twins backstop is only three home runs shy of his career high (13, set in '06). For years I have defended the 6'5", 230 lb Mauer's dismal power output to overly-cynical Twins fans, promising them that the most graceful stroke in baseball would eventually net 25-30 HR annually. Mauer's lack of HR production early in his career has been largely attributable to a humble, line-drive oriented mindset; 'lofting' the ball simply had not worked its way into Mauer's toolkit as he made his yearly assaults on the batting title. Still, a player as naturally strong as Mauer was bound to eventually start "running into" homers as he matured, without compromising his superlative mental approach at the plate or his willingness to use all fields (in fact, much of the LH Mauer's early HR-binge has been directed at the left-field seats, not even including a prospective big-fly robbed by Tigers LF Josh Anderson). All too often, we looked at Joe Mauer, such a technically advanced hitter at such a young age, as a finished product; as infallible as he seemed on the diamond, it was hard not to.

But Mauer, a career .322/.404/.473 hitter (with a Z-Contact% of 93.4 and a sparkling 88.1 Contact% overall), is only 25, pretty damn young to have transmogrified into 1957 Ted Williams. But through the first month of his season (he sat out April with a back injury), Mauer has been just that, all while defending a premium position with virtuosity. Could Joe finish the year with an OPS above 1.000, while winning the AL batting title? I don't see why not (and .315/.950 is a lock). Does this make him a top-5 player in the league? Without question. And, to the Sporting News orangutan pollsters: he's better than unilateral leg paresis patient Vladimir Guerrero, who, along with declining offensive production (.658 OPS, .094 ISO, -0.28 WPA in '09; .886 OPS, .216 ISO, 2.17 WPA in '08), has averaged a Canseco-esque -15.4 UZR in RF the past three years. Not to be a prick to one of my childhood idols, but it ain't even close.

K-Rod, on the other hand, has no place on this list. A relief ace with a BB/9 ratio of 4.54 and 4.48 the past two seasons? This means a walk is given up, on average, every-other appearance; needless to say, that's plenty of sticky situations in the ninth inning, and Rodriguez has posted WHIP's of 1.24 and 1.29 in those campaigns, respectively. (Mo Rivera last year posted a BB/9 ratio of 0.72, for comparison, to go with his career WHIP of 1.02.) Frankie's K/9, perhaps the statistic for which he is most well known, is still quite formidable, however it dropped by 1.89 K between '07 and '08 (12.03 to 10.14), and has fallen by an additional 1.42 K this season (to 8.72). Add all this to a humble 54.2% first-pitch strike percentage, and you have yourself a nightly ninth-inning gut check. (Again, for comparison's sake, Joe Nathan has thrown 70.6% of his first pitches for strikes in '09.)

If it seems strange that I'm using Rivera as a comp, while completely excluding him from the top-50; it shouldn't. My beef with closers lies not in their skill, rather it's a fundamental usage/role definition problem. Rivera works the ninth in almost exclusivity, as does K-Rod. And the simple truth is that the game is not always "saved" in the ninth, nor is a "save" always a terribly useful thing (consider 3-run leads). For such a pigeon-holed 'role player' to earn a top-50 spot, he needs to be something amazingly special, essentially what Rivera has been for the majority of his career (with the exception of this season, where he suffered some major hiccups in key spots vs. rival Bean Town). Nathan, the only closer to make the top-50, has hit some pot-holes as well (KC, NYY), but his recent track record exceeds even that of Rivera, with three consecutive years of sub-2.00 ERA's (and four of the past five less than 2.00). K-Rod earned MVP votes last season for his record 62 saves, an impressive statistical anomaly, but one that was more reflective of contextual fortuity (lots of small, late-inning leads courtesy of a low-scoring offense and exemplary pitching) than superlative skill. To his credit, he's off to a stellar start in '09, but without the nonpariel peripherals necessary to justify a top-50 spot.

41-50. Jason Bay (33), Chad Billingsley (61-80), Clifford Lee (51-60), Torii Hunter (61-80), Victor Martinez (29), Roy Oswalt (31), Carlos Zambrano (61-80), Cole Hamles (26), Brian McCann (51-60)

Roy Oswalt per 162 games: 17-9, 3.17, 1.203 WHIP, 189 SO, and 51 BB, numbers not too different from those posted by fellow Roy, Toronto's Halladay. Each righty is a workhourse despite their radically different statures. Oswalt's numbers may actually be better than Halladay's, though the ERA+'s are not as impressive playing against NL Central competition as Halladay's are, competing in the AL East. (For some flawed and circumstantial (but highly entertaining) evidence of this, see Oswalt vs. Reds: 23-1, 2.35 ERA. Or just picture Mr. Red lying in the dark, maimed and mangled, slowly bleeding-out in the bowels of Great American Ballpark). Roy has been a little slow out of the gate this year, as he was in 2008, but it'll take more than one mediocre month-and-a-half stretch to bounce the a battle-tested 220+ inning/year stallion from the top-50, especially with the WBC having significantly altered his throwing program this spring '(read: accelerated, then bizarrely 'punctuated'...there were a whole lot of off-days during this year's tournament).

Time for a commendation; that was a bold selection of Chad Billingsley 42nd by the S.N. panel, one I can't help but respect. I had Billingsley a bit lower (maybe issuing an implicit rankings demerit based on his '08 playoff struggles), but 201 K in 200.1 innings last season, and a record that is already 20 games above .500, attest to how good a pitcher Billingsley is. And that's saying nothing of how good he can be if he continues getting ahead in counts (career high 61.3 F-Strike%) and intelligently utilizing a rapidly-improving cut-fastball (which he has constituted 23.4% of all Billingsley's pitches thrown this season, up from 18.8% last year and 14.4% the year before). The only caveat to the increasing diversification of his repertoire is a worrisome abandonment of his plus (92.2 mph, '09) four-seam fastball (which he has thrown only 50.7% of the time this season, a very low number for an elite power pitcher). Giants RHP Matt Cain, a good comp for Billingsley, has thrown his fastball 63.9% of the time this season, despite a velocity dip of nearly 2.5 mph from his 2006-2007 campaigns (where he threw it 72.0 and 64.5% of the time, respectively). Just like Billingsley, Cain is enjoying his best season through the first two months of '09, and is throwing his fastball at a career-low rate. Still, while Cain's average velocity is dropping (perhaps necessitating diversification), Billingsley has added mph's to his heater in '09. Additionally, career-low rates are both relative and subject to multiple interpretations; while Cain is still throwing his 4-seam fastball nearly 13% more than is Billingsley, if one assumes a relative equivalency of Cain's slider (85-86) and Billingsley's cutter (88-89)(which is obviously not a 1:1 equality, but will suffice to form an umbrella heading of "hard stuff"), the FB+SL/CT percentages for Cain and Billingsley are 72.6% and 74.6%, respectively. This "hard stuff" percentage is substantially different from what Billingsley recorded last year or in ''07 (78.0%, 79.2%), but as he currently stands with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a paltry .209 BAA, this is obviously not a problem in and of itself. However, not many pitchers can get by throwing only half of their pitches as fastballs; even Livan Hernandez, who hasn't been able to throw a D-I quality "plus" heater since the early 2000's, hasn't thrown less than 56.8% fastballs since 2003. Perhaps this is an early-season anomaly, but I'm guessing LAD brass would be relieved to see Billingsley sitting closer to his career mark of 61.2% than his current mark by season's end.

***The Minnfarction List***

(1) Albert Pujols, (2) Chase Utley, (3) Hanley Ramirez, (4) Joe Mauer, (5) Evan Longoria, (6) Johan Santana, (7) Zach Grienke, (8) Carlos Beltran, (9) Alex Rodriguez, (10) Kevin Youklis, (11) David Wright, (12) Roy Halladay, (13) Josh Hamilton, (14) Grady Sizemore, (15) Miguel Cabrera, (16) Lance Berkman, (17) Tim Lincecum, (18) Ian Kinsler, (19) Manny Ramirez, (20) Ryan Braun, (21) Justin Morneau, (22) Mark Teixeria, (23) C.C. Sabathia, (24) Chipper Jones, (25) Brian Roberts, (26) Cole Hamels, (27) Jake Peavy, (28) Adrian Gonzalez, (29) Victor Martinez, (30) Jose Reyes, (31) Roy Oswalt, (32) Joey Votto, (33) Jason Bay, (34) Jermaine Dye, (35) Nick Markakis, (36) Brandon Webb, (37) Joe Nathan, (38) Curtis Granderson, (39) Dan Haren, (40) Ichiro Suzuki, (41) Adam Dunn, (42) Derek Lowe, (43) Justin Verlander, (44) Raul Ibanez, (45) Josh Johnson, (46) Carl Crawford, (47) Ryan Howard, (48) Yovani Gallardo, (49) Ryan Zimmerman, (50) Felix Hernandez

(51-60 (alphabetical): Chris Carpenter, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp, Cliff Lee, Brian McCann, Dustin Pedroia, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria)

* Apologies to Chris Carpenter, who has not allowed an earned run this season, but has, unfortunately, been on the DL...again. If the DL were a country, Carpenter would be well-advised to apply for dual citizenship. Nevertheless, completely healthy, he's in the top-25. "And a somber happy trails to..." Bombykol cheeseball Prince Fielder, one year removed from 50 HR. Unfortunately, its beginning to look like the ~.500 SLG ('06, '08, '09) is standard, and the .618 ('07) was aberration. Plus, he's only my second-favorite vegan Prince. I should also take the opportunity to mention Alfonso Soriano's gargantuan over-ratedness; only once in the past five seasons ('06, WAS) has Soriano managed a BRAR above 40. Combine that with declining UZR values (which, while passable, have been almost entirely contingent on high assist totals), plateaued SB numbers (19 each of the past two seasons), and his characteristic low OBP, and it becomes apparent that the 32 year-old outfielder is no longer amongst the glitterati of the league.

(61-80 (alphabetical): Bobby Abreu, Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Chad Billingsley, Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, John Danks, Vladimir Guerrero, Aaron Hill, Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, B.J. Upton, Justin Upton, Carlos Quentin, Adam Wainwright, Carlos Zambrano)

** Next big thing alert: Watch for Justin Upton (.317 EqA (.325/.398/.618), .291 ISO, 9 HR) to crack the top-50 handily in 2010. He may never have the contact rate that one might like (67.3 Contact%, although with a 78.5 ZContact%), nevertheless, he may have the most torquelicious hack in the big leagues, a violent, titanic spectacle that produces tape-measure home runs and searing line-drives with ease. Also, keep an eye out for Rickie Weeks (who was on pace for ~40 HR before being lost for the season to a wrist injury), Adam Jones, (EqA .342) Colby Rasmus, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Weiters (AAA), Tommy Hanson (AAA) and Strass (SDSU) to garner consideration for the top-50 list in 2010. And for current VORP-king Jason Bartlett to revert back to the ~.275 EqA'er his previous performances indicated he should be in his very best year (which this most certainly is: .346 EqA, .411 BABIP). Not all of Bartlett's success has been serendipitously-placed pebbles and cockamamie defensive positioning, however; his Contact% remains stellar (86.3%), line-drives are up 8.7% from last year, he successfully converted stolen 14 of 15 SB attempts, and his UZR of 1.9 (which extrapolates out to a 9.7 UZR/150) is nearly equal to his '08 offering of 2.1 (logged over 125 games). Still, regression is on the way, and when it hits it will land Bartlett comfortably outside of the top-50 (and likely even the top-80).

Either way, Bill Smith will continue to look like a jackass for the Delmon Young swap (which, by the way, I was abhorrently wrong about; good Lord was I ever wrong...)

The Nationals Manifesto

2009-06-03T16:25:00.004-05:00

Contributor: Athos

Jim Bowden’s Reds defeated Sandy Alderson’s Oakland A’s in the 1990 World Series title. If this statement doesn’t make you question the justice in our world, you fail to understand how baseball works. Alderson should be remembered as a baseball savant...Jim Bowden should be remembered as a cartoon. Sandy Alderson ushered in Bill James and Sabermetrics...Jim Bowden once traded Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Cliff Lee for two months of a morbidly obese Barty Colon. However, despite this early-nineties atrocity, I’ll attempt to leave the past to rest, focusing instead on Bowden’s latest circus of buffoonery, the Washington Nationals.

“Tonight, Kirby Puckett’s the luckiest man in the world.” My all-time favorite baseball player (the afore-referenced Puckett) once said these very words; unfortunately I have to disagree. Today, each and every National’s fan can take a seat atop that throne, for I’m about to grace them with a set of simple, easy-to-follow instructions to fix Bowden’s mess.

Step One: If doing the same thing twice and expecting different results is the mark of insanity, Jim Bowden can't be far from padded walls, feces-throwing craziness. Want evidence? The Nationals currently possess twin leftfielders. Not the Coors Light Twins circa 2003, either--mediocre twins at best. Acquiring Austin Kearns clearly did not work; why sign Josh Willingham one year later? The answer is irrelevant. At least one of them needs to be traded for whatever they can fetch. And I mean whatever: a rookie ball arm with some upside, a strike-throwing AA spot starter, anything they can get their hands on. That type of deal frees up playing time for useful outfield pieces Elijah Dukes (and potentially even Lastings Milledge), with Adam Dunn remaining embedded in one corner spot.

Step Two: Focus on the bullpen. Despite Jim Bowden’s insistence on weighing a pitcher’s WHIP equally to his eating of Kix cereal on the scale of ‘bullpen building importance,’ he did leave some trading blocks through which he can bolster his relief corps. Two such blocks takes the form of Ronnie Belliard and Willie Harris. Belliard may seem unassuming, he gets on base about 33 percent of the time, and his defense is mediocre, bordering on suspect. In fact, when people speak of VORP (value over replacement player), Ronnie Belliard epitomizes that unknown replacement player. As does Harris, though his versatility is an asset, as is his ability to consistently put the ball in play. And, as fate would have it, the Cardinals may need that replacement player to stay competitive. The Cardinals also boast a slew of young relievers, making Kyle Mclellan, a young fireballer, expendable. If the Nationals were to acquire him, Mclellan immediately becomes their top set-up man. And if he is partnered with the reasonably-effective Joe Beimel in front of closer Joel Hanarhan, you have the makings of a fairly effective bullpen.

Step Three: Develop a plan for the rotation and stick to it. Jim Bowden had the unfortunate habit of giving up way too much (either in the form of money or prospects) for mediocre veteran arms such as Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Odalis Perez, and Daniel Cabrera. Rather than wasting time with ineffective (and often expensive) veterans, a low-budget club such as Washington needs to develop it’s own pitching depth. First, and foremost, sign Steven Strasburg. Enough superlatives have been thrown around when talking about Strasburg that I will just say this: get him in a uniform as fast as possible. He represents a once-in-a-lifetime building block to a rotation in desperate need of direction. Strasburg could be partnered with Jordan Zimmerman to form a young duo similar to the Neftali Feliz-Derek Holland Texas twosome. Strasburg and Zimmerman should be the easy part, but the rest doesn’t have to be muddy. Stop-gap “ace”, John Lannan has been reasonably consistent, and looks to be a somewhat reliable middle-of-the-rotation guy. After him, the Nats possess a slew of low-ceiling types whose main asset is youth. The law of averages suggests that at least one of the Shairon Martis, Ross Detweiler and Colin Ballester conglomerate should develop into something useful (at this particular moment, Martis appears the most likely). Finally, it’s time to go back to a sore subject, mediocre veterans. While my plan for the rotation is damn good, leaving four starters under the age of 24 is a matter of some concern. A perfect opportunity for our old buddy Livan Hernandez should make his grand return to the nations capital, along with all the pomp and circumstance that will surely ensue. While his effectiveness as a frontline starter dried up before Y2K, no one has ever questioned his ability to fill space (both physically and figuratively); manning the myriad innings left by the tender arms in front of him is a perfect job for Livan.

Step Four: Find a new ship captain. Manny Acta was a nice idea, but nice ideas don’t win pennants, my plans do. Credit him for dropping a "VORP" on Peter Gammons, then roll this season up, place it around his neck, and tell the players that they've been freed from the main weight holding this talented young group down. In actuality, Acta is not, nor has he ever been, the main problem in DC. He has, however, proven to be somewhat of a hothead, evidenced by the ill-advised destruction of his entire bullpen during a single game. Impulsive, hardly well-thought out moves such as this, coupled with the inconsistent treatment of young outfielders such as Dukes and Milledge, represent a mindset that is downright alarming for the supposed leader of the young Nationals. The brass in Washington needs to find a new face that not only embraces the views that Sandy Alderson brought in two decades ago, but also has no preconceived notions of the players in the system. And the name I’m about to suggest is a somewhat unorthodox: Tigers first-year pitching coach Rick Knapp. Knapp is a pitcher’s guy (vital for the young arms in the organization), has worked at every organizational level, was tutored under Jim Leyland, and has recently harnessed the talented-but-inconsistent arms of Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson (who both have been dominating). Additionally, the simple fact that he has even gotten flashes out of Dontrelle Willis, one of the most enigmatic puzzles in the today’s game, shows that Knapp has all the right stuff to lead a big league club.

The Nationals are at a (perpetual?) crossroads. The primary source of pollution has, at long last, been exiled; now the cleanup begins. They need to begin to embrace today’s philosophies, and assuming they don’t hire me as general manager (which would be the right move), they can at least build this franchise into an 80 win club in two or three seasons by simply abandoning all organization philosophies currently in place, and adopting mine!

Shakeup in the ATL: McLouth In, Gorkys Out

2009-05-31T21:29:00.006-05:00

Contributor: Seamus

And with that, we have our first major trade news of the '09 season (that doesn't involve a high-profile hayseed pitcher blue-balling the White Sox); Nate McLouth has been traded to the Atlanta Braves for a package of Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton. The Braves has certainly "utilized" a farm system that at one-point-or-another over the past three years included Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hanson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Heyward, Elvis Andrus, Jordan Schafer, Gorkys Hernandez, Gregor Blanco and youngsters Jeff Locke, Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran. Of these players, only Heyward, Freeman and Teheran remain on Braves-affiliated minor league rosters. Hanson, at long last, has been promoted to the big leagues, just in time to avoid a grade-A conniption fit from yours truly; soon he will reunite with CF Blanco, and eventually Schafer, who made the club out of spring training but has since been demoted. Feliz, Saltalamacchia and Andrus, on the other hand, were dealt for approximately one year of Mark Teixeria, and later turned into Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek. And now Hernandez, Locke and Morton (a successful 25 year-old Triple-A pitcher who struggled in his first big league action ('08)), are headed to Pittsburgh in exchange for McLouth, a 27 year-old corner outfielder whose ludicrous 2008 Gold Glove award may see him miscast as a center fielder for another year or two (though I would guess he will play at least some left field for the Braves). McLouth, a career .288 EqA hitter over three full[ish] seasons, is posting an impressive .299 EqA in 2009, though he has regressed from his aberrational 2008 numbers (.276/.356/.497) towards his career norms (.261/.339/.462) by posting a .256/.349/.470 thus far in '09, very good but hardly elite production. McLouth's EqA is also helped by his penchent for stealing bases--and for rarely being caught (64 steals, caught only five times career). Contracturally controlled through 2011, McLouth should help the Brave's stagnant offense in a way that off-season signee Garrett Anderson was simply incapable of at his advanced age. In addition, it will remove some of the organizational pressure from the Braves player development people, as Jason Heyward (who was recently placed on the DL in Hi-A Myrtle Beach with a hip-flexor injury) can now take his sweet time to develop instead of being rushed to the big leagues as a band-aid fix for a floundering offense. (Although, after holding Hanson down as long as they did, I doubt this would have ever become an issue.)

On the minor league side, the Braves farm system will suffer the departure of yet another highly-regarded prospect, Gorkys Hernandez, batting champion of both the Rookie Gulf Coast League and the Lo-A Midwest League since being stolen from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria heist. To be fair, Hernandez is a CF lead-off type, a role the Braves currently have a surplus of suitors for. Even after ineffective big leaguers Anderson, Francouer and Diaz are (presumably) shipped out of town, the Braves can still count on a McLouth, Schafer/Blanco, Heyward outfield in the coming years, not too shabby if future happenings approximate current player projections. If they don't, however, this could well become another move the team regrets. Assuming Schafer or Blanco sticks in center, Hernandez would have immediately become one of the premiere corner outfield defenders in all of baseball, and if center field were to open up (not outside the realm of possibility), Hernandez would also have been capable of manning that position admirably. A true range rover with a strong, accurate throwing arm, Hernandez is everything you look for in an outfielder. With the bat, however, Gorkys has struggled somewhat since his promotion to Hi-A Myrtle Beach, posing a .268/.348/.387 over a full slate of games in '08. While it is not uncommon for youngsters to struggle offensively following a promotion, this particular stat line highlights one problem with Hernandez's game, a marked lack of power. To his credit, he did steal 20 bases, nevertheless, concerns may have lingered that he would never have provided the power necessary to justify a corner-OF spot, assuming the talented Schafer remains in center. And with an organizational surplus of similar players, losing Gorkys was a blow the Braves were willing to absorb. Ditto Morton, who doesn't look to be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation/mop-up guy with his unremarkable repertoire and makeup. Jeff Locke would have caused me to hesitate, however. Locke is a pitbull on the mound, whose awkward delivery (leading to an all-to-often inconsistent release point) can make it hard for opposing hitters to pick up on his low-to-mid nineties fastball. True, Locke struggled last season for Lo-A Rome, but "telecast" numbers are of relatively little consequence for A-ball hurlers (if peripherals are okay), and with 113 SO to only 38 BB, Braves officials had to have liked what they saw, at least in-part. Pirates GM Doug Littlefield certainly did.

Still, I can't help but wonder if the Pirates could have made out better in this deal. Perhaps this is just conditioning (call it the "VanBenschoten-Bullington-[Moskos?]-effect"), as i have very little faith in anything Pirates mgmt does; whatever the case, this will most certainly be better than swapping Bay for An. LaRoche, Moss and Hansen, or Nady for Olendorf, Karstens and Tabata. It's not that they got fleeced by any stretch of the imagination, but this is rather early in the season to trade a coveted asset like McLouth, especially considering he hasn't exactly been riding a hot-streak lately (or done anything of note to push his value up). Then again, the market on "CF's" isn't exactly booming right now and, pending injury, doesn't look to heat up substantially in the future--try and think of a contender who both desperately needs a CF-upgrade and has the resources to pull off such a deal. (One such team, the Mets desperately need a corner-outfielder and have plenty of money, but simply do not have the prospects to compete with Atlanta's package). And, to be fair, McLouth is no longer a center fielder; perhaps the early consummation of this deal was simply an implicit recognition of this fact by Pirates mgmt; thus dealing McLouth while his value was falsely inflated (playing essentially out of position) becomes clever and devious. Whatever the case, Littlefield has to be excited about his future outfield duo of Hernandez and recently recalled Andrew McCutcheon (more so if he manages to land a right fielder with some power (Bradon Moss: 144 AB/HR this year)). Assuming retention of the LaRoche brothers, perhaps this bat will be that of Pedro Alvarez, currently posting a .240/.344/.448 line (50 G), with 9 HR and 41 driven-in for Lynchburg of the Carolina League...is it safe to assume he'll be roaming right field in PNC next season? It hardly matters, as Pittsburgh is probably at least a few years away from contending (to break .500, that is); however it plays out, kudos to the Braves for promoting Hanson (finally); the righty will start his first game on Saturday versus the Brew Crew. Hear, hear!

On ESPN's Pedroia Priapism, Boston Bukkake Bashes and the Onset of Minnfarction Mike Fontenot Bandwagoning

2009-05-29T21:32:00.009-05:00

Contributor: Bombykol

It says a lot about ESPN's stranglehold on American sports culture that Dustin Pedroia is now a household name. Yes, he was American League R.O.Y. in 2007. Then again, so was Angel Berroa four years earlier; the former Royals shortstop has yet to attain such widespread recognition (because he's dreadfully shitty). Pedroia is a very good major league baseball player, but he is hardly alone in that regard. Fellow AL East second basemen Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, Robinson Cano and Aki Iwamura are also very good big league players; in fact, all but Iwamura have handily out-performed Pedroia in 2009. And none of them can claim to be the best second baseman in the American League--that distinction falls to Ian Kinsler. Now, this is not intended to discredit Pedroia, it is rather meant to serve as a passive-aggressive lambasting of the East Coast sports media. Pedroia does a lot of thing extremely well on a baseball field, still, players such as him come along relatively frequently. They only garner substantial accolades, however, when they happen to land in a major media market. Want evidence? A "scrappy," former Red Sox second base prospect surfaced in the National League Central several years ago, whereupon he clobbered 53 doubles, won a batting title, and recently recorded a six-hit game. If this had been Pedroia, the six hit outburst would have lead SportsCenter (and therefore superseded the Coors Light 'Six Pack of Questions' on "What's wrong with Papi?"). As it was, Freddy Sanchez's performance was little more than an afterthought...it didn't even earn comparable air-time to Jacoby Ellsbury's wholly uninteresting 12 put-out game, which any sane person would have let pass unnoticed just a few nights earlier. And then yesterday afternoon, a player bearing an even greater semblance to Pedroia had what was essentially his break-out performance in an otherwise dismal '09. He is a relative unknown, and as such, did not earn more than a mention on last night's Baseball Tonight. Still, many would be surprised to know than on a per-AB basis, Mike Fontenot nearly matched Dustin Pedroia's production during his grossly-overrated, "banner" 2008 campaign. How can this be, and how does Fontenot remain unknown outside of Wrigleyville (and Baton Rouge), owned in a measly 12.0% of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues? More importantly, why is he still fighting for at bats with the likes of Aaron Miles, Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco?

Perhaps Fontenot's platoon days are nearing an end. The 5'8" infielder (finally) showed signs of breaking out of his season-long slump yesterday, going two for three with a walk, two extra base hits and two RBI. After the game, Lou Pinella announced that Fontenot would serve as the Cubs' regular third baseman in Aramis Ramirez's absence, a long overdue opportunity for the former LSU star to get consistent at-bats and, hopefully, to jump-start his season. Assuming Fontenot does not play abhorrently in the coming days, he should rightfully assume complete control of the starting second base job once Ramirez returns; this is not to say that he will, as Pinella has used a variety of second-basemen in 2009 (including Miles (.204), Scales (.250), Blanco (.111) and former LSU double-play mate and current starting SS Ryan Theriot).

Meanwhile, in Boston, Dustin Pedroia pushed his season average to .328. The aforementioned BoSox two-bagger won the AL MVP last year with an impressive, yet hardly-unparalleled season (think '07 Jimmy Rollins lite). The East Coast media responded by collectively declaring the Red Sox second baseman a low-level deity, an unlikely love-child of Pete Rose and David Eckstein. Now, Dustin is Fenway Royalty, Bean Town's guilded grinder, a talent-starved cardiomegaliac and God's own gift to baseball clichés (and balding 24 year olds).

Yet Fontenot, playing in a similarly adoring market (sans the omnipotent media presence), managed to fly under the radar, despite Pedroia-esque production over nearly 300 PA. How can this be, with bulldogs like Jay Mariotti on the beat? Cubs fans, continue drinking away your analytical reasoning skills; the rest of you, I believe a comparison is in order. In comparing Fontenot to Pedroia, it would be nice to establish a relatively 'even' playing field (we could use per AB production, but that wouldn't be terribly enlightening outside of the comp itself). Granted, Fontenot was (almost exclusively) a platoon-player last season, which nullifies the usefulness of a straight-up multiplicative extrapolation based on PA's (Mike logged only 25 PA versus left-handers all season). Still, extrapolating out Fontenot's numbers based on his splits is not difficult, and it provides some illuminating truths in regards to his fundamental homologousness with Pedroia.

Pedroia’s 2008 PA allocation: 726 total; 545 vs. RHP, 181 vs. LHP

With this knowledge at hand, the question becomes 'how do we think Fontenot would have performed given 545 PA vs. RHP's and 181 PA vs. LHP's? And to reach a quantitative answer, all that is needed are ratios. This was as straight-forward as they come for Fontenot's production against righties, as his 259 PA's in 2008 provided an adequate sample-size for extrapolation (545/259 = 2.10x, our multiplicative factor for "counting stats"). His performance against lefties, however, required a larger number of plate-appearances than the 25 he logged in 2008 in order to guard against the prospect of random-chance anomalies. To this end, Fontenot's career splits ('07-'09) were employed, consisting of 79 PA's versus southpaws (181/79 = 2.29x).

Fontenot’s selected PA allocation: 259 PA vs. RHP (’08), 79 PA vs. LHP (career)

2008 statistics vs. RHP (in 259 PA): 222 AB, 40 R, 67 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, 32 BB, 45 SO, .302 BA, .393 OBP, .518 SLG, .308 EqA

Extrapolated 2008 performace against RHP (per 545 PA): 466 AB, 84 R, 141 H, 40 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 79 BB, 95 SO, .302 BA, .393 OBP, .518 SLG

Career statistics vs. LHP (in 79 PA): 73 AB, 11 R, 18 H, 6 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB, 21 SO, .245 BA, .305 OBP, .370 SLG

Extrapolated 2008 performance against LHP (per 181 PA): 167 AB, 25 R, 41 H, 13 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 18 RBI, 14 BB, 48 SO, .245 BA, .305 OBP, .370 SLG

We now can combine Fontenot's stats vs. righties and lefties into an integrated line for his hypothetical, 726 PA 2008 season. Below is the comparison of Pedroia's MVP season and Fontenot's expanded '08 campaign:

Pedroia (2008, over 726 PA): 653 AB, 118 R, 213 H, 54 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, 1 CS, 50 BB, 52 SO, .326 AVG, .376 OBP, .493 SLG

Fontenot (adjusted for 726 PA): 633 AB, 109 R, 182 H, 53 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 4 SB, 0 CS, 93 BB, 143 SO, .288 BA, .378 OBP, .472 SLG

(Fontenot (2008, actual numbers): 284 PA, 243 AB, 42 R, 72 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 2 SB, 0 CS, 34 BB, 51 SO, .395 OB, .514 SLG)

Thus, it becomes evident that at-bat for at-bat, Pedroia and Fontenot were very similar players in 2008. Any advantage that Pedroia had by virtue of a higher batting average (30 more hits in only 20 additional AB's), would have been essentially nullified by Fontenot's superior patience at the plate (43 additional walks). Pedroia did, however, produce better power numbers than Fontenot, but this should be taken with a giant grain of salt due to the 'Green Monster effect.' Over the course of his career, Pedroia has hit a whopping 55 points higher in Fenway, to go with a 46-point bump in on-base average, and a dizzying increase of 88 SLG% points; this is in no small part due to a ridiculous .356 BABIP in Boston (again, a staggering 61 points higher than on the road). In a more objective comparison, Pedroia grades-out as the better base-runner, although his both his '08 SB total and percentage were likely aberrational; Dustin has swiped a mere 15 bags in 218 contests held outside of the year 2008, and has been successful on only eight of twelve attempts this season.

Now, it should be noted that Fontenot, strictly a platoon player, is likely to have slightly inflated numbers against southpaws. This is because Fontenot is usually removed from the game when faced with a challenging lefty matchup. When he is allowed to stand-in, it is likely that the situation is stacked in his favor, at least to a degree. Take, for instance, a situation in which he is set to face a mediocre LH mop-up reliever (i.e. Glendon Rusch) in the eighth inning of a 12-1 blow-out, or a LH middle-reliever who has trouble getting left-handed batters out (i.e Dan Meyer); allowing Fontenot to bat in these situations increases his odds of success, as opposed to if he were forced to stand in against Pedro Feliciano. Whereas Pedroia will certainly be in the lineup to face C.C. Sabathia when the Yankees come to town, Fontenot will be a cheerleader when the Cubs square off against Johan Santana; Pedroia is thus consistently being put in a more difficult situation to succeed (at least against left-handers) than is Fontenot. It is difficult to ascertain what degree of inflation these intricacies engender, nevertheless, they are worth keeping in the back of your mind while examining the splits.

Moving on, extending the comparison to additional [select] statistics reveals further relationality between the two players:

Pedroia: .307 EqA, .336 BABIP (.328 career), .167 ISO, 120.00 RC

Fontenot: .308 EqA, .355 BABIP (.332 career), .210 ISO, 139.72 RC (adjusted for 726 PA)

Ditto the defensive statistics. Fontenot, in addition to grading out as a superior defensive second baseman, also has the versatility and arm strength to play both short and third, further increasing his value (though it should be noted that Pedroia did come up as a SS):

Pedroia: (448 A, 6 E) 10.5 UZR/150, 7.4 RngR, 2.7 ErrR

Fontenot: (143 A, 1 E) 18.1 UZR/150, 3.4 RngR, 1.4 ErrR

Again, I will explicitly reiterate that which may not be obvious: my intent here is not to minimize Dustin Pedroia's credentials as a very good, although not-quite-elite major leaguer. Rather, I'm simply attempting to uncover empirical evidence to support claims that the national media's bukakke party with the BoSox has gotten completely out of hand. This is no fault of Pedroia's, he is simply the benefactor. Nevertheless, in cities west of the Eastern Seaboard, there are many magnificent baseball players performing at extremely high levels and playing the game in a manor similar to Pedroira. Chase Utley, Dan Uggla, Freddy Sanchez, Alberto, Callaspo, Ian Kinsler, Orlando Hudson, Augie Ojeda, Mark Ellis...these guys are consummate professionals, each of them playing their respective tails off on a nightly basis, hustling out grounders, leaving their feet on defense and charging headfirst into any catcher bold enough to block the plate. And these are just a few players at one position (second)! So to Crasnik, Bryant, Shaughnassey and Co... Get your heads out of your asses, pony up sixteen dollars for a month of MLB.TV, and start channeling your inner Lewis and Clark...I guarantee as you venture west into the great unknown, you'll be pleasantly surprised with what you find.

"The Price is Wrong, Bitch": Hanson Remains in Triple-A While Dave Electrifies in St. Pete (Plus, What to do with B.J.?)

2009-05-22T21:40:00.006-05:00

Contributor: Seamus

Can we collectively agree that Tommy Hanson's ongoing presence on a minor league roster has crossed over into the realm of complete and utter absurdity? In his last start, the 22 year-old went seven strong, giving up only five hits and one earned while striking out nine (2 BB). This means that Hanson has allowed only ten earned in 60.2 innings this season (1.48 ERA), while registering 82 strikeouts (12.16 K/9) and issuing a measly 17 walks (2.52 BB/9). Not to mention his qualitative attributes, most notably, the nastiest four-pitch repertoire in the minor leagues (a few scouts have even said 'some of the best stuff in all of baseball'). Atlanta is 5-5 in their past 10 games, and currently sit 3.5 GB of division-leading New York. Call up your dynamic workhorse righty stallion prodigy, already! Jesus tapdancing Christ.

David Price, on the other hand, was promoted to 'the show' after posting a 1-4, 3.93 in 34.1 innings (Triple-A), including 35 strikeouts (9.17 per nine) and eighteen walks (4.72 per nine); he lost his first start against Cleveland, going 3.1 innings and allowing two earned, while striking out six and walking five. His second start was against the Twins, today (5/30) in Tampa; as I am typing, he has just been pulled after an impressive outing. Easily his best performance of 2009, the brawny southpaw threw 101 pitches in 5.2, fanning eleven while walking only two. Early-season reports of his velocity settling in the 91-92 mph range were either apocryphal or context-dependent, as Price routinely sat between 92 and 94 mph Saturady, and threw pitches #97 and #100 in excess of 96 mph (albiet on Fox's juiced radar gun). Perhaps Price, during his time in the minors, was focusing on generating additional movement on his fastball at the expense of velocity, with the understanding that the onus of each start was on implementation (i.e integration of a change-up, mechanical tweaks), not results. Whatever the reason, this start has to be encouraging for the Rays (although Price needs to find a way to be more economical with his pitches), and equally frustrating for Tommy Hanson, who should expect his call-up to come [yesterday].

Price, however, is not the only Rays prospect deserved of attention; Desmond Jennings, an uber-athletic center fielder for Double-A Montgomery, has been raking in the tough Southern League after having his 2008 season dismantled by injuries. Jennings is boasting an impressive .370/.438/.597 line (24 XBH, plus 16 steals) for the Biscuits, noteworthy as current Rays CF B.J. Upton continues to experience the repercussions of a rushed return from serious shoulder injury. Upton is currently posting a measly .228 EqA for the Rays, and surely will not remain in the lineup much longer if results do not improve; still, as of May 30, manager Joe Maddon has yet to drop him from the lead-off spot, let alone the lineup entirely, suggesting the Rays are still at least one step away from a benching/D.L. stint for the elder Upton brother. Nevertheless, if and when the Rays decide that this is the best course of action, would they consider promoting Jennings?

The answer, unfortunately for prospect-lovers, is no; we fans will most likely have to wait until September to see Jennings on a big league roster, with 2010 being his likely ETA as a starter. Rather, the Rays will likely apply a multitude of creative, band-aid fixes to their unsettled outfield in '09, and they certainly have enough warm bodies to produce an offensively competent three-man outfield on a nightly basis. However, with Fernando Perez out for the season (multiple knee ligament tears), no obvious defensive replacements exist for Upton in center. Carl Crawford, a tremendous athlete who was once recruited to run the point for UCLA and to man the option quarterback position for the Cornhuskers, could presumably slide over; Crawford has logged 54 career games in center over an eight year career, though he hasn't manned the middle for more than ten games in any season since 2004 (30 G). Still, this may be the most logical solution for the Rays, who have a bevy of serviceable corner outfield options, namely utilityman Ben Zobrist, (formerly elite) SS prospect Reid Brignac, the Gabes (Gross and Kapler), and current Durham Bulls masher (and former Detroit Tiger) Matt Joyce, acquired in the Edwin Jackson trade this offseason (Jackson, by the way, has 4 wins and a 2.78 ERA in '09). Joyce, who has produced a laudable .315/.408/.530 line this season in Triple-A (21 XBH), would likely be the first call-up, perhaps providing an opening for Jennings in Durham. Joyce and Gross, who are both essentially right-handed platoon players at this point, could share time with Kapler (who has hit lefties at a .313 clip since un-retiring last season), although it is likely that the promotion of Joyce would lead to the end of Gross' tenure with the team. Zobrist would thus occupy the other outfield position, and his .685 SLG in '09 indicates that he has more-than-enough brawn for the task, at least in the short-term, until Upton and/or Pat Burrell are healthy enough to contribute.

This week also saw the placement of SS Jason Bartlett and 2B Aki Iwamura on the D.L. Bartlett will return, allowing Willy Aybar to assume utility-IF duties (assuming Zobrist is relegated to an outfield spot), but Iwamura is done for the season. What this means is a time-share situation with Brignac at second base, at least until one man asserts dominance and wrestles the job from the other. And I wouldn't count on that. Defensively, the once-highly-regarded offensive SS prospect Brignac has the edge, as he has turned himself into a tremendous defensive player over the past several years. Concurrently, however, his offense has suffered, as Brignac hit only .260 (AA) and .250 (AAA) respectively over his past two minor league campaigns. Aybar, on the other hand, is a career .274 EqA hitter--not bad for a temporary 2B fix . Additionally, Aybar boasts a very good 14.1 UZR/150 at second, although this is over an inadequate sample-size of only 38 games (81 attempts). Aybar's physique screams corner infield (he is listed at 5'11", 205...nope), and his numbers at both first and third suggest he could be an above-average defender at those spots for extended periods of time. But second base is a position requiring a great-deal of lateral mobility, and for a two-sacker with a lot of meat on his bones, he doesn't exactly move like Ronnie Belliard. A platoon seems the most prudent course of action, in this regard. As for whether any of this will actually happen... I don't blame the Rays for being a little trigger shy about placing starters on the D.L. (Burrell, Kasmir, Percival, Bartlett, Iwamura). Still, Upton does not appear to be improving, and he is far too talented a hitter to attribute this to a mere slump, especially given the temporal proximity of his injury rehab to his struggles. Critics of this approach will point to his monster October as evidence that the shoulder can withstand the rigors of major league baseball, after all, he did have all offseason to rehab, the shoulder should only be stronger. In addition, Upton has improved his average by eight points over the past 15 games, while logging hits in four straight games, and eight of nine. But injuries do not always progress in an idealized fashion. And Upton's average is still only .200, hardly encouraging, especially since during this same 15-game stretch he has 23 strikeouts, including three turkeys, and only three XBH. Upton may not be aggravating his injury by playing, but a stint on the 15 day D.L. may just give him the rest he needs to reboot his season; it's sure worth a try, the Rays won't compete in the A.L. East if B.J. imitates 2008 Michael Bourn all season.

Also lighting up the prospect wire, Matt Weiters debuts tonight. And I am positively giddy. I've only seen him a handful of times, but from what I can tell, Weiters is going to be an offensive force, tall and strong with a gorgeous swing and a genuine presence at the plate. (Despite some reports to the contrary, the towering Weiters will--at least in the foreseeable future--be a more-than-competent defender in the Joe Mauer mold, though he hardly an athletic equal to the MN backstop). He carries himself with the confidence and conviction of a ten-year vet, and his swing is simple, unadorned and extremely quick through the hitting zone from the right and a left sides. More coming on the Orioles phenom in a week or two, no doubt. In addition, it appears the Cubs have finally called-up Jake Fox this week, after growing tired of his bugs-bunny offensive explosion going to waste in AAA Iowa (.424/.503/.881, 17 HR, 51 RBI in 41 games). I expect he wil play primarily third base in Aramis Ramirez's absence, with Fontenot taking over at second, however Fox could also spell Lee at his natural position of 1B, allowing Fontenot to see time at third and Aaron Miles to man second. Other notable call-ups either (a) already consummated or (b) rumored to be on the imminent horizon: Texas' Derek Holland (a), Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen (b), Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez (a) and, possibly by weeks end, the Chicago White Stockings' Gordon Beckham (b).

An Epitaph for the 2009 Chicago White Sox

2009-05-19T22:08:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Wally

Jake Peavy has rejected the proposed trade with the Chicago White Sox, and will make his next start tomorrow when the Padres take on the Cubs. I learned this news while sitting in a sports bar, surrounded by 32" HD televisions and, needless to say, I was quite distraught. Highlight reels of Peavy played on short, repeating loops, strikeout after strikeout, 93 mph two-seamers on the black followed by tightly rotating benders, knee-bucklers and fist-pumps. Breaking-news bulletins popped up every few minutes, analyst-lead roundtable discussions ensued and statements from both Peavy and his agent scrolled across the SportsCenter crawl. It was like asking a smoking hot girl out on a date, being told that she'd think about it, and then going out to eat with a bud. Right after you had placed your order, aforementioned girl simultaneously bursts onto 15 television screens until she completely surrounds you--every way you look, there she is. Topless. And dancing, all while holding up a sign that says she's getting back together with her old boyfriend, a balding 26 year-old who, though popular in high school, has spent the past six years drinking malt liquor and working at the DMV. And then, just to top it off, a guy from the bar, against whom you are competing for a promotion and a pay raise, comes over and starts beating the p*ss out of you, continuing to bludgeon you even as you roll around the floor, screaming in agony. (I apologize in advance, but there's one more piece of bad new: your boss, who was seated two tables over, was impressed by your assailant's conviction, and is leaning towards giving him the spot. Heard it through the grapevine...sorry.)

Yesterday I stated that I was teetering on the precipice of a great abyss of apathy. Well friends, today I would like to phlegmatically announce that I have taken that plunge. The 2009 Chicago White Sox will show up to "The Cell" tomorrow D.O.A. It's over, even in a muddled division. In a matter of weeks, PECOTA's 72 W projection is going to look optimistic. Again, I was blinded by my own fervor, only to have the metagrobolizing bitch of 'logic' put me right back in my place.

Anyone who knows me will guess (correctly) that this newfound indifference is a facade. No matter. Twins fans, I'm not going to give you the satisfaction of seeing me squirm for yet another year. Now that Joe Mauer has completed his transmogrification into Ted Williams, throngs of hoodwinked optimists will stream into and out of the Metrodome each night, giggling and laughing as their team sacrifice bunts and situationally hits its way to a Central Division crown (and a hasty ALDS exit). I will be left wandering the streets of Minneapolis, reciting my monody to the bums and nomads, crooning hushed epitaphs to the creatures of the night; and I will do it with the blatant overindulgence and brazen stentorianism that only 1980's power balladry can convey:

"When I was a child, I caught a fleeting glimpse, out of the corner of my eye. I turned to look, but it was gone, I cannot put my finger on it now, the child is grown, the dream is gone. I have become comfortably numb." (Gilmore)

Or maybe I'll just start rooting for the (now-Rickie Weeks-less) Milwaukee Brewers, although as I type, they're in the process of getting trounced by Mike Cuddyer and the Twins...go figure.

Returning to the defunct Peavy trade talks, at least the White Sox get to keep LH fireballer Aaron Poreda. After the debacles that were the Sox careers of Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Jon Rauch, Dan Wright and Charlie Haegar, Lance Broadway (currently unfolding) and the trading-away of promising youngsters Brandon McCarthy, Fautino De Los Santos and Gio Gonzalez (twice) at some point or another over the past several seasons, it would be nice to see a top pitching prospect have some semblance of success in the Sox rotation. And, so long as Sox mgmt isn't sold on D.J. Carasco (they're not), an empty spot will likely open up in the rotation at some point. Just promise me there will be no more Jose Contreras. Please, I've been through enough.

The Peavy deal remains on the table, and would be finalized within minutes were Peavy to waive his no-trade clause. But this doesn't seem likely; even Ken Williams, architect of the deal from Chicago's side, told reporters "we're not exactly going to wait around for him." Translation: time to start looking elsewhere for starting pitching, perhaps Cinncinati or Oakland, should their seasons' respective bottoms fall out. During the offseason, Cinncinati discussed sending Homer Bailey to Chicago in exchange for the Sox's best hitter, Jermaine Dye. Homer Bailey, once a can't miss wunderkid in the Josh Beckett mold, has begun to suffer from some serious prospect fatigue; there's only so much time a guy can remain in an organization's pipeline before fans and front office types alike begin to tire of potential, demanding instead, results. Chicago, at this point, should not be looking to move Dye for anything other than a bevy of good prospects; dealing an offensively-challenged team's most formidable threat for a "win-now" type pitcher (read: Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo) doesn't make much sense. Oakland is harder to figure, but pitchers such as the surprising Dallas Braden (ugh) and Dana Eveland may be made available for the right combination of prospects. Not exactly Jake Peavy...damn no trade clauses!

The first player in baseball to demand a no-trade clause was Andy Messersmith, in his 1975 contract re-negotiation with the Los Angeles Dodgers. (It was after owner Peter O'Malley's refusal, and Messersmith's masterful, Cy Young-winning performance in '75 without a contract, that the historic "Seitz decision" was passed down, dictating that player's were to become free agents after playing a season without a contract in place, thus nullifying the old "reserve clause.") Andy Messersmith: you sir, are a douchebag. No-trade clauses are bullshit. If you wish to earn in excess of ten million dollars annually, and the organization that is facilitating this ridiculousness deems that it is in its own best interest to move you to another team (where your salary will still be paid in full), then that's their right. Also, let's get rid of opt-out clauses; there's absolutely no reason that A-Rod needed to opt-out of a contract that would have paid him $252 million over ten seasons in order to negotiate a contract that will now pay him $275 million over a renewed ten-year period. $23 million dollars is exactly 8.3% of his current contract, or approximately what Rodriguez earned during the year 2003; this is a formidable amount of money, and a substantial raise that he certainly should have been entitled to...after the expiration of his first nauseatingly fatuous, asinine contract. And, as long as we're (vaguely) on the subject, the next time a Nick Saban or Bobby Petrino-type wishes to simply walk out on his contractual obligation (that is, coaching a goddamn sports team for tens of millions of dollars), let's give them an ultimatum(*). You have great lives, and jobs that most blue-collar workers would disembowel a kitten to land. These jobs also happen to compensate you in the top percentile of all citizens of the United States. So how about this; we'll call it the Larry Brown Law: *Honor your contract, or we will put you in jail until the time that it expires. You want to leave for the NFL, Saban. Go for it; we'll see how running LSU's football program stacks up against giving handjobs for cigarettes (my guess is 'quite unfavorably').

And so to Andy Messersmith, arbitrator Peter Seitz, Judge John Oliver, MLBPA chair Donald Fehr and uber-agent Scott Boras (and colleagues), I would like to wish upon you the contraction of non-lethal cases of dysentery H1N1: may you spend the next month on the toilet or in government quarantine, chotchbags. Also, I'd like to offer my congratulations to the White Sox on their run yesterday. Because a 20-0 loss would have been really embarrassing.

Mmm...Drown Me in the Sweet Waters of Your Envy, Twins Fans (And Cuck the Fubbies, Too)

2009-05-18T22:08:00.003-05:00

Contributor: Wally

After losing 12 of 16, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the upstart Blue Jays (in which they scored a paltry eight runs), I was preparing myself to write an epitaph for the 2009 Chicago White Sox. However, two consecutive wins against the rival Twins kept me merely toeing the precipice of beautiful indifference--that stressless, liminal void of rooting indolence and langour usually reserved for fans of the Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Twins ('71-August '87, '89-'90, '93-'00, '07) organizations. Still, I was ready to succumb at the first sign of discord, to hurl my mortal fandom into this Utopian abyss of desensitization. That is, until a heavenly chorus, under direction of archangel Peter (Gammons), lifted me from the proverbial ledge and--with tidings of Peavy--laid me softy to rest on the outfield turf of U.S. Cellular Field.

The Kenny Williams regime has a history of making "big splashes," usually front-line pitching acquisitions that have done little more than generate pre-season buzz amongst the fanbase. First was Toronto ace David Wells, the overweight, gregarious crapulent, fresh off a 20-8, 4.11 ERA (123 ERA+) season in which he logged 226.1 innings and a retro-fabulous 9 CG. Perhaps Boomer succumbed to arm fatigue in 2001, his first and only in Chicago, as he managed only a 5-7 record and 4.47 ERA in 100.2 innings. Still Wells, renowned for his "rubber arm," was back to his old tricks in 2002, winning 19 games during the first of four consecutive 200+ inning seasons...for the Yankees. (Mike Sirotka, on the other hand, was not so fortunate, as the majority of his right arm musculature had been surgically excised prior to the consummation of the initial Wells trade.) Undeterred by the events of '01, Williams returned to the phone-lines in the offseason of '02, managing to land Pirtates' ace[ish] Todd Ritchie. At the time, the shrewd move was actually lauded by pundits despite Ritchie's solid-but-unspectacular 2001 campaign in Pittsburgh (11-15, 4.47 (102 ERA+)), and a certain young boy's incessant, profanity-laced tirades to the contrary. Ritchie rewarded the confidence of scouts and prognosticators alike by delivering a 5-15 record in 23 starts, all while finding time to post a 6.06 ERA (74 ERA+) and a truly abysmal 1.706 WHIP. That was the beginning of the end for the lefty, as Ritchie mustered only an unsuccessful stint as a spot-starter for the '03 Brewers before being evacuated from the league through long-time American League sphincter Tampa Bay.

And so it came to pass that in the year 2003, White Sox management would make yet another bold maneuver, acquiring current five-starter and Buffalo Wild Wings Wall-of-Famer Bartolo Colon. Unlike Wells, endurance did not prove to be a problem for Barty, as he logged a career-high 242 innings and a Wellsian 9 complete games (including a bevy of sub-45 degree, short-sleeved, bad-assed expositions). Tenure with the team did prove to be a problem, however, as Colon departed the following off-season for Anaheim, whereupon he recorded 39 victories and a Cy Young Award before (i) breaking down, (ii) resurfacing with Boston (with noticeably reduced velocity and a noticeably more elephantine physique), and (iii) re-signing with Chicago for the 2009 season (yip-ee). Finally showing signs of discouragement, Williams' next major move was of the relatively unpublicized variety: the extension of a non-roster invitation to Mexican starter Esteban Loaiza in spring training of 2004. Loaiza, to his credit (and that of Don Cooper who, not surprisingly, added a cut-fastball to Esteban's repertoire), went on to reward the Sox with the best season of his career, a 21-9 effort, highlighted by a stellar 2.90 ERA, a career-high 207 strikeouts and a second-place finish in AL Cy Young Award balloting. Regardless, Loaiza was gone by the following season's trade deadline (9-5, 4.86), shipped to the Yankees in exchange for 59 year-old Cuban expatriate Jose Contreras, who would go on to become Chicago's de facto playoff ace in 2005. Before that could happen, however, Williams fetched himself another discount gem in '04, Seattle's former-ERA champion Freddy Garcia. Together with Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and El Duque, the quintet lead Chicago to the 2005 World Series title (with a sparkling 11-1 postseason record), their first championship in 89 years. 2005 offseason acquisition Orlando Hernandez, while not needed as a starter in the '05 playoffs, did provide the Sox with a truly iconic moment, pitching out of a no-out, bases-loaded jam in the ALDS-clinching game in hostile Fenway Park. His reward? The following off-season, he was dealt (along with CF prospect Chris Young) to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Javier Vasquez. The rest, they say, is history. And by that, I mean that my doctor has advised me not to speak of Vasquez again, as doing so would put me at high risk of supraorbital vein rupture. (In case you're interested, he's in Atlanta now, and frankly, I don't give a sh*t.)

Youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd aside (as their 'prospect sheen' had worn off far prior to each of their respective acquisitions), Jake Peavy constitutes the latest development in the Sox's ongoing search for high-profile pitching talent. Now the only question is, will he waive his full no-trade clause and green-light the deal?

Jake Peavy will earn eleven million dollars this season. He lives in San Diego, CA, where Acuweather.com projects the average temperature to be exactly 64 degrees for the next four days (until a spike to 67 on Tuesday); each day is expected to be mostly sunny, and why not? From a baseball perspective, Peavy's ERA is nearly one whole run higher away from cavernous Petco Park, and Qualcom Stadium before it. Peavy has spent his entire career with the Padres, and currently stands at 41-27 at home, with an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .219; on the road, he is 45-35 with a 3.80 ERA and a BAA of .246, still very good, but not as transcendently great as his home splits. However, things may not be as ballpark-dependent as they initially seem. Yes, Peavy's HR rate nearly doubles on the road, but more importantly (discounting balls put in play), Peavy strikes out fewer hitters and walks more on the road (9.52 K/9 @ home, 8.32 on the road; 2.59 BB/9 @ home, 3.27 BB/9 on the road). Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I'd venture to say that much of this is likely unrelated to stadium dimensions and the psychological implications/emboldenment considerations resulting from pitching half of one's games in a noted pitcher's park. Rather, other intricacies of road baseball--differing mound anatomy/slope, novel air conditions (effecting pitch break/control), hostile crowd noise, and generally less-familiar surroundings both leading up to (i.e sleep quality) and during the game--likely play prominently into this disparity, which (upon examining the sample set of all pitchers) is not uncommon, in-and-of itself. No doubt a pitcher with a career GO/AO (ground-out to air-out) ratio of 0.98, although with a respectable HR/FB of 7.6%, will be justifiably nervous committing himself to pitch in the bandbox that is "The Cell" (Derek Lowe, by comparison, has a career GO/AO ratio of 1.73, HR/FB = 7.4 %). Additionally, Peavy is a career .178 batter, .233 and .265 the past two years respectively, and has expressed (via his agent) a strong preference to remain in the National League. So will he waive the no-trade clause? The Padres are going nowhere, they have very little help in the pipeline, and their offense (save Adrian Gonzalez) is as anemic as any that has come along in the past decade. Peter Gammons has reported that a call was placed to former-Friar and current ChiSox RP Scott Linebrink, who gave a ringing endorsement of both the organization and his polarizing manager. If I had to put odds on it right now, I'd say 3:2 in favor of staying, although I hope I'm wrong. If for no other reason, than so I can say:

"Mmm, the tears of unfathomable sadness...Twins fans, your tears are so sweet and cool on my tongue...drown me in the misty waterfalls of your sorrow, yes...YESSSSSS..."

On Future Sunrises Over Event Horizons

2009-05-16T13:53:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Bombykol

According to the statistical savants at Baseball Prospectus, the Milwaukee Brewers have a 49.6% chance of making the playoffs: 30.4% as division champs, and 19.2% as the wild card. Most of these percentage points are attributable to two factors: the offense, and the golden arm (&, recently, bat) of Yovani Gallardo. The 50.4% chance they will miss the playoffs is mostly attributable to the other four arms in the Brewers rotation, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper. While Bush has been surprisingly effective this year (2-0, 3.83), Parra, Suppan and Looper all have ERA+'s below 95 (100*LG ERA/ERA), WHIP's above 1.487 and SO/BB rates below 2.0. Not exactly playoff material, especially considering that Dave Bush is essentially a league-average, .500 pitcher for his career, and he was markedly less than that last season during a strange home/road platoon with Seth McClung.

Obviously the Brewers need pitching. Badly. But after last year's trade for C.C. Sabathia, in which Matt Laporta was dealt (along with Rob Bryson, Zack Jackson and Matt Brantley), they are startlingly short on tradeable assets, at least those of the "top prospect, nearly-ready-for-the-show" variety. Two such guys, Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel, are likely untouchable, and with Bret Lawrie moving out from behind the plate (to second base), the Brewer's duo of catching prospects (Angel Salmone and Jonathan Lucroy) is unlikely to be split up anytime soon. So, to deal prospects or to play for the future? It's a conundrum, and in the balance hangs the season of the '09 Brew Crew; pretty weighty stuff for GM Doug Melvin and Co. One would assume all trade options are being pursued, yet is hamstringing the future for yet another band-aid fix really the best idea for this dynamic young group of hitters (& Gallardo)?

First, what do the Brewers have in terms of tradable assets at the big league level? J.J. Hardy is currently struggling amidst the pressures of a contract year (he signed a one-year, 4.65 million dollar deal in January); being as his contract expires after the season, teams likely won't be chomping at the bit to acquire the (expensive) services of a .696 OPS hitter whom they would only control for four more months. Likewise, Mike Cameron is in the last season of his current deal, a campaign that will net the 36 year-old ten million dollars. Unlike Hardy, however, he has rewarded the organization's commitment in him by posting a .968 OPS and a team-high 16.2 VORP through May 16. What's more, Cameron's name has been floated in trade discussions before, most prominently in off-season talks with the Yankees. The essence of these talks were more economic than strategic, however, with the Brewers looking to unload Cameron's afore-mentioned whale of a contract, and the Yankees equally ready to rid themselves of the vastly overrated Melky Cabrera (who is currently under contract for one year & 1.4 million). Recently recalled Mat Gamel may be option number three, but I wouldn't count on it; the prospect sheen is still very much on the 23 year-old third-sacker. Gamel suffered through his share of struggles in the second half of last season (likely related to a then undisclosed elbow problem), but overall he still dismantled AA pitching to the tune of .329/.395/.537 (35 2B, 7 3B, 19 HR, 96 RBI). What's more, he has parlayed that success into a monster 2009 (.336/.428/.647, 8 HR in 119 AB), and with inter-league play on the horizon, the defensive sieve has earned a call-up to serve as the team's DH in American League stadiums. The bottom line is that Gamel is just too good to give up, especially considering the team traded fellow baby-bopper LaPorta last July, and neither Hardy nor Cameron is an attractive-enough chip to land the Crew the front-line starter they so desperately need.

Assuming J.J. Hardy is firmly entrenched at short, and with Rickie Weeks finally rewarding the organization's patience at second, one would assume that the Brewers would view a young, raw middle-infielder as a tradable commodity. I've personally been slow to buy into the Alcides Escobar hype machine, although it should be noted that most industry insiders do not seem to echo this irresolution. Known for his defensive prowess, Escobar put up impressive offensive numbers last year for AA Huntsville, posing a .328/.363/.434 with 179 H (34 XBH) to go with 31 SB (81% success rate). His breakout did not carry into 2009 spring training, however, as pitchers routinely knocked the bat out of his hands with fastballs on the inner-half. Escobar is strong enough, with quick enough wrists, to handle that pitch, but he certainly needs to make some adjustments before he can be deemed big-league ready. Right now his stride is too long at the plate, causing an unnecessary amount of movement in his hands during his load-phase; all this motion culminates in a slightly long swing, though his violent cuts do showcase tremendous bat speed. And though he will likely never be a patient hitter, his pitch recognition skills leave much to be desired, as his .308 OBP this season (10 BB in 145 AB) in AAA Nashville will attest. To Escobar's credit, he does possess one of the strongest infield arms in all of baseball, and is a lanky, soft-handed defensive maestro at the shortstop position. Once he eliminates the careless errors that characteristically plague young middle infielders (see: Andrus, Elvis), he could take over Troy Tulowitzki's place as doyer of the short circuit.

If the Brewers retain Hardy at short (and with Weeks at second), Escobar could slot in at third next season. While this is a possibility, it seems more likely they would move Hardy off of short (despite his 36 RAR their last season), or simply let him walk, as Escobar is an absolute wizard at the position. Hardy could see time at third, also a good situation, which would facilitate Mat Gamel's move off the hot-corner to a corner OF spot (as his natural position of DH does not exist in the N.L.). In this scenario, Corey Hart would likely take over in CF if he is retained, or Tony Gwynn Jr. if he is not. Perhaps more logical still would be to move the defensively-challenged Weeks to the outfield. If the team retains the services of Hart in RF, this would mean moving Weeks to center field; and while he certainly has the athleticism to pull off the switch, I'd be wary putting two converted infielders next to each other in the outfield (the other, of course, being Ryan Braun). Many would likely jump to compare this harsh move to the Rays' switch of Upton from IF to center several years ago. A more apt comparison might be the long-rumored, yet never-consummated switch of Ray Durham to CF (though he did trot out to the great green pasture for one inning in 2005). The stout and muscular Weeks is much more similar to Durham athletically than he is to the lanky, graceful Upton, who frankly was born to play the outfield. Weeks was not, though despite marked improvements and impressive range, its fairly apparent that he wasn't born to play infield either. If attempted, this move would require a full offseason and spring training to pull off; nevertheless, a move to CF would free up a middle-infield spot for Escobar, with the defensive butcher that is Mat Gamel likely taking over hot corner responsibilities.

It's quite obvious, from their complete exclusion in the above scenarios, that I don't think highly of the Brewers' third base platoon of Billy Hall and Craig Counsell. While Hall is hitting a respectable .278 this year, his BABIP is a robust .338; translation, he's a .220 hitter who has been obscenely lucky in the early going, and still his production has been only slightly above average (1.9 WARP3). The ying to Hall's yang is Craig Counsell, he of World Series fame for both the Marlins ('97) and the Diamondbacks ('01). Counsell, who looks as if he's toned town his batting stance from his early, opisthotonic days, nevertheless remains a career .246 EqA hitter, 69 runs below average over the course of 4670 PA (through May 16). His BABIP in '09? .360! If these guys' seasons were any more artificial, they had might as well invest in some fake breasts. Fortunately, Milwaukee has positioned itself to simply replace the Hall/Counsell platoon once the bottom inevitably falls out. The team can survive half a season with Mat Gamel at third base, if for no other reason that to get his potent bat in the lineup. It beats the hell out of the alternative.

Assuming history doesn't repeat itself, and the Brewers don't pull off a blockbuster trade of, say, Escobar, Lucroy, Parra, and some A-ballers for Indians reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (he of Brobdingnagian overratedness), one intriguing option still exists: the de facto "retention" of Ben Sheets.

Brewers fans have the right to be skeptical of this move, as Sheets has started 30+ games just once in the past four seasons, however a healthy Sheets is still one of the most dynamic pitching talents in baseball (his ERA+'s+ the past five seasons: 162, 128, 119, 117, 139). Is a three-four month gamble on Sheets (who did go 13-9, with a 3.09 ERA and 158 K last season to go along with 5 CG) really any more risky than placing your playoff fate in the hands of Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper and Seth McClung? Obviously, this is purely speculative, and an overwhelming possibility exists that Melvin wants nothing to do with the perpetually-injured Sheets at this point in time. To complicate matters, rumors of Sheet's impending signing with the Texas Rangers have surfaced; this from the Rangers blog "Right Field Bleachers:"

"As Ben Sheets continues to recover from his most recent surgery that Milwaukee paid for, reports of Sheets sightings around Rangers facilities and rumors of what that might indicate are flowing onto baseball blogs as rapidly as menstrual blood flowed out of Big Ben’s tender and constantly sandy vagina for most of his Brewers tenure."

Manny Parra's last four starts have been pretty good (5.0+ IP, <3 ER); maybe that's the best Milwaukee will be able to do. Here's to hoping Gallardo's arm--and girly, paper-thin, brittle anterior cruciate ligaments--hold up until October 4th...he shouldn't be needing them much past then anyhow.

An Unbashed to FJM: Part II (Mathematical Anomalies, Irate Rhinoceri and Who Shot Roger?)

2009-05-15T22:18:00.012-05:00

Contributor: Wally

Stumbled upon this doosie from the May 14 edition of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, courtesy of Sid Hartman...

“As a group, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins have not reached an acceptable standard through this season's first 34 games. On Wednesday night, Perkins blew leads of 3-0 and 4-2 and left trailing 5-4 in the sixth inning against Detroit.”

Math was always one of my favorite subjects. As such, I decided to sit down and do some number crunching in regards to the previous statement. In the game of baseball, it is impossible to lose leads of 3-0 and 4-2 in the same contest. Assuming the Twins did not somehow relinquish one of their own runs during the forth or fifth inning, the fact that one team stood at two runs means the Twins must have had four, thus remaining in the lead. If, instead, he is simply referring to the size of the cushion shrinking from three runs to two, then his argument stands, although it's incredibly stupid...I've noticed that pitchers tend to give up runs at one point or another in most starts.

“The Twins bullpen was inhaling fumes through the final two months of last season. It received a boost from rookie Jose Mijares in September, but it would be a very naive organization that used a total of 10.1 innings to look at him as a guaranteed problem solver. Mark the Twins down as very naive.”

Jose Mijares was unlikely to repeat his 485 ERA+ from 2008; I'm guessing the Twins were aware of this. That said, Mijares posted a 2.21 ERA in the minors last season (Rookie, Adv-A, AA), slightly up from his 3.31 career mark, which also features sparkling HR and SO (per nine) rates of 1.0 and 10.7, respectively. Jose, one of the finest lefty specialists in the league, is likely to have a fine 2009. Certainly nothing we've seen thus far would suggest otherwise, considering he's thrown 37 pitches for the Twins this year and not allowed a run, after pitching 6.1 scoreless for AAA Rochester in April. Also, to suggest the Twins were pinning all their bullpen hopes on Mijares is incredibly naive. Nathan, Neshek, Gurreier and possibly even Crain rank ahead of him on the bullpen todom pole.

"On Febuary 9, they signed right-hander Luis Ayala. He lost a combined 10 games for the Washington Nationals and New York Mets as a reliever. The last time the Twins had a player lose that many games as a reliever was Ron Davis in 1984."

Ayala was a low-cost flier for Twins management, low risk, potentially high upside. However there was a reason Ayala was low cost: he was a very bad pitcher last year (ERA+ of 76, 1.454 WHIP, allowed 50% of inherited runners to score w/WSH). And his struggles have carried over to '09. But, as Det. Alonzo Harris astutely noted, "It's not what you know, it's what you can prove." To that end, let me offer up a multiple-choice question: Which of the following statements is/are correct?

(a) Luis Ayala did come at a discount. (b) Luis Ayala does have a career ERA of 3.54, including a run of 2.92, 2.69, 2.66, 3.19 in the four years leading up to last year. (c) Luis Ayala lost 12 games in a year when his ERA+ was 168. (d) Comparing wins and losses is a vacuous way of judging a pitcher's value. (e) Sid Hartman probably thinks Jamey Wright (8 W) was the second best set-up man in baseball in 2008. (f) All of the above.

If you answered (f), you are most likely correct. And you can mark Sid Hartman down as very naive.

(*note: The reason I did not pick the winningest relief pitcher for citation in option (e) was that Jose Arredondo lead all relievers in wins last year with 10, and he may well have been the game's best set-up man in '08. Chalk it up to coincidence (an assertion that works equally well for K-Rod's saves record last year). Also, Mike Scioscia's choice of Brian Fuentes as his closer, which I'd like to believe was based on the implicit acknowledgement of the arbitrariness of the "closer" role, was more likely a stupid miscalculation/assumption by a hugely overrated manager. Anyone who would bat Maicer Izturis third (career .375 SLG), while refusing to play Brandon Wood at all (career .901 minor-league OPS, 43 HR in '05), is not fit to manage a major league baseball team, no matter their credentials. Mike Scioscia is a big, floppy boob.)

“On Wednesday, Ayala arrived after Perkins served up a two-run home run to put the Tigers up 5-4. Ayala stumbled through the sixth

Not allowing a run...

...and the Twins promptly scored three runs to go back ahead 7-5. Inspired by the lead, Ayala charged to the mound like an enraged rhino,

Which, if he had retired the next three batters in order, would have gotten him lauded for his fiery competitiveness (see: Rocker, John, circa '98-'00)...

...gave up a walk and a double and was replaced by Matt Guerrier. Guerrier's first pitch was hammered by Miguel Cabrera for a three-run home run. He received a strike-out when umpire Paul Schreiber called out Maggilo Ordonez on an ankle-high pitch. Detroit manager Jim Leyland stormed out to tell Schrieber what a lousy job he was doing on balls and strikes...though "lousy" was a kind adjective for Schreiber's work behind the plate.”

Just as "lousy" is a kind adjective to describe Hartman's recent work behind the keyboard. I think I'd go with "vapid."

Diverging Parallelism: The Tale of Two Prospects

2009-04-30T22:44:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Seamus

As of May 16, two of baseball's elite pitching prospects have combined to start fourteen games in AAA. What's more, the two phenoms have combined for only two wins, while suffering seven losses. Still, one kid has industry types giddy, while the other has pundits from Fort Meyers to Tuscan scratching their heads. This is not to say the auspiciousness of either prospect has changed much in the past month and a half; each projects as a true #1 starter, an All-Star type who should dazzle for the next decade, perhaps longer. Still, after a quarter of the season, the campaigns of these future staff aces couldn't be more different. One, a 6'6" righty flamethrower, is sporting an ERA of 1.99 for the Gwinnett Braves, striking out 57 batters in 40.2 innings, while walking only 2.88 per nine. The other, a 6'6" southpaw sporting an equally impressive fastball, has struck out 26 in 29.1 innings for the Durham Bulls, however this comes with 16 walks and an ERA of 4.60.

In case you haven't deduced it already, the two players are RHP Tommy Hanson, a Braves farmhand who completely demolished the offense-happy AFL in 2008 (0.63 ERA, 49 K in 29.2 IP), and LHP David Price, a post-season hero despite his current banishment to minor league purgatory. They are arguably the best two ML-affiliated pitching prospects in baseball, at least until SDSU's Steven Strasburg is drafted (or until Nippon Ham Fighters' righty Yu Darvish and/or Cuba's Ardolis Chapman find their way to the United States). And the similarities between the two are striking: large, athletic frames, electric stuff, unflappable poise, ETA of 2009, etc., yet this only serves to highlight the radical difference in results these hurlers have seen in early '09. Each has a legitimate case to be a part of a big league staff right now, yet it appears that their respective teams have equally legitimate reasons for keeping them down on the farm; so what gives?

In fairness to Price, it should be noted that his pitch counts have been limited to <75. This has resulted, for better or worse, in many an opposing team simply 'waiting him out.' While this has no doubt exacerbated his control problems, Price does deserve his share of the blame for failing to get consistently ahead in counts and for being decidedly uneconomical with his pitches, that is, pitching away from contact. But is this enough to explain the minors' top pitching prospect posting an ERA above league average through a quarter of his team's games? Perhaps a foray into amateur pop-psychology is in order...

Indeed, many have done just that, positing a "let-down" effect after the resounding success Price experienced during last year's ALCS. Thus the Rays deserve lampooning for messing with the psyche and morale of their top prospect, right? Hardly. While there may be some truth to the earlier assertion, Price's control problems indicate that his transient demotion was not without merit, especially in light of his difficulty locating a slow-to-develop changeup (the mastery of which was one of the key reasons for his opening day absence in Fenway Park). The Rays deserve to be commended for this, particularly in the light of their early season struggles; Price was very effective in the high-octane, testosterone drenched ALCS deciding game, working primarily with his fastball (while mixing in a sweeping breaking pitch). This is not the Price one should expect to see over seven innings. For one thing, his fastball generally sits at 91-93 mph, a far cry from the 97+ he showed against J.D. Drew and Co. last fall. Additionally, going into last post-season, he was essentially a two-pitch pitcher--while it is not without precedent for major leaguers (esp LHP's) to succeed with only two dominant pitches (think Johan Santana (FB/change), former D-backs duo Curt Schilling (R, FB/split) and Randy Johnson (L, FB slider)), Price's repertoire is certainly not on that level yet. If he were to work out of the pen, he could absolutely get by with only two pitches. The Rays, however, are correctly adamant on starting him, and recognize that he would benefit greatly by threatening to mix in a changeup, granted he becomes comfortable enough to throw it with conviction.

The Braves, on the other hand, may be making a mistake keeping Hanson down. True, Braves currently have a team ERA of 4.00, good for forth best in the majors, and this is in no small part due to the efforts of their starters (Jurrjens 2.06, Vasquez 3.71, Lowe 3.80). However Kawakami has been less than impressive as the four starter, posting a 5.79 ERA, and Jo Jo Reyes has been exponentially worse in the five spot (6.58, 20 K:12 BB in 26 IP). Prior to the Mets posting an 8-2 record over their past ten, each of the top four teams in the NL East was mired in a state of dreadful mediocrity. Even now, with the Met's starting rotation (2-5) as unsettled as ever, Phillies pitchers giving up longballs at a record pace and Florida experiencing a serious swoon after a gang-busters start, the NL East is completely winnable. Atlanta is a mere two games back , one game over .500; with Hanson banging down the Turner Field doors, the Braves may have found the X-factor they need (see: 2006 post-AS Break MN Twins, Frankie Liriano).

Hanson sits in the low-to-mid nineties with the fastball, a pitch that he buries in on the hands of righties. In addition, he features a filthy slider with good depth, a 'plus' overhand curveball, and a straight change that scouts view as improving. He knows how to use his big frame to his advantage, both to generate velocity and to hide the ball during his delivery. Yet despite his seeming readiness, don't expect to see Hanson with the big league club for at least the next couple weeks. In fact, June 1 is likely the earliest he could make his debut, with the possibility existing that the team will wait until after the All-Star break to make the call-up. All this is circumstantial, of course; if the Braves are winning and remain within striking distance of the NL East frontrunner in the coming weeks (while continuing to get subpar production from the back-end of their rotation), the call may come earlier than expected. Conversely, if the Braves suffer a swoon in the coming weeks and club officials become leery of the team's potential to make a post-season splash in '09, they might view additional development time as advantageous to the future of the franchise. With uber-prospect Jason Heyward (OF), as well as fellow minor league starters Cole Rohrbough and Jeff Locke in the pipeline, its easy to be bullish on the Braves' future; this conservative approach may in fact represent the most likely scenario for Hanson and the team this season.

(note: With the call-up of Hanson's AAA staff-mate Kris Medlen on Saturday, a former reliever who dominated down the stretch for AA Mississippi last year after a rocky start, its become increasingly clear that the Braves are in no rush to graduate their top talent to the major league ranks just yet.)

Time to Send Carlos Gomez Down

2009-04-19T22:22:00.005-05:00

Contributor: Migs

Two stubborn decisions cost the Twins the AL Central crown last season. One was the prolonged demotion of Fransico Liriano following some early-season hiccups in his comeback from Tommy-John surgery. In lieu of Liriano, who was busy dominating his AAA competition (to the tune of a 10-2 record, 3.28 ERA and 113 K in 118.2 innings), the Twins were riding the Livan Hernandez express to an early offseason. Livan did "earn" ten victories (versus eight losses), but his peripheral stats were abominable; a 5.48 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and only 3.5 K/9. Liriano's AAA tune-up could easily have been cut in half; this, in concert with the release of Livan Hernandez (which happened anyways, though far too late in the season) would have certainly resulted in the Twins gaining the game of separation needed to edge the White Sox in the AL Central (in case you don't remember, they ended in a 89 W tie, forcing a one-game play-in in Chicago, which the Sox took 1-0 on a Thome moon shot).

The second decision that ultimately cost the Twins the playoffs was leaving Carlos Gomez in the lineup for the entirety of the season. Perhaps even worse than his extended stay in the lineup was his extended stay in the leadoff spot (.298 OPS), which he occupied during the early part of the year, prior to the Denard Span explosion. "Go-go" repaid the organizations faith in him by posting a .686 OPS in 577 AB's, and displaying questionable timing and marginal effectiveness as a base-stealer (75 SB%, 10% below the elusive "effective" SB% threshold). Gomez's EqA was a paltry .243 adjusted for the season, and his BRAA (batting runs above average, the # of runs better than a hitter w/a .260 EqA, given the same number of outs) was -12. And all this time, Jason Kubel (perhaps the Twins' third-best hitter, .284 EqA) was receiving inconsistent playing time at best.

In fairness to Gomez, he did grade out as the second-best defensive outfielder in the game, trailing only Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, by posted a 116 Zone Rating (16 runs above average) last year. In fact, when considering purely defensive contributions, Gomez was a very effective player last season (the only caveat being questionable decision making, leading to a high number of errors and ill-advised throws). In this way, he was integral to the surprising success of the Twins' young starting rotation. However, the Twins were not without another stellar defensive option in CF, Denard Span (who was manning a right-field spot that could have easily been handled by Kubel and, when healthy, Cudyer).

Its hard to buy the argument that the Twins were playing to win in 2008 by starting a player with a sub-.300 OBP. Rather, the company line will be that Gomez was taking the proverbial lumps, developing as a player and maturing as a person in the major leagues. Equally likely was that Twins management wanted quick returns on what many industry insiders considered a disappointing haul for Johan Santana, especially in light of the names that had been thrown around early in the process (Hughes, Lester, Ellsbury). From a player development perspective, playing 2008 in the results-based major leagues, even through long periods of offensive ineptitude, likely hindered Gomez's development, compared to what he should have been able to accomplish in double or triple-A. Further, adding another offensive black hole to a team that (at one point or another) featured Nick Punto, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe, Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher was something that the Twins could ill afford, especially when it took AB's away from Jason Kubel and fellow offensive savant Delmon Young.

This season, Gomez is off to a terrible start. And not just in the batters box, where he is currently hitting .103 (3 for 29, with 2 XBH). Gomez started off spring training by stating his desire to become a middle-of-the-order bat, a thirty home-run corner outfield type, essentially nullifying all of his most positive attributes as a baseball player. He backed up this claim by reporting to camp noticeably thicker in the midsection and legs; make no mistake, the added weight was muscle, but early returns are not good. Gomez appears to have lost some of the eye-popping explosiveness he displayed last season, especially when initially leaving the batters box. Additionally, this extra mass has not resulted in additional power. After posting a .360 SLG last year, squaring up the baseball certainly should have been an emphasis, however adding more loft to what was already an uppercut swing was clearly not the solution the Twins were hoping for, nor has it worked in the early-going (.207 SLG in '09).

To be fair, because of his defensive contributions, Gomez will remain an adequate player this season. Last year he was eight runs above replacement level offensively (BRAR) and a robust forty runs defensively (RAR). This dwarfed that of Delmon Young, 25 BRAR offensively while being essentially neutral defensively vs. a replacement (1 RAR), equating to approximately ten runs below average (-10 RAA). 46>>26, especially at a premium defensive position. (Perhaps a better way to read this is that Young is one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors, but with enough speed around him, he may be able to be hidden.) Additionally, Young played LF, downplaying his best defensive attribute, an 75-80 arm, which plays best in right. Denard Span occupied this right field spot, where he was 38 RAR (along with 30 BRAR), making him by far the most valuable asset in the Twins outfield. A highlight machine, Span's defensive productivity still compares very favorably to Gomez's. With Gardenhire seemingly intent on Michael Cuddyer manning right (and batting third or forth in Mauer's absence), and Delmon Young (LF) in need of AB's, Gomez's demotion would clear up the OF situation in the short-term.

Based on a purely statistical analysis, one might suggest that it is Young, not Gomez, who should be optioned to AAA. Delmon and Carlos are essentially the same age, but Young has an additional year of service time in the majors and, unlike Gomez, has very little left to prove at the minor league level (career .880 OPS). Additionally, Delmon Young was the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, a testament to his otherworldly natural gifts, and possesses the frame and brute strength to hit 20-25 HR from the right side of the plate (important to balance the left-handed power contributions of Mauer, Morneau and Kubel). His approach at the plate was no doubt broken last year (though he has finally resolved to pull the ball this season), and some have wondered whether he has a fundamental pitch-recognition problem. Nevertheless, at this point in time, he is closer to becoming a competent offensive performer than Gomez, especially as Gomez remains mired in a disturbing liminal state, uncertain of whether he is a speedster or a burgeoning power hitter. A month, maybe two, in a low pressure environment should help him sort out some of the problems that have arisen in the past year, and get him back on track to becoming the star his talent suggests he can be.

Cubans and Bulldogs (Clusterf*ckin' up the Middle)

2009-04-08T22:26:00.003-05:00

Contributor: Wally

A new idea to address the Chi-Sox centerfield woes, courtesy of Jim Callis (Baseball America): Carlos Quentin moves to centerfield around mid-season, making way for Dayan Viciedo in left. Certainly beats the upside of the current Brian Anderson/Brent Lillibridge CF platoon (Dewayne Wise, labrum: 6-8 wks, expected to still be terrible following healing period). Plus, Scotty Podds is back on the 40-man roster, and no Palehose fan in their right mind wants to see him (or Jerry Owens) manning a starting outfield spot in 2009.

Assuming Dayan isn't ready by midseason, I'm prepared with another solution, involving top prospect Gordon Beckham. Now, assuming Beckham's readiness may be an exercise in futile optimism, nevertheless, the comparisons to Evan Longoria are as astute as they are inevitable. (So long as they are tempered; unfortunately, they rest on the eye-test criteria..."that guy just looks like a ballplayer," but I digress...). Gordon Beckham is a competent defensive shortstop--once deemed ready, he can and should slot into that position immediately. Unfortunately, that leaves the second base clusterfuck intact, with Chris Getz, Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix duking it out for one starting gig. I'll make the (generous) assumption that at least one of these players displays mild competency, providing a stop-gap for the remainder of 2009. Center field is thus open for Alexei Ramirez. In fact, this option may be preferable, as talent evaluators believe the Cuban Missile would make a Gold-Glove caliber outfielder (think B.J. Upton lite). True, the Gold Glove award has become comparable to the Grammy, that is, an unabashed popularity concert rewarding largely shitty performances (see: McClouth, Jeter, Evanescence, Stadium Arcadium, etc.), regardless, the central point stands...Viciedo/Beckham > Wise/Anderson/Podsednik, and it ain't even close, folks.

Dewayne Wise...Really? (On the Role of the 2-Hitter)

2009-03-30T22:26:00.001-05:00

Contributor: Wally

It looks like the Chicago White Sox will go into the season with Dewayne Wise hitting leadoff. Which begs the question, what in sweet chocolate fuck is Ozzie thinking? Dewayne Wise is a 31 year-old outfielder with a career .254 OBP. Career!!! Two things can be gleaned from that last sentence: (1) Dewayne Wise is not a major league caliber hitter. Not in the leadoff spot, not in the nine-hole, not off the bench for the 2009 Padres. Nowhere. (2) He has zero upside. You know what they call a 31 year-old prospect? Exactly, they don't. Late-bloomers blossom at 24-27, maybe a few years older during the steroid ear (which I'm going to continue to refer to as if it's completely over). Regardless, 31 and 27. Zero upside.

But fear not, there must be a backup plan, right? Enter Chris Getz. He of a .381 career SLG in the minors; that probably translates to a good .310 slugging in the bigs. But on the bright side, he did get on base at a .361 clip, 40 pts higher than recently optioned Jerry Owens (27) managed in his major league career (past tense intentional...it's over Jer).

The painful thing isn't just that Ozzie's actually going to run this lineup out there, at least until the offense goes up in a spectacular fireball around mid-April. It's that the solution is obvious, and it doesn't even require a personnel move. The important thing to remember is that lineups aren't linear entities, that's a just a mental schema, nothing more. A more accurate way of visualizing them is as circular and continuous. After the first inning, who occupies in the leadoff spot is largely irrelevant; the relationships that matter are defined by proximity, a player's position relative to other players in the batting continuum. This is absolutely not the same thing as one's position relative to the arbitrary "top" of the order, because the order turns over every nine hitters. Consider the following...

1. Ramirez

2. Quentin

3. Dye

4. Thome

5. Konerko

6. Pierzynski

7. Fields

8. Getz

9. Wise

After inning number one, batting Wise ninth and slotting everyone else up one spot has no effect on the order. It's exactly the same, except, over the course of the 162 game season, a whole lot of Wise/Getz AB's are now going to Alexei Ramirez (or Josh Fields, whoever ends up slotting into the conventional 2-hole), Carlos Quentin, JD, Jim Thome and even Paul Konerko and A.j. Pierzynski.

As for Alexei or Josh hitting leadoff: they're obviously not ideal options. Consider, however, if Ramirez merely duplicates his .317 OBP from his rookie season of 2008, that's still 63 points higher than Wise's career OBP. And after the frigid April/early-May last year (Alexei was hitting only .143 through May 15), it is not unreasonable to expect a 15-25 point improvement in this number; still, that puts him in the ~.330-345 OBP-range, not exactly "Moneyball" stuff, but more-or-less in line with frequent comp Alfonso Soriano, and thus sufficient in lieu of a better leadoff option. (Fields, by the way, had a .305 OBP in his breakout 23 HR partial-season (2007), and a career .359 OBP in the minors.)

I'm not alone in the belief that a team's best hitter should be in the two-hole, the great Keith Law has pointed it out on numerous occasions. Granted, it doesn't work for every team, but consider the NY Mets, MN Twins and TX Rangers.

1. Reyes, ss Span, cf Young, 3b

2. Wright, 3b Mauer, c Kinsler, 2b

3. Beltran, cf Morneau, 1b Hamilton, rf

4. Delgado, 1b Cuddyer, rf Blalock, dh

5. Sheffield, lf Kubel, dh Cruz, lf

6. Murphy, rf Crede, 3b Byrd, cf

7. Santos, c Young, lf Davis, 1b

8. Castillo, 2b Harris, 2b Salty, c

9. (Pitcher...) Casilla, ss Andrus, ss

Do these teams really need the extra PA's (+120/year over the #9 hitter) going to the likes of Dewayne Wise/Chris Getz (CHW), Luis Castillo/Daniel Murphy (NYM), Alexi Casilla/Brendan Harris (MIN) or Elvis Andrus/Omar Visquel (TEX)? That's a rhetorical question. To you and I, that is...apparently not to Oz, Jer, Gardy and Wash. Traditional thinking has again hamstrung conclusions that can be reached through simple arithmetic. Spread the word.

Scombrotoxic Emo Poisoning

2009-03-05T22:35:00.009-06:00

Contributor: Migs

I love The Oceanaire Seafood Room. I don't like scombrotoxic fish poisoning. And I love 89.3 FM, 'The Current.'

Why is this pertinent? While I know my favorite seafood restaurant is wholly capable of leaving me with projectile diarrhea, rash, flushing, sweating and splitting headfuck, it does little to curb my desire to eat there. Likewise, every now and then, 89.3 plays a song by Death Cab for Cutie. Is it enough to deter me from listening? No, but it's about as fun as a barbed-wire catheter.

“Your heart is a river, that flows through your chest, through every organ. Your brain is the dam, and I am the fish, who can’t reach the core.”

That is an actual lyric—go ahead and do a web search. First time I heard it, I felt that I'd been sodomized by his words. For the rest of the song, I clenched my asshole tighter than A-Rod in a playoff at-bat.

If I wanted to hear lyrics that sound as if they’re plagiarized from a Raffi B-side, I wouldn’t dial up a Seattle emo quartet. I’d just stay at home, run myself a hot bath, put on my Baby Beluga video cassette from when I was five years old, and pull the VCR into the tub with me.

The Sweetest Home Run Swings of My Baseball Viewing Life (Sans Links)

2009-03-01T17:10:00.005-06:00

Contributor: Wally, Seamus, Athos

*When this was written (and posted on our previous server), it was literally inundated with links. Photographs, video clips, random media...it was an ambitious undertaking. As I (re)post this, all of the original links are gone; I would love to put them back up, but that's gonna require more free time than I currently have; my apologies (blame Gary Busey). In the meantime, I still stand behind this list with the nostalgic fervor of a hundred Tim McCarvers...

I realize that recently we've been making more lists than atwelve-year-old girl with OCD. Still, I am to lists what Michael J. Fox is to shakinguncontrollably...so deal with it. This one is about the "big fly," more specifically, thetechniques with which they are produced, the impressiveness of the ball'sflight patterns, and the reactions generated from both from the player and theonlookers (most notably, me). Inorder to simplify matters, hyperlinks to videos are designated with anasterisk* immediately following the link. Don't read into this symbology, as the post is wittingly littered withtiny stars. Without further adieu,the crunchiest home run swings of my baseball-viewing life...

***The 'Every Single Asian Player' Division (also "TheHong-Chih Kuo Memorial Bat Flip Division")***

Ichiro Suzuki*, Hideki Matsui*, Kosuke Fukudome*, KenjiJohjima*, Suichi Murata (JPN), Seiichi Uchikawa (JPN), Tad Iguchi, TsuyoshiShinjo

I very much enjoy the homologous way in which nearly allJapanese players swing the bat, especially the left-handed ones. Although it is certainly not withoutprecedent to move around in the box while swinging (in fact, I've noticed eventhe resurgent Scotty Podsednik has been tinkering with it in recent days), sucha 'softball slap-swing-esque' approach appears to be relatively exclusive toour Pacific Rim friends. Best ofall, generating momentum by hurling one's entire body out of the box isextremely conducive to a variety of nauseatingly awesome bat-flips (the king ofwhich remains former Mets and Giants outfielder Tsuyoshi Shinjo, oddly enough,a right hander). We can only hopethat Japan begins pumping out a plethora of "true" power bats in thefuture (a la Matsui and Murada), so we can start seeing the lumber acrobaticson more than just flare singles.

***The Met-RX Torque Division***

Butch Huskey

Robert Leon "Butch" Huskey logged 83 home runsover a seven year career, never hitting more than 24 in a season ('97,NYM). Still, what discourse on thenineties' most torquelicious hackers would be complete without him? The metasthenic Huskey boasted a swingthat could only be described as sadistic, a siderating attempt to disembowelthe baseball and leave it's entrails strewn across the pitcher's mound a laBenny "The Jet" Rodriguez."

Mo Vaughn

It's truly uncanny how similar the Boston careers of the HitDog and the Cookie Monster (i.e. Big Papi) have been. Ortiz's peak, which lasted approximately five seasons, wassuperior to Vaughn's (with Papi averaging a .611 SLG from '03-'07, while Vaughn,from '94 to '98, managed "only" a .577 clip). Yet there is no question as to who hadthe bigger, badder swing. Big Mo'scuts packed a pulverizing wallop; a coldcock and a curb-stomp rolled into one,each hack a diabolical 'chicken in a blanket' of pitiless ball drubbing. And let's not forget the trademarkscowl of bowel incontinence that first endeared Vaughn to us all, and gave menightmares until I was sixteen.

Jeff Bagwell

I'm almost certain that Bagwell is the only player on thislist who stepped backwards during his load-phase (planting his foot at thatposition for the remainder of his swing). He is also, unfortunately, only the second-best first baseman born onMay 22, 1968 to have won a league MVP award in 1994, only to later appear on thislist.

Geoff Jenkins/Jeremy Burnitz

I once had a coach tell me, "you can't swing too hard,you can only swing out of control." I've gone back and forth on whether or not I agree with that. Aside from Gary Sheffield and RickieWeeks, I've never heard of anyone consciously attempting to slow theirswing. And in all honestly, Shefand Weeksie's comments are probably more autofellatic than anything...I'mpretty sure their respective bat waggles are not explicitly designed to lowerbat speed.

Additionally, hitters can swing "out of control"without necessarily "overswinging;" take for instance a batter whoallows his hips to fly open before the ball enters the hitting zone, perhaps inan attempt to pull the ball and increase his power. (Come to mention it, Jeremy Burnitz dabbled in both.) Perhaps as a maxim my coach's sayinghas some truth to it. Then again,outliers exist for each and every aphorism and, as entertaining as it was,these two lummoxes were almost certainly swinging wayyy too fucking hard*.

Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun

The rightful successors to the Jenknitz (Burnkins?)oleaginous contingent. However, itis Prince who is the heir apparent* to the Milwaukee Chapter of the 'PaulBunyan Sweaty-Man Overexertion Club.' This, of course, does not refer to his voracity for conditioning (nor,any longer, for seared flesh) but rather his Brobdingnagian "F@#KYOU" follow-through. Histeammate, Ryan Braun, boasts a quite prodigious cut* himself (extra points forpost-contact loitering in the batter's box), and together they constitute themost malicious 1-2 punch of two-handed follow-throughs in the game.

Carlos Pena

Easily the best lean-back swing* on the list, handilydispatching of Jenkins, and the adipose duo of Fielder and Vaughn.

Justin Upton

This is unequivocally my favorite* home run swing* and, tobe perfectly frank, nobody else is even in the conversation. The love affair began last August*, andcontinued despite Upton's up-and-down 2008 campaign (another video link*...it'san extravaganza!). Upton is listedat 6'2", though after adjusting for fabrications, he is more likely6'1"...in cleats. Nevertheless, the younger Upton's hack is the very definition oftorque*; only 21, and thus with Griffey Jr. comparisons abound, we may well belooking at a burgeoning 30-40 home run* guy, perhaps as soon as thisseason. Sporting a sexy .328 EqA(.346/.415/.636, .290 ISO) to go with 25 XBH, Upton needs only improve his K%(which sits at an unsettling 30.7% career, 27.2% in '09) to become a consistentAll-Star caliber performer, and possibly even a 400-500 HR man.

Honorable Mention:Hank Blalock*, Billy Butler*, Jose Guillen*

***The Smoove Divison***

John Olerud

As he is a member of the relatively exclusive '500 doublesclub,' it's sometimes easy to forget that Olerud pounded out 255 home runsduring his distinguished 15-year career. Or perhaps his underratedness is an implicit refusal of one's cerebralcortex to acknowledge a man sporting this headgear as a "powerhitter."

Fred McGriff

Tom Emanski pitchman Fred "Crime Dog" McGriffboasted perhaps the only true "helicopter swing" of our generation(though Delgado, A-Rod, Berkman, Morneau and others would later dabble). What a complete and total bad ass. He would fit right into the forthcoming'bad-ass' division if he wasn't as velvety smooth as Alyssa Milano's midriff,covered in banana daiquiri.

Bernie Williams (left-handed)

As smooth as he was as a ball-player, he may be evensmoother as Blues guitarist. Notto be a complete and total whore, but his new album, "MovingForward," is pretty damn nuanced and accomplished for an ex-jock...Ienjoyed it a whole lot.

Shawn Green

As far as level, sweeping strokes go, they don't come muchsmoother than the [original] Hebrew Hammer's (fuck off, Shamsky). Shawn Green was always one of myfavorite players, a fact that I'm proud of in retrospect, given his steadyphysical deterioration and performance declines during hisearly-to-mid-thirties. So this ishow a power hitter is supposed to age! In the early 2000's, an era of lightning quick, larger-than-life steroidgoons manning corner outfield spots, Green was a lanky, rifle-armed natural inthe Bob Allison mold, though indisputably superior to Allison in almost everyfacet, save for his glove work. When I watched Shawn Green during his Dodgers days, I couldn't help butthink that 'this is what it must have been like to watch Del Ennis or Allisonin their respective primes' (or at least my romanticized versions of them);perhaps even a lesser Joe Dimaggio. Dimaggio, one of the greatest center fielders of all time, is obviouslya major stretch, as Green's batting average exceeded .300 just once in hiscareer. Still, both Dimaggio andGreen were the purest of talents, with exemplary swings, loping strides and aquiet, understated dignity; each man demanded veneration without exuding even ahint of egotism. Kvell,alrightnik.

Adam LaRoche

It's truly flabbergasting that with his mammoth hitchLaRoche can even catch up to a plus big-league fastball. He has scaled that baby down a bit thisyear, in hopes of becoming more consistent (LaRoche is one the league's mostnotorious "streak" hitters), fortunately, when the Pirates firstsacker squares one up with his arms extended, there still is no prettier orsmoother* stroke in all the land.

Chase Utley

When Utley is swingin', I am reduced to regurgitatingsuperlatives like an imbecilic bletherskate with a man-crush. Quick*. Abbreviated. Breme. Estival. Velocious*. Buyahkasha.

Honorable Mention:Tino Martinez, Raul Ibanez*, Bobby Abreu*, Garret Anderson, Carlos Beltran*(right-handed), Lance Berkman* (left-handed)

***The Tony Pena Memorial Bat Flip Division***

The Boone's (Bret and Aaron)

First of all, I'd just like to say fuck Bret Boone. Aaron*, on the other hand, I have noproblem with, despite his historic walk-off* (Timmy Wakefield) that propelledthe Yankees to the '03 W.S. Hedidn't want to go to New York in the first place...the press-conference tearsupon leaving Cincinnati were of the rarest variety in sports: legitimate. Still, Bret can go fuck some livestock for all I care. Is he the most offensively blatantP.E.D. offender of the mid-00's? Bret showed up to Mariners camp in 2001 looking like a goddamn water buffalo, prompting teammates to jokingly call him "The Hulk." Bret, to his credit, would always laughgood-naturedly at such backhanded accusations...before turning flush red,calmly removing his sunglasses and crushing the life out of everyone in hisproximity.

Vladimir Guerrero (Expos)

Probably belongs in the torque division, but Vladie had apretty cool bat flip workin' during his exile in Canada. It was more-or-less gone by the time hereached Cali, but the swing remained as entertaining as ever*, mostly becausehe had/has absolutely no idea when to lay off a pitch. In fact, legend has it that Guerrerotook a bouncing fastball over the center field fence during his time inMontreal's minor league system. (I'm pretty sure this particular swing did not result in a home run, butimagine how cool it would have been if it had...) Vlad is also a rare case-study in indiscretion, swingingboth way too hard and completely out of control! Perhaps the forth-best right-handed hitter in anoffensively-stacked era (Pujols, Ramirez, Rodriguez), and the only with anair-tight case against steroid use (sorry Al), Vlady was born tohit...eye-level sliders.

Alfonso Soriano

Incredibly quick wrists, a chic, one-handed follow-through*and, of course, the trademark nonchalant bat flip* make Soriano one of thecoolest customers in today's game. It's too bad he's a Cub, and is therefore destined to never win anythingsubstantial, gradually accumulating resentments as his annual salary increaseswhilst his performance decreases (he will be 38 when his current $136 millioncontract expires).

Torii Hunter

In my formative middle school years I modeled my swing, nay,my entire plate approach, after Torii Hunter's (who I was lucky enough to meetin the summer of my sixth grade year...delightful, magnanimous guy). Moral of the story? I struck out...a lot. Still, there were occasions when I hitthe ball, my chest puffed out like a giant gorilla, arms extended above my leftshoulder, shiny aluminum bat wrapped around my head. And boy, did those balls fly. Perhaps more importantly, assuming such a position isessentially an act in "priming" oneself for a killer bat toss, either(1) to one's right, when the ball is in play (and time is at a premium), or (2)to one's left, when that bitch is looong* gone.

David Ortiz/Carlos Delgado

Two isolated bat flips earned these gentlemen spots on thelist.

The first was Delgado's recalcitrant sling, following hisforth home run (in a single contest) versus Tampa Bay. I'm convinced it was one of the finestoverhand bat throws in baseball history. In fact, I can't even remember another. (Now with the Mets...still a brute*...)

Oritz's flip came in the '06 WBC, in the ninth inning of a6-5 game vs. rival Venezuela. After launching a Carlos Hernandez offering 850 feet to right field forhis second* homer of the game, Ortiz executed possibly the coolest bat-flip ofall time, immediately turning to his teammates in the third-base dugout,flinging the bat defiantly (and underhandedly) toward them, giving a Mr. Tgrunting scowl, and lumbering out of the box. The image of that gyrating Nokona, which has been foreverburned into my mind, legitimized the inaugural WBC by itself, along withprobably two or three more to come...it was that freaking cool. Fans of the (former) slugger know thatthis was not without precedent, as Ortiz already had several pretty kick-assbat flips to his name. Unfortunately, it's beginning to look like we may have seen the lasttoss 'n scowl*, unless Papi begins performing them for opposite-field singles.

Honorable Mention:Yunel Escobar (bat flip distance* king), Derek Jeter (for perfection of angrylittle bat throw*)

"The Ulf Hreda Bad-Ass Division"

Rickey Henderson

The most self-assured swing in the history of pro baseball,complete with an unabashed crouch-walk, head nod, bat flip and hop step. Speaks for itself, really. More interesting than his swing,however, is what it (and his other antics) did for Hendersonpost-retirement. What I mean bythis is although Rickey will be inducted into the H.O.F. this summer, he failedto receive the honor of unanimous election. While the reasons for this are blatantly obvious (seeabove), it still calls into question the legitimacy of the voting panel atlarge that any one of them didn't vote for the greatest leadoff man of alltime. To this date, nobody hasreceived unanimity. This iscompletely and utterly ridiculous, especially since the bar has dipped so lowfor induction in some cases (see: Rice, Jim (2008); and earlier, Bancroft,Beckley, Faber, etc...). Don'ttell me that Rick Farrell can be a Hall of Famer but still there is no one whoperformed well enough to convince all panelists that he should immediately jointhe underwhelming catcher in Cooperstown--this is confoundingridiculousness. And I will beabsolutely flabbergasted if Greg Maddux does not earn this dubious distinctionwhen he first becomes eligible. Who could find even the semblance of justification for leaving him offtheir ballot?

Dmitri Young

It's hard to believe Dmitri can be such a bad ass while hisbrother Del remains such a gigantic, whimpering pussy. Move over Matt Bush, we've got a newgold standard for first overall pick busts. Forget that Bush never really cracked the majors (as ashortstop or later, a pitcher reincarnate); not only did Delmon Young providethe Devil Rays with one of the single worst PR scandals in the history of MiLB(the infamous bat-throwing incident), but he also cost his new team, the Twins,both Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett, in addition to a hoard of AB's that shouldhave gone elsewhere. Maybe theperformance of the Young's is tied in directly with the contraction of diabetesmellitus; I've noticed Del has gotten substantially chubbier lately, perhaps hestumbled upon this realization sooner than the rest of us. Or perhaps he simply does not have thatspecial something that makes Dmitri so special to all connoisseurs of swing(namely, the "meat hook").

Ronnie Belliard

Belliard's home run swing* is so awesome you'd swear he'ddone it more than 103 times in his major league career. I'm guessing he was one of those kidsin little league/high school for whom the game was way too easy, recognized it,and enjoyed it far too much. Heprobably stood at home plate after launching a moon-shot and, while waiting forthe ball to land, removed both batting gloves (and his designer sunglasses,skull cap and protective cup) before rounding the bases on a razor scooter.

Milton Bradley

Milton no longer unstraps both of his batting gloves beforeexiting the batter's box on big flies. That's a shame. (Yet stillhe be smoover* than a fool* in a swimming pool.)

Honorable Mention:Matt Lawton, Edgar Martinez (that's right), Ryan Howard* (for that little15-degree (post-contact) hip-locked body rotation), Yoennes Cespedes (Cuba)

"The Bannanabolic Blast Division"

David Justice

To be perfectly honest, this is based on something I canonly vaguely remember seeing Justice do a handful of times, and only during hisYankees days. Upon completion ofhis follow-through (assuming he executed the rare two-handed variety),Justice's bat came to rest on his back. Then, he would simply release it, thus not hauling it back over hisshoulders to the front part of his body, as is customary. This bluster would not work for everyone,but the lanky, athletic Justice actually pulled it off, and managed to lookpretty damn cool in the process. He must've been doing something right, anyways.

Dante Bichette

During my childhood, I spent more time trying to duplicateDante Bichette's 'bat spike' than I did any other aspect of a professionalballplayer's game; that includes Junior's swing (complete with a bat slam ofhis own), Rocket's heater, Sammy's gay little hop, Jeter's jump-throw,Strawberry's cocaine addiction...anything. And I could never do it; how the fuck could he throw the batto the ground so hard and not have it bounce up, ricochet sideways, or transferits kinetic energy in any way whatsoever? (Note, in the previous link, the complete absence of a bat...it is mostlikely resting just out of frame to the bottom.) Time and again, without fail, the damn thing would hit theground, ~~fall limper than Gary Busey's penis~~, and lie there motionless. Good luck attempting to replicate asituation where the laws of physics are being so blatantly pissed on. (Perhaps if one were to hurl an infant,covered in Superglu, at a wall caked in molasses...?). Returning to the issue at hand, add amystifyingly sublime bat spike to the ebullient little Piggly Wiggly hop-stepthat followed it, and you have yourself one hell of a home run swing. Respect.

Glenallen Hill

The former Cub and current Rockies first base coach, whoseoutfield defense was once described as "akin to watching a gaffed haddocksurface for air" (by Bryan Price, former Mariners pitching coach), hit theonly home run* ever to reach the roof of the five-story apartment buildingacross the street from Wrigley Field's left field wall. Featuring an abbreviated (and slightlyackward) "wood-chop" swing, not unlike that of former-Twins greatRondell White, Hill produced massive power with his savage, mesomorphic armsand chemoterrific upper body.

Rafael Palmeiro

Before turning himself into a caricature, Raffy Palmeiro hada stroke that could compete with LaRoche's in terms of pure aesthetics. Make no mistake, it was a much better,more compact and more powerful swing than LaRoche's...nevertheless, I saw histestimony before congress, and I quite frankly refuse to get over it. Maybe in retrospect he should've takenthe Sammy Sosa defense. You know,the "I've suddenly forgotten how to speak English despite conducting20,000 nationally-televised English language interviews during the summer of'98" one. On a related note,Palmeiro and Sosa provided some of the most tragically comedic moments in allof the steroids era, not the least of which involved collaborating with fellowjuicer Miggy Tejada for this, my favorite media guide cover of ALL TIME (-->).

Jason Giambi

I hate to include such a steatopygous, synthetic slugger onthe list, but I'm a sucker for the Soriano-esque follow-through; it really isquite attractive, even on a morbidly obese man. (#400*, for your viewing pleasure...has he thinned out abit?)

Gary Sheffield

The undisputed king* of bat speed*. And of scalding line drives; I'm prettycertain that I've actually seen third baseman leave their feet on Sheffield'slower-trajectory home runs.

Honorable Mention:Mike Piazza (wife), Mark McGwire (post on his H.O.F. candidacy likelyforthcoming, gotta save my superlatives)

***The Ted Kluszewski Memorial Pale Hose Division***

Frank Thomas

During Big Hurt's numerous injury-shortened seasons, I wasforced to forage for other "favorite" players; to make matters evenmore complicated, the clear runner-up for my fanhood affections, Joe Carter,retired in 1998, one year prior to Thomas' first major injury. Greg "Mad Dog" Maddux, Vlad"The Impaler" Guerrero, Randy "The Big Unit" Johnson,Carlos "El Caballo" Lee, Ray "Sugarman" Durham, Frankie"K-Rod" Rodriguez (circa 2001), Torii "Spiderman" Hunter,Damaso Marte (yep): nothing ever matched the excitement of a Thomas at-bat*, orthe effortless trepidation contained in the two syllables of his nickname.

Frank Thomas is a rather large human being. Nevertheless, I would not be surprisedif he holds a record for 'the most amount of time spent with both feet off theground during the process of swinging.' More accurately, such aerial gyrations were generally contained to thefollow-through, still, its pretty goddamn impressive. (Unfortunately, pictorial verification was hard to comeby. I did, however, manage to digup this impugnment of baseball fundamentals from Big Frank's brief Torontovacation. For a flicker-show demo,we turn to Big Frank's primary competition for this distinction, Carl Crawfordwho, if he drove the ball more frequently, would have to be called 'king.')

Being as Thomas willingly cooperated with the Sen. GeorgeMitchell, and that his career production followed (what could be construed as)a relatively "natural" arc, injuries included, I believe I canreasonably say that I've never seen a non-steroid Lusus naturae hit a baseballfarther* than Big Hurt. One day,in particular stands out: Comiskey Park...vs. the Devil Rays...a 480+ footmoonshot that nearly reached the left-field concourse (which, at the time, wasnot covered by the moronic "Chevorlet Fun-damentals" deck... Someone give this man a job.

Robin Ventura

So aptly named, Ventura truly was Robin to Big Frank'sbatman. Featuring a silky smoothstroke, Robin really could have fallen into several categories. In fact, he even made a bid for thebad-ass category, by charging notorious pitching roughneck Nolan Ryan...horseshit idea, though. You don't crossthe Vic Mackey of pitching bad-assedness.

Carlos Lee

In short, my favorite* home run swing* until lil' Upton camealong. And, to be fair, from apurely aesthetic standpoint, El Caballo beats Justin with his fluidity andunderstated flare (its just that Upton's home runs go sooo far!). In truth, I loved this home run swing since Lee broke in with the White Sox in the late ninties. I actually love many of the home run swings from that team; while Lee, Thomas and Ordonez garnered mentions on the list, Paul Konerko and the vastly underrated Ray Durham (best birth-given baseball name of the nineties) very well could have. Jose Valentin (from the left side) was pretty smooth in his own right, too. Mark L. Johnson...not so much. So to Mr. C-Lee: from the bat wiggle to the arching*one-handed follow-through, ending in a triumphant pose*, you are one bad-asscattle rancher.

Juan Uribe

In the past few years, preceding his 2009 departure to theGiants, I had grown to lament Juan Uribe at bats. Still, the paunchy middle-infielder had his moments. And a damn entertaining swing* to boot,especially on the rare occasions when he put the ball in play (career 19.6strikeout percentage), and could thus deploy his flaunty follow-through. Nevertheless, I'm sure glad thatcorpulent little sociopath is gone.

Alexei Ramirez

Game #162. Tiedscore in a must-win vs. Detroit. Win and face the Twins in a one game play-in for the AL Centralcrown. Sixth inning. One out. Bases loaded. Twelve-year-old Alexei Ramirez* at the dish...

Honorable Mention:Magglio Ordonez*

***The Natural(s) Division***

No more gimmicks, no more persona-driven auras, no moreutter reliance on bad attitude; nothing but swing. We're talking Roy Hobbs gripping Wonderboy, teetering backand forth from his ankles to the balls of his feet, straightening up as theball is pitched, and then unleashing a flurry of pure 'dog days' romanticismand nostalgic American hellfire on that little baseball. These are the men who force you to stopwhat you're doing when they step to the plate, the transcendent talents thatmake you stare transfixed into the TV screen like Fr. Brendan Smyth at theScripps National Spelling Bee. Anddespite the pulchritudinous fluidity or Mauer, the sublime nonchalance ofManny, the immaculate extension of Al or the violent explosiveness of Hamilton,make no mistake, Junior is king. Perhaps not today, at this advanced stage of his career, but let us notbe so quick to forget the rapturous poetry that was his swing, nay, his entiregame, and let us do that which would have been unthinkable last year--pay tosee Griffey's Mariners play, one last time, in 2009.

Joe Mauer*, Manny Ramirez*, Albert Pujols*,Josh Hamilton*, Ken Griffey Jr.*